KARACHI, Sept 24: Punjab maintained an average annual growth rate of 4.5 per cent in sharp contrast to 3.7 per cent in rest of Pakistan during the decade of 19091-92 to 2002-03, a World Bank report on Punjab Economy reveals.
Another report of the World Bank put the annual growth rate of Sindh at 2.2 per cent during last decade which is far behind Punjab and also much less than the average annual national growth rate of 4.1 per cent.
But the World Bank report on Punjab economy is much more candid on the GDP calculation issue. “As in most other developing countries of the world, in Pakistan too the calculation of GDP contains some methodological weaknesses,” says the World Bank report. Two of the obvious shortcomings that it points out are the periodicity, (the national accounts are compiled on annual basis only) and the aggregate nature of these accounts. “These shortcomings have hampered economic monitoring and regional planning in Pakistan,” it says.
While there is a hint to attempt construction of a quarterly GDP during the last fiscal year 04-05 the World Bank report says that no official attempt has been made to construct a provincial GDP. It points out that the construction of the provincial GDP series is a large and complex undertaking, as disaggregated data are needed for a very large number of province specific variables. Moreover, the exercise is also time-intensive as a large volume of data needs to be analyzed to derive consistent and robust estimates.
The World Bank report concedes time constraints and data inadequacies main hurdles in calculation of Punjab’s share in the national economy while pointing out in detail how the available data and information was obtained and processed.
Credibility of Pakistan’s information and data in various sectors of the economy has been questioned by the various international agencies. Even the present government expressed a strong disapproval on the competence of the Federal Bureau of Statistics a few years ago when it held back a report on poverty.
Even the compilation of international trade figures is also beset with a number of problems. The aggregate import-export figures of August 2005 have been made public but item wise details is still awaited when September is in its last week. The delay is being attributed to technical faults.
The FBS staff complains of lack of support from the government agencies like customs and the private sector particularly industry and trade who consider it a waste of time to share information of their production and sale with statisticians.
For last many years, the government has been announcing restructuring of the FBS but has been unable to proceed with because “we are not able to find qualified statisticians and analysts” to quote a senior government officer in the finance ministry.
In India, there is a statistical institution of international repute but the Pakistan government has strong reservations of sending its officers there for acquiring high qualifications. Those who have acquired qualifications from the European and American institutes of statisticians they are not ready to work in Pakistan on the salaries being offered to them.
The government has opted to continue with the status quo in the data and information gathering and processing which gives ample opportunity to claim 8.4 per cent economic growth and an all round growth in all the sectors.
