Quake-proof construction

THE damage reportedly caused to a number of buildings as a result of the powerful earthquake that also shook Islamabad, Lahore and Peshawar besides causing extensive damage in the Frontier and Azad Kashmir should serve as a wake-up call for the civic authorities. The ill-fated Margalla Towers aside, the Saudi-Pak Tower and a number of high-rise apartment complexes in the capital, and the Lahore Museum and Alfalah buildings in that city, have developed cracks, making them unsafe for use. Much of this damage, hopefully, will be repairable. This is not the first time that such harm has come to apparently strong and sturdy structures as a result of an earthquake. In 1905, a similar devastating quake had struck the hills of Kangra, now in Punjab’s neighbouring Himachal Pradesh in India. The tremor spilled over to cover a large area, and shook cities as far as Multan in the south and Kolkata in the east. The Lahore gazetteer noted that the city’s railway station, the town hall and the Mayo Hospital had developed similar cracks, which were successfully repaired and the buildings made habitable once again. All the three structures still stand, and they withstood the latest jolts. But while old structures should be repaired where doing so would suffice to keep them habitable, there could be no excuse for building new high-rises that are not quake-proof to an acceptable degree in parts of the country known to be vulnerable to earthquakes. The court orders issued in Islamabad, restraining the construction of all new multi-storey buildings until safety standards required to be observed in all under-construction buildings in the capital are notified is a timely step. The provincial high courts should follow suit and direct the civic authorities falling in their respective jurisdictions to do likewise.

With a high population growth rate and the rush of rural migrants to our cities, multi-storey buildings have become a fact of life. The existing ones, barring, God forbid, a catastrophe, are here to stay, and new ones will continue to be added to the big cities’ skylines. For instance, a look at Karachi makes it clear that long distances within the city and the lack of a reliable and efficient public transport system have necessitated that the city grow vertically. But how many of these high-rise commercial plazas and residential buildings are built to absorb tremors even of a lesser intensity than the ones experienced by Lahore and Islamabad on Oct 8? Earthquakes are not exactly an unknown phenomenon in Karachi. The last one that struck in Jan 2001 and devastated Bhuj, located barely 300 km away in Gujarat, India, had also rocked Karachi. The shocks had sent frightened citizens running into the streets, but luckily no serious damage was done.

As the government plans to build what it calls ‘model cities’ in place of those destroyed by the latest quake, it would be childish to rely on good luck alone and not require the new buildings to be quake-resistant. Minimum tremor-proofing standards need to be set and strictly enforced throughout the country for all new multi-storey construction to help minimize loss of human life and harm to infrastructure in case of a future calamity. This is one lesson that must be learnt from the enormous tragedy that has ravaged the northern areas.

Violence in Gilgit

THE latest bout of violence in Gilgit that has left at least 12 dead and many injured has exposed the hollowness of the government’s promise to tackle the law and order situation in the city. The trouble started on Thursday when a group of Shia students clashed with the Rangers who had detained a student allegedly involved in an earlier incident of violence. In the fracas that followed six people, including two Rangers personnel, were killed. This led to further skirmishes in which more people died. Curfew has been imposed in the city, making it impossible for residents and visitors to venture out of their houses or hotels to buy provisions or even to leave the area. Moreover, tempers are running high as hundreds of members of the Shia community blocked parts of the Karakoram Highway to protest against Thursday’s deaths. If not dealt with quickly and effectively by the political administration and the law enforcement agencies, violence can spread to other parts of the region, leading to greater death and destruction.

While Gilgit has been the scene of sectarian violence since the 1980s, matters have worsened of late, especially with the murder of a Shia religious scholar in January, and of a former police official in March, both apparently by sectarian elements. There have also been several incidents of gunmen killing passengers in buses plying on the Karakoram Highway. Besides the crumbling law and order situation, there is also dissatisfaction over other matters, including controversial textbook material, the political status of the Northern Areas which continues to be in limbo, and the worsening economy and development prospects of the region. All too often, businesses, offices and schools remain closed for long periods, causing hardship and resentment — especially among students who, as a result, are drawn into sectarian politics. All this has also affected tourism, with countries issuing travel advisories warning against visits to the area. Given that the Northern Areas Legislative Council remains an ineffectual body, it is up to the federal government to show greater resolve in tackling the various problems, with a view to rooting out sectarianism and promoting development in the area.

