Will the farmers of Punjab succeed in meeting the target of 8.2 million bales fixed for them by the provincial government for the cotton crop now under cultivation?
The answer is in the affirmative as well as in the negative. The critical factor is availability of water.
Reports of sowing are both positive and negative though the good news is from the non-core areas, that is regions being developed for growing cotton. They are ahead by a distance in sowing and appear set for joining the cotton-producing club of the province. But the core areas, the parts of Punjab identified with cotton production are lagging behind in sowing.
Statistics paint a picture of success with reports that the crop has been cultivated on more than five per cent more land in comparison with this time of the season last year.
But success is mainly in non-core areas while sowing in the cotton belt of Punjab comprising southern districts is two per cent short of last year's cultivation.
This is not a pleasing view but its implications are worse. Water has been flowing in canals of non core-areas while canals of southern Punjab are parched and so are many of the fields where the new crop should be in an early stage of germination at this stage. One can ask the question why sowing is only two percent less than the last year if water is scarce.
The answer is quite simple. Farmers who have their own tube-wells have managed to cultivate the crop but those not owning such a facility are waiting for the canals to flow with water.
The conclusion to be drawn from this situation is straightforward: big landowners have harnessed water to meet their requirements from the depths of the earth but small farmers lack resources to follow their example. The message is: more wretchedness for the wretched.
This isn't a new development, only enactment of familiar scenario and conditions. Neither is this problem confined to cotton crop. The Punjab government seems to be aware of the issue and it decided to reduce abiana for tail end farmers by 50 percent earlier this year.
Most small farmers of the cotton belt who are waiting for water in the canals that irrigate their fields happen to be small farmers. Was this a generous gesture and thoughtful measure? Hardly: reduced rate of abiana is no compensation for reduction in crop size, something that shortage of water is bound to cause.
The farmer loses income and a display of benevolence does not fill either his belly or give is family resources for survival above poverty line. Each time that a farmer suffers because of water, he is pushed a few points closer to the wrong side of the subsistence level.
Even otherwise, if abiana is reduced, there is the rebate on electricity charges for farmers using tube-wells. The facility is not to be grudged because all farmers are making a great contribution towards food security, national resources, indeed towards the very survival of the country's economy.
A saving grace for the crop could be increased deployment of bed and furrow planting that minimizes the use of water for the crop. It saves a lot of water in comparison with flood irrigation and makes for more effective watering of the crop.
Another advantage from this method of cultivation is saving seed. While water conserved by bed planting is about 30 percent, seed is calculated to be 50 percent of the quantity used by drill method of cultivation.
Here again the issue of resources confronts small landowners. While the administration cannot increase the amount of water available for crops, district governments can certainly play an effective role in providing the latest implements to farmers.
There is a provincial government plan for this purpose and resources also exist but district governments are not known to have implemented it for the service of farmers on a wide scale so far.
This is unfortunate because if the new 'grass roots' system cannot harness existing and obtainable resources for the good of the farmers, what use is there for dispensing with a system and installing a new one in its place? It is an issue the district level administration must address in earnest.
There is still time for providing tools to farmers because the cut off date for cotton sowing is June 15. Any sowing carried out after that point would be translated in to loss of produce.
It is also time for the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) to play a positive role by making the best and optimum use of available water. Sowing in Sindh has been completed which means that the cotton crop of the province does not immediately require irrigation.
In Punjab, water is needed right now and the Irsa should be able to meet the needs of both provinces without causing misgivings among the provinces and creating a situation in which allegations start sounding like genuine grievances and water distribution can be read as depriving some segment of the farming community of its right to water for crops, indeed to earn a living.
As for farmers, both big and small, they should realize the importance of judicious use of water as against over irrigating that does not produce better results and ultimately becomes the source of water logging of land. Proper use of water would accord longevity to their lands for raising crops and would indeed make for better crops.
Great responsibility lies with the provincial authorities to effectively carry out extension work, underwrite the problems of small farmers, ensure the availability of pesticides to farmers at later stage, closely monitor the growth of the crop, make better plant protection arrangements, particularly in view of the last year's experience when many farmers suffered loss of produce because of delayed warnings against pest attacks and last but not the least make district administrations active.
But the most vital role is to be rendered by the Irsa and Punjab's irrigation department. They should use water imaginatively, follow crop needs in every region and ensure that maximum benefit is obtained from the diminished resources of water. They can help farmer's counter natural disadvantages and sustain the cotton sector that has become pivotal to the national economy.
