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| April 25, 2003 | Friday | Safar 22, 1424 |
Time is running out on Baglihar issue
ISLAMABAD, April 24: While Islamabad is still working out modalities of appointing neutral experts for arbitration in the controversial Baglihar hydro power project, New Delhi is facilitating civil works into advanced stages of completion.
Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Mufti Muhammad Sayed was recently quoted by the Press Trust of India as saying that the ambitious Rs46 billion Baglihar project would begin generation by 2004, when its first unit would be completed. The second phase would be completed by December 2005.
According to informed government sources, the Foreign Office a couple of weeks ago had sent a summary
for the appointment of two neutral experts to Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Jamali, but his approval is still awaited.
About two months ago, the civil and hydro mechanical contractor for the Baglihar project, JP Industries, told the Indian Press that 90 per cent of the civil work for the power house, including a diversion tunnel, was completed.
The 450-megawatt Baglihar plant in the occupied Kashmir was launched in June 1999.
After the breakdown of the Baglihar talks between India and Pakistan at the last special meeting of the Permanent Indus Water Commission in February, Islamabad decided to seek intervention of some neutral experts for arbitration in the dispute.
The talks failed after Indian officials refused to make any changes proposed in the project design by Pakistan’s experts. Pakistan had earlier requested India to stop construction on the project until the dispute on the design is resolved, but the request was turned down.
Pakistan had conveyed to the Indian commissioner for Indus water in November last that Pakistan would be forced to opt other means available in the treaty if the matter was not resolved by negotiations.
The bilateral water-sharing Indus Water Treaty gives both countries the third party option in case of a deadlock over any issue. Article IX of the treaty provides for settling disputes through neutral observers or arbitration if they cannot be resolved between the two commissioners.
Pakistan says the Baglihar project, which provides for submerged gated spillways, is in breach of the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty. These spillways would allow India to increase the storage capacity far beyond what is allowed to India under the pact. Pakistan’s main concern is that the structure would provide India the capability to manipulate flow of water to Pakistan’s disadvantage. Experts warn that acute water shortages could be one of the serious adverse consequences for Pakistan.
India has been dragging its feet over the Baglihar issue since May 1999, when Pakistan first objected to its design. It has postponed almost half a dozen times inspection tours of the project site that Pakistan has requested under the treaty. The delaying tactics by India is seen as a time-taking strategy.
Meanwhile, there are talks in Indian circles about scrapping the treaty that has held good for 42 years and survived two wars.
Strong voices in the Indian Press have been advocating re-negotiation of the treaty. The argument put forth is that the treaty tilts heavily in favour of Pakistan and “puts a whole lot of obligations on India without adequate compensation”.
An editorial titled “Sharing Indus Water” in the daily Business Standard said: “India should start building a case for thrashing out a fresh Indus treaty, taking the changed circumstances and changed water harnessing and exploitation technologies into account.”
However, legal experts familiar with the treaty say it would be difficult for India to unilaterally withdraw from an international treaty, for which the World Bank stands as the guarantor.
Under the “Final Provisions” stated in Article XII of the treaty, the only option available is to modify or terminate the agreement by way of a subsequent treaty and its ratification by the two countries.
On the other hand, technical experts and Pakistani officials maintain that attempts at renegotiating the treaty amid the existing Indian belligerence were bound to fail.
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