The deepening quagmire
By Najmuddin A. Shaikh
THE tragic bombing of the sacred shrine — the mosque of Hazrat Ali — in Najaf on Friday last, was perhaps the most significant manifestation of the growing insecurity in Iraq and perhaps the most significant success so far achieved by the remnants of the Saddam regime. The attack, which killed scores of Iraqis, including prominent cleric Ayatollah Muhammad Baqer al-Hakim — and which came less than a week after a bomb went off at the home of Mr. Hakim’s uncle, Grand Ayatollah Muhammad Said al-Hakim — has convulsed the Shia community.
It followed close on the heels of the bombing of the UN headquarters in which the secretary general’s representative, Mr. Sergio De Mello, along with a large number of other UN workers were killed, and an attack on the Jordanian embassy in Baghdad earlier in the month. Forensic evidence has apparently been found suggesting that the same explosive material and the same method was used in fabricating the devices that ravaged the Jordanian embassy, the UN’s Baghdad headquarters and the mosque in Najaf.
Where does the finger of suspicion point? According to western press reports based on analyses by “terrorism experts”, the on-the-spot reporters and official press briefings, it is believed that while offering only token resistance to the invading American forces, Saddam had made elaborate plans for a post-occupation harassment of the American forces and the reduction of the country to a state of chaos.
Saddam had drawn from the Iraqi central bank a few days before the collapse of the regime some $1 or $1.2 billion in cash and part of this money is now being used to finance the activities of Saddam loyalists from the old intelligence network, the army and Tikritis and, most importantly, buying or acquiring the services of free-lance mercenaries or extremists from the Islamic world.
Jason Burke of the Guardian, for example, surmises that even while Saddam diehards may have arranged the attack on the UN headquarters the driver of the explosive packed vehicle, who also died in the attack was probably an Islamic militant. President Bush, on August 22 making his first appraisal of the Iraqi situation after the bombing of the UN building, said the persistent killings, which have included U.S. military personnel, Iraqis and dozens of United Nations relief workers, are the combined work of former Baath Party officials loyal to Hussein and “Al Qaeda-type fighters” who are infiltrating the country. Others believe that given the Saddam regime’s antipathy towards the extremists it could be the extremists who have been able to enter Iraq from across unsecured borders and may have acted on their own or in unison with local sympathisers who, possibly had no connection with Saddam. Addressing the same subject on the same day on Al-Jazeera TV in Qatar, US deputy secretary Armitage said that “the borders (of Iraq) are quite porous, as you’d imagine, and the fact that we’ve captured a certain number of foreign fighters in Baghdad and around Iraq indicates that the ways that these people are getting into the country is from Iran and from Syria and from Saudi Arabia”.
While he could not fix the blame for the ingress on any of these countries, he said: “but, at a minimum, I can state that these fighters are not being stopped at the borders, and this is something that causes us a great deal of concern.” He went on to add, “I must say that post-May 12th, and the horrible bombing and terrorist attack in Riyadh, I think the Saudi government has had a renewed effort to try to bring extremism under control because they realize that those who perpetrated the bombing in Riyadh are as intent on harming the people of Saudi Arabia as they are in attacking American or foreign interests”.
Infiltration from Saudi Arabia has however been a hot topic. There were reports that more than 3,000 Saudis had slipped into Iraq to fight the Americans. Most experts tended to dismiss this report as exaggerated but maintained that some hundreds of foreign militants had entered Iraq. They held the American forces responsible for not according top priority to the securing of the frontiers.
After the Najaf blast the first report to the AP news agency, from the Iraqi police, responsible for the investigation stated that 19 men had been arrested, that many of them were Saudis, that all of them belonged to the Wahabi sect, and that all of them had Al Qaeda connections. The Saudis have denied these reports pointing out that while there has been talk of Saudi infiltrators no solid evidence has been presented. The Americans too have said nothing to confirm the AP report but it became the basis for some further “analytical reports” on the role of the jihadi elements, whether they were part of the Al Qaeda or not.
A London based analyst points out that Islamic web sites around the world are already featuring Iraq as the focal point of a jihad or holy war against the United States and that the appeals for jihadists to travel to Iraq are reminiscent in some ways of the campaign two decades ago to recruit Islamic Mujahideen guerrillas to fight the Soviets in Afghanistan. He believes that “If the security situation does not quickly improve in Iraq, the country could soon become a paradise for jihad,”...You have all the ingredients for chaos: a lawless state in which anti-American feeling is growing, a country without armed forces, a country divided between Sunni and Shia”.
