NEW DELHI, Jan 1: India wants to become a super power by 2020, but it is being held back, according to its own socio-economic intellectuals, by its own hegemonic ambitions in the region
, its massive energy deficit and its economy's continued dependence on the monsoon.
India, at this point in its development, appears to be obsessed with China's economic development and therefore, tends to make comparisons all the time with this larger neighbour of its, though its exports are still one per cent of world trade compared to four per cent of China's.
The anticipated growth rate of seven per cent this year appears to have given India some kind of self-confidence and it has started flaunting it inside and outside the country.
However, it longs for support from the US and Japan in its bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security council. For the same reason, New Delhi wants to get the Kashmir issue resolved one way or the other at the earliest.
And it wants to approach the oncoming energy crisis with a set of innovative ideas, including gas pipelines passing through Pakistan from Iran and Turkmenistan. And finally it wants to build its conventional as well as non-conventional muscles in such a way as to send messages across the continents that a new superpower has arrived.
However, people here are also mindful that a seven per cent GDP growth rate comes after a year of 4.6% growth rate, preceded by a performance of 5.7 per cent and 3.9 per cent, which still shows the average growth rate to be in a low trajectory.
India's tele-density is a mere 3.2 per 100, and with 58 million of 180 million households with gas connections suggesting that most of the households with an income under Rs 80,000 per annum are without cheap and subsidized energy.
Infant mortality in India is 69 per 1000, life expectancy is about 63 years, rate of literacy is recorded at 65 per cent, energy sufficiency is 527 billion kwh and consumption is a mere 379 kwh per capita. This makes the reality rather too unpalatable for those who are looking at 2020 with a lot of anticipation.
India, however, ranks third with arms transfer agreements valued at eight billion dollars during 1999-2002. India's reserves have gone up to 100 billion dollars - almost equal to the import bill for 15 months. But the shortfall in infrastructure, particularly in power and education, is said to be staggering.
And with about 26 per cent of the population still living inpoverty, stagnating rates of unemployment, and its heavy dependence on agriculture, which still amounts to 25 per cent of GDP and 70 per cent of employment, means that a bad monsoon can nullify the gains of the current improvements.
The country continues to remain politically dependent on subsidies, swelling fiscal deficits that limit growth and investment in health and education. India does appear poised to reap more from the FDI in the coming years. Until now the Indian diaspora has accounted far less than 10 per cent of the foreign money flowing to India.
But now it seems that the Indians living abroad have understood the potential of their mother country and are coming back in hordes looking for investment avenues. And India hopes that with their help the country could become the world's technological lab.
A lot of India is shining these days, with Bangalore, Hyderabad and even parts of New Delhi giving a look of having reached. However, Indians are still not talking about takeoffs, but congratulating each other that perhaps the train is all set to leave the station.
On Jan 10, India is hosting a conference of its NRIs (non- resident Indians) in New Delhi and this meet is expected to yield results that are expected to take India to heights it has never seen before.
