08 November 2004	Monday	24 Ramazan 1425

Wheat production has always been a debatable issue though Pakistan has been a net importer. However, in the past few years the issue has become controversial due to prolonged shortage of the commodity and an unprecedented price hike in flour prices.

Being major food crop, wheat occupies nearly 38 per cent of the total cultivated area. Wheat contributes 12.5 per cent in the value-added agriculture and a little above three per cent in the GDP.

The world's per capita consumption stands around 99 kg/annum. However due to lack of credential data of Pakistan's per capita annual consumption, it has not been possible to determine the true requirements. It is due to this reason that our estimated requirement has hardly been proved correct over the years. The provincial food departments calculate per capita consumption at 124kg, while the Agricultural Prices Commission estimates it at 135kg per annum.

Against this dual official estimates the government has calculated wheat requirement this year at 20 million tons. It includes 10.55 million tons for Punjab, 4.31 million tons for Sindh, 2.97 million tons for the NWFP, 0.97 million tons for Balochistan, one million tons for seed, feed, etc., and 0.20 million tons for others. After calculation, the government fixed the production target at 20.15 million tons for the year 2004-05 as compared to last year's actual production of 19.77 million tons.

However, if we take into account conservative requirement of seed, feed, post harvest and storage losses, carryover stocks and smuggling of the commodity to Afghanistan then our government-calculated requirement of 20 million tons appears insufficient and may require imports by the mid of 2005 once again.

It is worth mentioning that last year the government had fixed the production target at 20 million tons which could not be achieved due to the shortage of irrigation water. If we recall those contributing factors, which are still prevalent, then this year's 2015 million tons target appears unrealistic.

If judged in the context of the projected 45 per cent water shortfall in Rabi season, the actual production is more likely to be lower than the last year's.

It may be questioned as to how a larger area under wheat cultivation this year can be successfully irrigated when less area with 45 per cent shortage supply missed the target.

Another unfavourable factor for wheat crop is the shortage and high price of urea fertilizer in the country. Although the government is importing 1.7 million tones of urea fertilizer which would be available to farmers by the end of November at subsidized price of Rs450 per bag but its late arrival is likely to disturb wheat sowing, particularly in Sindh. Further, it is not understandable that why the government has allowed the export of 50,000 tons of urea fertilizer to Afghanistan at a time when the country itself is facing shortages.

Besides fertilizer availability, certified wheat seed is also reported to be short in early sowing areas of Sindh because of the continued ban on inter-provincial wheat movement by the Punjab government, though it has repeatedly announced of lifting such restrictions which till yet have proved to be only announcements. Seed dealers of Sindh are still being denied transportation of seed by the Punjab Food Department.

Moreover, the ongoing controversy between the government and the sugar industry to begin the crushing season from October instead of November, as usual, has not been resolved as yet despite the threatening deadline by the Chief Minister of Sindh to 32 sugar mills of the province to start the crushing by October 20.

Due to this delay and the pre-occupation of land in Sindh and southern Punjab by sugarcane crop, wheat sowing has been delayed significantly. No one would deny the fact that timely sowing of not only wheat but of all crops has the most vital role in yields. It would be interesting to note that one-day delay in the crushing season means non-cultivation of wheat on 4,500 acres because wheat is cultivated on the same land, which is cleared after harvesting of sugarcane crop.

Furthermore, while fixing the wheat production target of this year there is no mentioning of the government's action for wheat sowing in the rice-wheat and cotton-wheat belts of Punjab which contributes over 70 per cent of wheat production. Wheat in Punjab is sown usually late in rice-wheat and cotton-wheat belts as against the optimum planting time of October 20 to November 21. Researchers are of the view that delay of successive one day in wheat sowing can results in the reduction of yield by 35kg per hectare.

In the presence of the above mentioned manmade constraints, the chances of achieving 20.15 million tons wheat production target and becoming self sufficient once again are slim. The government, therefore, needs to take certain measures rather than keep itself stuck to merely lip services.

In order to achieve the lost title of wheat sufficient country, the government needs to work on one point agenda that it will ensure nothing but provide all required inputs to farmers at right time and let do the rest by the nature.

It is a proven fact that after the flood of 1992, an experiment was made in Punjab in which small farmers having less then 10 hectare land holding were provided all inputs like fertilizer, seed, credit etc., just at right time. The results were that the yield was 300 per cent higher than the formers yield of that area and 200 per cent higher than the average national yield. This miracle was achieved only by virtue of better management of resources. Results imply that if we provide farmers the required inputs on time, there will be no need to import wheat.

Our agriculture-based economy should not suffer from the shortage of staple food. The government should take every possible step to ensure food security of people as its import costs a lot on national exchequer in the shape of foreign exchange.

A major breakthrough in the agriculture sector, particularly in wheat crop, is required to avert the repeated catastrophic situation. To become not only self-sufficient but can export as well, Pakistan possess all basic ingredients such as fertile land, sufficient irrigation water, hard working farmers, certified wheat varieties and modern technology in abundance, provided these are utilized to full, which is possible with a firm will by our planners and policy makers.