NEW YORK: New citizen voters could make or break the US presidential race, experts say, but they are also more vulnerable to intimidation and harassment on Election Day.

A new report by the Immigration Policy Centre, 'Power and Potential: The Growing Clout of New Citizens', found that in the last election period, the number of new adult citizens - predominantly Latinos and Asian and Pacific Islanders - who were registered to vote grew 20 per cent, to a total of 6.2 million people.

With Republican incumbent George W Bush and his Democratic opponent Senator John Kerry virtually tied in the polls - and the last race decided by a measly 537 votes - this means that the newest US citizens could well determine the next leader of the nation.

Political parties and grassroots organisations have signed up more than six million new voters in the latest campaign, many of them immigrants. But they have also mobilised an army of poll- watchers to aggressively challenge voters' credentials - especially those who are newly registered.

While the monitors are ostensibly there to prevent fraud, many civil rights groups fear they will profile voters based on race or ethnicity, making new citizens easy targets.

"There's definitely a risk that these folks will show deference when confronted by authority, especially since Sept 11," said Ben Johnson, director of the Immigration Policy Centre.

"It doesn't always come naturally to assert your rights when they're challenged, so the government really needs to take steps to endure that (new citizens) aren't scared away from the polls," he told IPS.

Between 1996 and 2000, new citizens accounted for more than one-half of the net increase in registered voters. Their votes are expected to carry added weight in toss-up states like Arizona, Florida and Pennsylvania, where victory will likely hinge on a handful of ballots.

Although new citizen voters tend to favour the Democratic Party, they also identify as independent or undecided in significant numbers, Johnson said.

"In general, the Democrats have done a better job of capturing that vote, but it's not set in stone," he said. "People who are running for office really need to understand and connect with these new voters."

The Asian, Pacific Islander American (APIA) community has seen a particularly dramatic surge in political participation, with the number of APIA votes rising by 22 per cent in the last election cycle. As of the 2002 census, over six million APIAs were eligible to vote, and one-half of them were registered.

According to the centre's report, new citizens who are registered have higher rates of voter turnout than registered US natives.

"The APIA community has a high level of participation, but also a lot of language barriers," explained Janelle Hu, national director of the Asian and Pacific Islander American Vote 2004, which runs projects in 19 states. "The voting act requires that they be given assistance, but a lot of these services are still not readily available in some communities."

With just nine days before the polls open, some new voters are still waiting for their registration cards, she said, due to a last-minute surge in applications. In Michigan State, for example, 10,000 applications were handed in on the deadline.

"I trust they will all be processed in time for Election Day, but we've been also educating people about asking for provisional ballots," Hu said. "Especially in the APIA community, with the different ethnic names and confusion that may spawn from that, you have to be prepared to demand your rights."

Provisional ballots are used when a voter's name cannot be found on a voters' list; they allow the person to cast a vote and then have his or her registration double-checked at a later time.

"The one thing we have to champion is that people are really engaged in this process," Hu concluded. "They are organising, and making sure that their friends and family are registered. Everyone sees how close the election is and knows that each vote makes a difference."

One group that is a likely target on Election Day is Arab and Muslim Americans, said Laila Al-Qatami, communications director of the American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee, especially because of fears raised by the Bush administration that terror attacks could disrupt the polling.

More than two million Arab Americans live in swing states like Michigan, Illinois and Ohio, where instances of blatant intimidation have occurred in the past.-Dawn/The InterPress News Service.