ANKARA: The stage has been set many times before in Cyprus but this time a solution is almost guaranteed. When the leaders of Greek and Turkish Cyprus sit down for reunification negotiations on Thursday there will be no turning back.

Under the mediation of the United Nations' Alvaro de Soto, Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopolous and veteran Turkish Cypriot leader Rauf Denktash will meet in the UN-controlled "no-mans land" that divides the eastern Mediterranean island to thrash out differences over UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's blueprint for the island to be reunited by May 1 when the island is due to join the European Union.

Unlike every other time the two sides have sat down together, the negotiations cannot fail. Thanks to a deal reached after marathon talks last week in New York, Annan will have the right to "fill in the blanks" himself any points where the two sides cannot agree and then put his version of a solution to a referendum in both communities.

That rules out the repeat of what has become almost a cliche for past talks: Denktash walking out and the Turkish side blamed for failure. The New York formula has been widely seen as an enormous climbdown by Denktash and a big win for the government of mainland Turkey.

Denktash has repeatedly described the Annan plan as extremely unfair on Turkish Cyprus and only in December again said it was "dead and buried". So what made him change his mind? "Denktash was convinced that he could no longer afford to be accused of spoiling international efforts for a settlement," columnist Burak Bekdil wrote in the Turkish Daily News.

"He could not risk being singled out by the mainland Turks as the man who wrecked their EU hopes." Knowing that it would never receive a date for the start of membership negotiations if there was no Cyprus solution, the Turkish government put enormous pressure on Denktash to accept Annan's preconditions.

Having agreed in New York on the framework for the negotiations, the two sides will now discuss the nuts and bolts of the Annan plan. Both sides are believed to be seeking wide-ranging changes to the plan that foresees a weak federal government overseeing two equal component states.

The main arguments are believed to be over boundary changes and the right of return for refugees. Denktash is unhappy over the amount of land the Turkish side will have to hand over, while Papadopolous is under pressure for an increase in the number of Greek Cypriot refugees allowed to return to their former homes in the Turkish north.

There are also a myriad of other differences concerning compensation, water rights and the status of mainland Turks who have emigrated to the north, to name just a few.

The talks are expected to be difficult but they have a strict deadline. If they fail to reach a comprehensive deal by March 22, representatives from Turkey and Greece will have one week to resolve their differences before Annan takes over.

Referenda take place in April in both communities - the only possible stumbling block on the way to a solution. With the enormous carrot of EU membership, Turkish Cypriots are expected to vote overwhelmingly in favour. If no solution is reached by May 1, Turkish Cypriots will be excluded from the EU and its generous funding programmes.

"It is highly unlikely that the Turkish Cypriots, who will be voting between remaining poor or getting richer, will reject the final document," according to Mehmet Ali Birand, a Turkish journalist who has for years argued for a solution.

The stumbling block could be the Greek Cypriot people. Faced with worries over how the much richer south will pay for improvements in the north, the effect on wages of thousands of Turkish Cypriots seeking employment in the south and plus the fear of the unknown after 30 years of relative peace, Greek Cypriots may vote against.

Most analysts believe, however, that if Greek Cypriot leaders back the plan it should pass. Turkey invaded Cyprus in 1974 in response to a coup on the island by Greek Cypriots seeking union with mainland Greece. Since then the island and the capital Nicosia have been divided with little contact and much mistrust between the two peoples.

After countless attempts to reach a deal over the past 30 years, never before has a solution seemed so close. By May 1, the Cyprus problem looks like being history. -dpa