The most important and potentially most dangerous for Iraq as much as for the occupation forces is the possibility that this was the work of a Shia group that was opposed to Ayatollah Baqer Hakim and the policy of the Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) to cooperate with the Americans and to be part of the Iraqi governing council.
Moqtada al-Sadr, the fiery heir of Ayatollah Sadr, who was said to have been Iraq’s equivalent of Imam Khomeini and who was killed by Saddam Hussain in 1980, is using the undoubted support he enjoys among some of the poorer Shias to seek a change in the general policy of the Shia religious leaders to acquiesce in the American occupation. He has control of a whole township in Baghdad, formerly known as Saddam City and now renamed “Sadr City”, populated almost entirely by less affluent Shias. He recently extracted an apology from the Americans for the desecration of a banner bearing the Holy Prophet’s name but deemed it insufficient and demanded that there be no American presence in Sadr City.
He is suspected of having played a part in the assassination, shortly after Saddam’s fall, of Ayatollah Khoie — the heir of the late Ayatollah Uzma Khoie, who had returned to Iraq after years of exile in London and who was said to have developed close ties with the British leaders including Prime Minister Blair during his stay in London. The alleged motive was that since Khoie’s religious lineage was even more distinguished than that of Sadr his message of moderation would carry greater weight with the Shia masses.
Ayatollah Baqer Al-Hakim was undoubtedly the best interlocutor that the Americans could have found for cementing their relationship with the Shias in Iraq. The Shias hated Saddam and welcomed his removal but they were suspicious of American motives and these suspicions were only strengthened when security and economic conditions took a nosedive after the American occupation. If Shia restiveness was kept under partial control it was attributable in large part to the influence of Ayatollah Hakim and to the backing that he had from the Ayatollah Uzmas of the “Howza” including the senior-most of them all, Ayatollah Uzma Sistani.
Ayatollah Hakim, when he returned from exile in Iran, brought with him the “Badr” said to number more than 10,000 fighters. This strength, as much as the backing the Howza has given the SCIRI, and the danger of taking on the Americans may give pause to Sadr in his bid for leadership of the Shias on the platform of throwing the Americans out and getting the Shias the major share of power in Iraq. But this is by no means certain. The frustration among the people in Iraq generally and among the Shias in particular is extremely high. The known plans of the Americans are not such as to offer the hope of a quick solution to the problems with which the Iraqis are beset. Sadr may well become the vehicle for the expression of this frustration.
There is now, in my view, a clear divide among the Iraqi Shias. Whether this will erupt into open conflict is not clear but it is nonetheless a dangerous overlay to the existing ethnic divides that already exist in Iraq and which are being exacerbated by the economic difficulties. An already dangerous Iraq has become much more so.
The idea for a UN force under a US commander has now been floated. It has received an endorsement of sorts from the Russians. Whether there will be a UN Security Council decision that permits this to go forward is not yet known but what is known is that there will be increased pressure on Pakistan and Turkey to provide troops for Iraq and to accept whatever little cover a UN Security Council decision provides.
It is a decision that will have to be weighed carefully. On the one hand there is the enormous boost it will provide to our relations with the US and with the West generally. On the other there is the question not only of public opinion in Pakistan but also the question of the reception our forces will be accorded by the Iraqis. Most important of all is the question of how the sectarian divide in Iraq will impinge on the sensitivities of our own multi-sectarian army.
The writer is a former foreign secretary of Pakistan.


The state of our democracy
By Zubeida Mustafa
THE current tussle in Islamabad on the Legal Framework Order has left the people in a state of bewilderment. The common man perceives the happenings in the federal capital as a struggle for power between the elite groups with none of them having any concern for the welfare of the masses.
Be it the men in uniform, the ruling party or those in the opposition, all of them have managed to project an image of themselves that hardly endears them to the multitude. This depoliticization of the people is the price we have had to pay for the destruction of democracy over the years both by the military and the political leaders. We have reached a stage where even the intellectuals can’t agree on the definition of democracy. If one were asked to describe the attributes of a democratic state we may not even be able to come up with a consensus.
Going by how the issue is debated by the intelligentsia, the key requisites would appear to be a representative government installed through fair and free elections and freedom of speech, assembly, and association. All this supposedly facilitates self-government, which should be the ultimate aim of a democratic order if we are to pre-empt the exploitation of the masses by the rulers. John Strachey, the British Labour Party leader whose brilliant lectures on democracy were published in a pamphlet titled The Challenge of Democracy after his death, pointed out that there is no substitute for self-government. Government by somebody else always, in the end, turns into government in the interests of somebody else, he succinctly pointed out.
