June 30, 2003	Monday	Rabi-us-Sani 29,1424

While the government is insisting that its figure of 19.3 million tonnes of wheat for the recent crop is authentic and sufficient to meet domestic consumers’ needs, it would do well to ponder over a statistical comparison of yields of the Indian states of Punjab and Haryana and Pakistan’s main wheat-producing region, the province of Punjab, compiled by an Indian economist.

Dr. Raj Gupta, Coordinator, Rice Wheat Consortium for Indo Gangetic Plane project under the Mexico based SYMMIT, a UN organization for boosting agriculture, has worked out wheat output figures of these three regions. The data underlines the low produce state of agriculture in the biggest chunk of Pakistan’s food basket.

The two Indian states produced 24.5 million tonnes of wheat on 5.9 million hectares in 2000-01 while Punjab’s statistics for this period comprised 15.4 m tones on 6.2 million hectares. The difference is over 50 per cent.

SYMMIT spearheaded the Green Revolution of the 60’s under Dr Norman Bourlog, the only expert from the agriculture sector to receive a Nobel Prize. That campaign had made Pakistan self sufficient in wheat for a while, a feat achieved only once since then in the year 1999-2000. The organization is currently campaigning to save dwindling water resources and enhance yields across the world with conservation-oriented technologies.

Dr. Gupta has been striving for raising produce in the consortium countries mainly Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. His work is aimed at reducing cost of inputs, minimizing the farmer’s labour and enhancing their income by making the most efficient use of available resources.

According to statistics covering wheat yields for the period 1990-91 to 2000-01 worked out by Dr. Gupta, Haryana has been consistently obtaining maximum produce while Indian Punjab is a close second. Punjab in Pakistan is a dismal and distant third.

During this period, Punjab (Ind) increased its cultivation area from 3.3 million hectares to only 3.4 million, Haryana extended wheat cultivation from 1.8 million to 2.35 million hectares while Punjab (Pakistan) added 0.5 million land to its 5.7 million in 90-91 to place 6.2 million hectares under the wheat crop by 2000-01.

Output figures showed increase in all wheat producing areas but Haryana upped its yield per hectare from 3.7 metric (m)tonnes to 4.6 m tonnes, Punjab (Ind) took it from 3.5 m tonnes per hectare to 4.11 m tonnes for the same land while in Pakistan, Punjab’s increase was 2.46 m tonnes per hectare from 1.84 m tonnes per hectare.

The latest figures pertain to the year 2000-01 when Punjab (Ind) produced 15.5 million tonnes from 3.4 million hectare, Haryana’s yield was 9.65 million tonnes from 2.35 million hectares and Punjab (Pakistan) obtained 15.4 million tonnes from 6.2 million hectares. It adds up to Haryana and Punjab (Ind) producing 25.15 m tonnes from an area of 5.75 million hectares while Pakistan managed just 15.4 million tonnes from 6.2 million hectares in Punjab.

Considering that the farmer’s stock and quality of land are by and large the same in the three regions, it is a sad commentary on the progress made in the agriculture sector in Pakistan. Conditions in other provinces of Pakistan are the same as in Punjab and output as disappointing in Sindh, NWFP and Baluchistan.

Dr Gupta is of the view that Pakistan should reduce acreage by about 3 million hectares and work for increasing yield by harnessing the latest technologies that have been instrumental in high yields in India’s two wheat states located contagiously with Pakistan. The advice needs to be taken seriously and implemented with urgency.

High yields in India are due to a number of factors ranging from the use of conservation technologies like zero tillage, laser levelling and bed and furrow method that make for the maximum results from inputs like fertilizer and insecticides to general mechanization of the agriculture sector and surety for farmers that their produce would not be hampered by inequity and exploitation of the market.

However, it is not all technology that has imparted an extra golden hue to wheat crops in the grain baskets of India but quality and precise management also as November 15 is the final cut off date for wheat sowing in the region while farmers continue cultivating wheat till mid January in Punjab in Pakistan. Late sowing is lethal for yield from the crop and scuttles its size no end.

Further, free use of electricity for running tube wells is another strength of the Indian farmers. This facility was been recently extended to local growers but to the extent of 33 percent and one does not know when the government would reverse the policy, as decisions in Pakistan are known to change overnight without any rationale.

However, India’s wheat states have been ahead of Pakistan in produce for over a decade while conservation technologies are of a relatively recent origin. Pakistan’s agriculture sector experts explain it as the result of early mechanization of the sector in India. In Pakistan, mechanization has come slowly and is still limited in many ways.

But it is generally agreed that a substantial yield increase is possible by using conservation technologies, more effective management of inputs, precision placement of seed to ensure maximum germination and plant population and by chiselling the farmer’s skills in the present day technological mould. Experts point out that despite a low crop this year, fields cultivated with conservation technologies produced higher yields. Many farms deploying zero tillage machinery and technique obtained 10 to 15 maunds per acre more than other fields.

However, one does not see much evidence of the government supporting conservation methods. While resourceful agriculturists have converted to conservation methods and machinery, small farmers find the investment beyond their means and are forced to stick to methods that are increasingly wearing superannuated look.

Private sector entrepreneurs have managed to produce zero tillage drills at a cost that is fairly reasonable at Rs30,000 a drill. Considering that imported ZT drill was worth over Rs. 200,000, it is quite an achievement. But the government has to ensure the availability of machinery for small farmers if a serious effort is to be made to reduce cultivation area and increase yields.

Union councils are best suited for promoting agriculture through the latest means. This should actually be the main role of local governments in the agriculture sector but provincial governments must provide the lead and the resources. There is time between now and the next crop to undertake this task in earnestness.

Meanwhile, one hopes that the self-deception of the government about the wheat produce is just a stance for the public and the authorities wake up to the reality of a serious shortfall in wheat. In case the authorities prove correct, a highly unlikely possibility, every one would be more than happy.