The dam controversy
By Shahid M. Amin
IN any mature society, national issues are discussed in a rational manner, keeping in view the supreme interests of the country as a whole. Unfortunately, in our country, the building of a dam has been converted into an emotionally charged issue, full of sound and fury, with parochial and even secessionist overtones. There are accusations and counter-accusations; and some political parties are even threatening to break up the federation on the issue of building a dam.
In short, we have been making a sorry spectacle of ourselves. This can only give satisfaction to those sceptics who claim that Pakistan is a “failed” state; and to those antagonists in our neighbourhood and beyond who have always argued that a state based on the concept of a common religion cannot survive. Let those engaged in the current bitter debate in Pakistan on building dams ponder if this is the kind of message we want to send to the rest of the world.
Agriculture is the backbone of Pakistan’s economy. But our agriculture cannot survive and prosper without irrigation since almost 90 per cent of the country does not get sufficient rainfall. Fortunately, we have great rivers and level plains and have developed (thanks to the British colonial rule and our own efforts since independence) one of the most elaborate irrigation networks in the world.
However, in recent years, there has been a growing shortage of water for agriculture because of the growing population and the silting of the existing dams. Moreover, as much as 40 per cent of the total arable land in Pakistan remains uncultivated, mainly because of lack of irrigation. Hence, there is a consensus that the country needs to build up more water reservoirs. The issue really is as to how this objective is to be achieved.
There are several possible dams that could be built, namely, Kalabagh, Bhasha, Skardu-Katzarah, Akhori and Munda. President Musharraf said the other day that the Bhasha dam and be built first). Surprisingly, our experts are giving contradictory assessments about the respective pros and cons of these dams, including the cost of construction. It seems that the majority of experts are in favour of Kalabagh, whose construction can also be started straightaway.
All of these projects involve displacement of inhabitants currently living in the affected areas. Kalabagh would displace 120,000 people, Bhasha would displace 24,000 and Akhori 49,300 people. Skardu-Katzarah dam would displace 160,000 people and the city of Skardu would be submerged. That would produce a great deal of resentment.
The capacity of the Skardu-Katzarah dam would be more than the total capacity of all other dams. Its design life is estimated at 1,000 years compared to less than 100 years of every other proposed dam. According to the ex-chairman of IRSA, Skardu dam will generate 15,000 MW of power if 35 MAF is stored, which is possible. However, according to the Pieter Lieftinck Report by the World Bank, “the problem of accessibility (of Skardu) would be almost insuperable.” Similarly, Bhasha dam would require upgradation of 323-km of road from Havelian to the dam site and relocation of 140 km from Sazin to Raikot bridge.
The existing road (Karakorum Highway) links Pakistan with China and was completed in the 1970s by the two countries as an outstanding engineering feat. The new road would be even higher up in the mountains and will be extremely expensive to build. Moreover, Bhasha and Skardu-Katzarah are more exposed to seismic risk as compared to Kalabagh and Akhori.
According to the recent briefing given to our Senate, Kalabagh will have a water availability of 90 MAF, live storage of 6.1 MAF and will produce 3,600 MW of power and would have no logistic problem. Comparative figures for Bhasha will be 50 MAF, 7.34 MAF and 4,500 MW of electricity. Figures for Akhori will be 14 MAF, 7 MAF and 600 MW of electricity. Kalabagh would have no problem of power dispersal, while power generated at Bhasha (high up in the mountains) as also Skardu-Katzarah would be very difficult to disperse.
Hence, on a comparative basis, there is much to support the building of Kalabagh dam. President Pervez Musharraf was quite right in arguing in its favour. In fact, one must admire the president for going to the critics and opponents in all parts of Sindh to explain the case in favour of Kalabagh. No other Pakistani head of state ever showed such guts.
However, while the president’s sincerity should not be questioned, he has to be faulted for a lack of understanding of the current political realities. The fact is that most political circles in Sindh are against building the Kalabagh dam. It can be argued that they are being influenced by strong prejudices, bordering on paranoia, but their determination to oppose the Kalabagh dam is manifest.
Similarly, there is varying degree of opposition to the Kalabagh dam in the NWFP and Balochistan.
Under the circumstances, building Kalabagh would harm national unity. The president would be well advised to remember the saying from the old American West that “if catching a thief means burning down the whole city, then it is not worthwhile catching the thief.” The hard political reality is that national integrity and political stability is much more important than building a dam, whatever its benefits.
It is, of course, quite pathetic that Muslim League-N of Nawaz Sharif, which had always supported the building of Kalabagh dam, has remained a silent spectator while critics have been pillorying the whole project. In the past, Benazir’s Pakistan Peoples’ Party had also come out in favour of Kalabagh but it has now joined the project’s opponents. Political expediency has clearly influenced both of these parties. It seems that they would make common cause with any forces, if necessary, in order to get rid of Musharraf. One would have thought that, at least for the two major mainstream parties, the country’s welfare should be above considerations of political advantage. Of course, little good can be expected from the extremists.
Furthermore, one can only feel sad by the anti-Punjab sentiments that some circles in Sindh and NWFP are bent upon stirring. While over the years, Punjab has not been blameless in several instances, on the whole, it has shown magnanimity despite its larger size. For instance, in the last 58 years of Pakistan’s existence, Punjab has held the top political post only for about nine years (viz. by Prime Ministers Chaudhri Muhammad Ali and Feroz Khan Noon in the 1950s and by Mian Nawaz Sharif in the 1990s). On the other hand, Punjab was instrumental in bringing to power two Sindhi prime ministers viz. Z.A. Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto, and also supported Mohammad Khan Junejo. Together, they ruled Pakistan for nearly 14 years.
Moreover, Punjab has in the past even given its share of water to Sindh. The smaller provinces should also not forget that if the water requirements of Punjab are not met in the coming years, much of that province would lose its fertility, leading to an acute food shortage in the whole country. That would hurt, in particular, the food-deficit provinces of NWFP and Balochistan, as also Sindh.
Pakistan is already faced with a great many problems. It would be unwise to precipitate a crisis of national integration by rushing through the Kalabagh dam. Hence, the present government would be well advised at this time to think of alternatives to the Kalabagh dam. For instance, smaller dams could be given priority in the immediate future. The raising of Mangla and Tarbela Dams would also help. The de-silting of our existing dams should be given priority. More efficient use of the existing water resources should be explored. Seepage of canal water and its consequent wastage could be reduced by the lining of canals as also the water channels which link them to farms. Irrigation through water sprinkling system should be more widely practised. Crops like sugarcane consume too much water and could be replaced by more water-efficient crops.
The foregoing measures might still not be sufficient to remove the likelihood of serious water shortages in the next few years. But since Sindh is the most vociferous in opposing the building of Kalabagh dam, it must be prepared also to face the consequences of such opposition. Possibly, after facing water shortages and counting its losses due to non-construction of the Kalabagh dam, Sindh itself will, at some point of time, rethink the issue and come out in favour of this project. That would surely be a much more desirable scenario for building the Kalabagh dam.

