December 30, 2003	Tuesday	Ziqa’ad 6, 1424

KARACHI, Dec 29: Selective buying from spinners for superior quality cotton on Monday helped in maintaining steady outlook in the local cotton market when trading resumed in the morning.

However, the market sentiment remained overwhelmed by final crop estimates, which kept most of the buyers to the sidelines. Barring some buying from quality conscious spinners there was no support from any quarter.

There were strong feeling among the cotton brokers that in the absence of any independent body to estimate cotton crop production the trade of this commodity at times become highly risky and volatile.

“Though the cotton crop season has progressed more than half way yet the government and private sector continues to give estimates of the production which indicates that trading in cotton is highly speculative and risky,” asserted cotton consultant Naseem Usman.

He suggested that cotton crop production estimates should be carried out by an independent body such as banks but by allowing the ginners to do this job it gives the opportunity to vested interest to move things as per their desire, he added.

Consequently, most of the buyers preferred to wait till the cotton production figures are released by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) in the first week of January 2004.

On the other hand, the long Christmas and new year holidays in the West and closure of New York cotton market was yet another factor which keeps the buyers away because prices quoted in the world markets directly influence domestic market rates.

There is generally confusion and cotton brokers are perturbed over the situation as wild estimates from different section as well as government keep them shaky about their future line of action. The PCGA is estimating cotton output at 8.5 to 8.6 million bales and official production estimates are put at 9.2 million bales.

Nevertheless, in any case there is a big shortfall in production and domestic consumption and the country will have to import substantial quantity of cotton from abroad.

Reports that China has given permission to its textile industry to import in the first quarter of next year gave the impression that on re-opening of world markets after the Christmas and new year holidays the world cotton prices may go up.

The Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) spot rates remained unchanged despite the fact that on ready market prices slightly move higher.

Moderate business activity was recorded on ready counter where 1,400 bales from station Khanpur Mehar were done at Rs3300; 1200 bales from Ghothki done at Rs3300; 1200 bales from Rohri done at Rs3300; 1200 bales from Khanpur Mehar done at Rs3300; 800 bales from Derki done at Rs3300 and 200 bales from Rahimyar Khan done at Rs3300.