Relief for remote valleys

WHILE the relief effort is underway in the areas affected by the earthquake of October 8, there are some remote places like Neelum valley, northeast of Muzaffarabad and Leepa valley in Bagh district, where not much aid has reached so far. Aerial surveys by a UN official suggest that the devastation may be even greater there, especially because the quake’s epicentre was roughly 10 kilometres northeast of Muzaffarabad, which is where the Neelum valley begins. The tragedy is that those who live in the valley used to suffer the most in the days when there was daily shelling across the Line of Control because the Neelum (called Kishenganga on the Indian side) river that runs through the valley is the dividing line. The valley hosts 15 camps housing around 28,000 refugees who came from the Indian side of the LoC many years ago and so far there is no official word on the status of these camps.

Also, some survivors from these valleys have managed to walk all the way from their villages to Muzaffarabad and the tales that they have brought speak of utter devastation and distress. They speak about growing anger and resentment among the survivors in these valleys’ villages because it has now been a week since the quake hit and they have nothing at all to eat. The army has sent some soldiers carrying relief supplies on mule and horseback to Neelum valley but what is needed is for the roads that go all the way to the end of this and Leepa valley to be immediately re-opened. Until that happens, air-dropping of relief supplies is urgently called for. This the government must ensure without the slightest delay.

Future of relations with China

‘CHINA-PAKISTAN relationship is coming to an end?’ was the provocative title of the paper presented by a Chinese scholar at a seminar on Pakistan-China relations, recently organized by the Area Study Centre, Far East & South East Asia, University of Sindh, Jamshoro where this writer also had the opportunity to make a presentation.

Mercifully, the paper by the Chinese scholar concluded that the Pakistan-China traditional friendship was not coming to an end. However, the relationship was confronted by challenges and opportunities in the changing regional and global scenario with the latter overwhelming the former.

Consequently in the post-Cold War scenario, it had changed to “qualified support” based on strategic factors as against “entente” between selfless and traditional friends during the Cold War era.

I find it interesting that Chinese scholars are examining the future directions of Pakistan-China relations, instead of assuming, as many of us in Pakistan tend to do mistakenly, that Pakistan-China friendship is there to stay forever unaffected by changing circumstances and strategic realities. The occasion also provides an opportunity to revisit this relationship with a view to prognosticating its likely future course.

The history of Pakistan-China relations shows that they have already passed through three distinct phases. Phase I, spanning the period from 1950 to 1961, was marked by normal bilateral relations lacking the friendship and warmth of later years. The reasons for the lack of warmth in Pakistan-China relations for about a decade after the establishment of diplomatic relations are not difficult to fathom.

Pakistan, a few years after its independence, joined the western camp through its membership of the Baghdad Pact/Cento and Seato as well as by signing bilateral security agreements with the US. China, on the other hand, was a strong critic of the western bloc whom it accused of harbouring imperialistic and hegemonistic tendencies. It was natural, therefore, that Sino-Pakistan relations during this period lacked the depth of the later years.

Phase II of Pakistan-China relations, which was marked by close friendship and deep warmth and cordiality, began in 1962 with the commencement of border negotiations and continued until 1980. During this period, China extended resolute political support and generous military and economic assistance to Pakistan. One need only recall Chinese support to Pakistan in the 1965 Pakistan-India war to get a flavour of this period. China also extended support to the struggle of the Kashmiri people for the exercise of their right of self-determination as stated in the joint communique issued after Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto’s visit to China in May 1976.

The third phase in Pakistan-China relations began roughly around 1980 with the emergence of a pragmatic leadership in China under Deng Xiaoping and continues till today. With this phase, Pakistan-China friendship entered a mature phase in which the two sides, while maintaining warm friendly relations and close cooperation in diverse fields based on the convergence of their strategic interests, were aware of both the potential and limitations of their relationship.

China under Deng Xiaoping adopted in late 1970s the slogans of development at home and peace abroad as the supreme Chinese national objectives. In pursuance of the objective of the maintenance of peace on its borders, China undertook negotiations for the settlement of border disputes with the Soviet Union and then India. In fact, China adopted a conscious policy of avoiding involvement in any major armed conflict by pursuing a low risk foreign policy which it continues to follow till today.