In that context, Pakistan has not made much progress, even though it has all the outward strappings of a constitutional government. What we basically lack is a democratic culture and a system of in-built accountability. This is essential if democracy is to function effectively. The need is to have a system which keeps the powers of the rulers in check and protects the interests of the people.
Hence it is the accountability process which emerges as the key element in the political system. This alone makes the rulers responsible for their action. But for the accountability not to degenerate into a witch hunt, it is essential that it is an ongoing and in-built process which should take place while a ruler is still in office.
This is not something impossible or unheard of. You just have to look around beyond your horizons to see how accountability works in other countries. It can bring a serving prime minister before a judge to testify in a judicial enquiry and defend the veracity of his statement. Had the British democracy not been underpinned with such a strong tradition of accountability, Lord Hutton, the judge deputed to look into the ministry of defence scientist Dr David Kelly’s suicide, could not have summoned Mr Tony Blair and grilled him for over two hours. The implications of the Hutton enquiry will be far-reaching. But before anything else it has established the credentials of Britain’s democracy.
Now have a look at the home front to see how accountability operates in Pakistan. A Greek oil tanker carrying 67,000 tonnes of crude oil is grounded off the Karachi coast. The KPT, the agency ultimately responsible for this accident, shows no concern whatsoever. After 18 days the Tasman Spirit breaks up and begins spilling its oily cargo in the Arabian Sea.
Environmentalists, health professionals and people with an iota common sense had been warning of the oil slick’s disastrous consequences but the government proceeded to underplay the whole incident. Why? Because by making out the accident as being nothing serious, it could absolve itself of the need to pin responsibility.
It took the WHO in conjunction with the health ministry to declare the oil spill a “massive catastrophe”. And still responsibility has not been pinned. Rubbing salt to the wounds of the Karachiites, the government has instituted an enquiry headed by those very same people whose responsibility it was to act in the first place. Will this be a fair enquiry? .
All this is happening when a political structure of sorts is in place in the country. The government is complacent and why should it not be when none of the political parties has pressed for accountability in the matter. Only two party leaders have spoken up. A People’s Party MP, who has asked the government to pay Rs 10 billion as compensation for the damage inflicted, presented her case in such a way that she appeared to be making political capital out of this environmental disaster. How she arrived at the sum of Rs 10 billion we will never know because the party did not carry out an exercise to determine the quantum of the losses. If it did, the public has not been informed about it.
The MMA which is also in the opposition, used the occasion to demand the resignation of the KPT chairman and the federal communications minister. Again the impression one got was that the MMA was out to obtain its pound of flesh. Since no party did its homework it was not in a position to convincingly bring pressure to bear on the government to force it to hold the people accountable. It seems all parties are uncomfortable with the accountability question. It could backfire when they are in office at some future date. They could then become the victim of their own initiative.
It is a pity that our political parties — those in office and those in the opposition — are not working to give democracy roots in the country. If the military has succeeded in perpetuating its hold on power it is because no effort has been made to institutionalize and consolidate strong democratic traditions even when this was possible. This calls for a lot of hard work especially if accountability is to have some credibility and is not to be treated as an instrument of victimization of the opponents.
It is still an exercise worth undertaking even in our kind of democracy. For when a parliamentary system is operated vigorously and with commitment, it can mobilize and involve the people. Thus we have assemblies in place but they are not taken seriously and have become theatres of a political tug of war rather than the august institutions where parliamentarians of calibre test their debating skills and monitor the government’s policies armed with basic information and an intelligent understanding of issues.
If Pakistan is to have democracy what we need are parties which should make human rights, social justice and the rule of law the central plank of their programme. Their goal should be to bring about a change by putting pressure on the government on these issues. Their MPs are, after all, paid for doing this job and it is indefensible behaviour on their part not to put in their appearance in the few sessions that are held and contribute to the debates.
One has just to recall the pre-1989 days when the Berlin Wall was still intact and socialist dictatorships ruled the roost in East European countries. The pro-democracy movements led by the Solidarity in Poland, Charter 77 in Czechoslovakia and the Democratic Opposition in Hungary mobilized the public and ultimately changed the system. True, many other factors also contributed to the fall of autocracy in East Europe but the catalyst role played by these groups cannot be underestimated.
In his pamphlet The Challenge of Democracy, John Strachey wrote that a certain level of civilization was essential for the successful working of democratic institutions. He identified this as “a highly literate and a highly intelligent middle class which participates in public life effectively and actively”.
The hallmark of this middle class is not its spending power but its education and political involvement. How can such a middle class be created without well organized and committed political parties? Until our parties work in that direction the climate and culture for democracy cannot be created.

