April 10, 2003	Thursday	Safar 7, 1424

TEHRAN: Iran’s joy at the likely fall of its hated neighbour Saddam Hussein is tempered by the realization that its other arch-foe, the United States, is likely to intensify pressure for change in the Islamic Republic.

Washington, buoyed by military successes in quick succession against the Taliban in Afghanistan and Saddam in Iraq, will turn the screws — economic and diplomatic — on other states it sees as a threat to world security, analysts and diplomats said.

The fall of Saddam, who fired chemical weapons at Iran in the 1980-1988 Iran-Iraq war, will be a day “of great joy for all Iranians”, Vice-President Mohammad Ali Abtahi said.

But the speed and relative ease with which US troops have taken control of Baghdad has many in Iran’s clerical establishment looking nervously over their shoulders.

“The fact that Saddam has nearly been toppled in just 21 days is something that should concern all countries in this region,” a senior adviser to Iran’s government said.

“After this America has become a much more powerful nation,” he said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Iran is on Washington’s “axis of evil” list and US officials have issued stern warnings to the Islamic Republic that it must halt its alleged nuclear weapons programme and backing for groups Washington deems “terrorist” organizations.

Iran denies seeking nuclear weapons and says it only offers moral support to militant groups such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

Few in Tehran expect President George W. Bush to stage a military assault on Iran, which is one of the most democratic states in the Middle East. US and British officials have denied Iran will face military action.

FOCUS ON IRAN: But Iran will be feeling more heat from Washington before long, analysts said.

“The US has a lot on its plate right now but within six months to a year Washington’s attention will be firmly focused on Iran,” said a local political analyst.

“I expect the pressure to build and the main focus will probably be on the nuclear issue,” he said.

Some analysts do not rule out a tactical military strike against one of Iran’s recently declared nuclear facilities, such as a uranium enrichment plant in Natanz which Iran says will provide fuel for an ambitious atomic energy programme.

But pressure, driven by powerful Israeli-supporting lobbies who see Iran as the biggest security threat in the Middle East, is likely to focus on trying to force it to sign up to more intrusive inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Economic avenues are also likely to be explored and the Pentagon has been considering blacklisting oil firms that invest in Iran from taking part in the reconstruction of Iraq’s oil facilities, according to a recent Financial Times report.

“You may also see an effort to nurture and fortify some kind of opposition given the apparent frustration in Washington with President Khatami’s inability to take things forward,” said the analyst.

“The problem is that, right now, there isn’t really a viable opposition movement,” he added.

SOFTWARE VS HARDWARE WAR: Iranian officials refer to such US tactics as a “software”war, as opposed to the “hardware” war of military confrontation.

There are some tentative signs that the softer approach, backed by the big stick of military threat, has borne fruit.

Heeding US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld’s warnings not to interfere in Iraq, Iran has barred many Iraqi Shia militia from crossing to join the battle against Saddam.—Reuters