These changes in China’s internal and external policies could not but affect Pakistan-China relations. Consequently, during the 1980s, there was some dilution of the Chinese support to Pakistan on the Kashmir issue. China also stopped giving grants to Pakistan on the plea that being a developing country, it could not afford to do so. Nevertheless, Pakistan-China friendship remained strong. The period also witnessed Pakistan-China cooperation in resisting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan.

The victory of the West in the Cold War and the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 brought about a radical transformation of the global strategic environment. The United States emerged as the sole super power. China now perceives a threat to its security from the US because of the latter’s global hegemonic designs and policy of containing China rather than Russia. Both China and Russia, therefore, have been gravitating towards each other.

It is hardly surprising, therefore, that the joint communique issued at Moscow on July 2, 2005, after the summit meeting between Presidents Hu Jintao and Vladimir Putin denounced “the aspiration for monopoly and domination in international affairs” and called for an end to “attempts to divide nations into leaders and those being led.” In August 2005, the two countries launched their largest joint military exercise in modern history to send a political signal to Washington.

The Sino-Indian dialogue, driven by a different set of strategic and economic considerations, has also picked up speed culminating in Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to India in April 2005 when the two countries agreed to establish an India-China Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity. They also decided to increase the bilateral trade to $20 billion by 2008. While India reiterated its recognition of Tibet as part of China, Beijing recognized Sikkim as part of India.

It would be unrealistic to assume that Pakistan-China relations would remain unaffected by these changes in the global and regional strategic environment. Henceforth, the convergence of strategic interests, the strength of economic and commercial ties, the substance in military cooperation, the vitality of cultural links and mutual support on issues of deep interest to the two countries will determine the future course of Pakistan-China relations rather than any romantic notions about Pakistan-China friendship being “all weather” and “time tested.”

A close look at Pakistan-China relations during the 1990s and the past few years of the new century reveals that this relationship essentially remains healthy as evidenced by the signing of the “Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Good Neighbourly Relations” during Premier Wen Jiabao’s visit to Pakistan in April 2005. Under the agreement, each contracting party would support the other’s efforts to safeguard its territorial integrity and would not join any alliance or bloc which infringes upon the sovereignty, security and territorial integrity of the other contracting party.

The real strength of Pakistan-China friendship lies in the convergence of the long-term strategic interests of the two countries. It is obvious by now that notwithstanding its fast developing trade and economic relations with Beijing, the US has adopted a well-calculated policy of building up India as a counterweight to China. Significant in this regard is the US declaration of March this year to help India become a “major world power in the 21st century.”

The vote by India in the IAEA Board of Governors meeting held last month in support of a resolution against Iran, when most of the non-aligned countries including Pakistan abstained, shows how far India is prepared to go to please the US in the hope of securing continued US support in nuclear, defence, economic and political fields. Therefore, China, despite its own growing relations with India, is likely to view the fast-growing US-India relations with some apprehension. Its effort, however, would be not to take any steps which would push India into the lap of the US.

On the other hand, Pakistan, despite the progress in some aspects of its composite dialogue with India and the amelioration of tensions between the two countries, will continue to need in the foreseeable future China’s support to face a possible threat to its security from India. Pakistan because of its strategically important location also provides China, especially its western part, with easy access to the Arabian sea and the vast oil and gas resources of the Middle East. This convergence of strategic interests, more than anything else, provides a sound basis for the further development of Pakistan-China relations.

Pakistan-US relations have their own importance for Islamabad. However, we need to remember that the US has walked away from Pakistan several times in the past. There is no guarantee that this would not happen again. Further, whereas Washington has decided to build up a strategic partnership with India based on the convergence of their long-term interests, its relations with Pakistan suffer from serious limitations and uncertainties.

We should not, therefore, allow the development of our relations with the US to impinge upon our critically important relationship with China. On the other hand, Chinese policymakers need to take care that the fast growing Indo-China relations do not have a dampening effect on Pakistan-China relations.

Keeping in view the foregoing, Pakistan must pay due attention to the development of its friendly relations and cooperation with China instead of taking this friendship for granted. We must especially redouble our efforts to strengthen further our ties with China in economic and commercial fields. In addition, bilateral cooperation in political, cultural and military fields should be encouraged.