March 26, 2003	Wednesday	Muharram 22, 1424

DOHA, March 25: Sandstorms, snipers and cynicism hampered the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq on the sixth day of war on Tuesday, and military analysts said the campaign could go on for two weeks to a month longer.

Just when the entire country might be subdued and its cities secured was an open question.

The strategy of dashing north to Baghdad without securing population centres on the way depended on southern Iraqis welcoming the American and British forces, analysts said.

But memories of betrayal by Washington after the 1991 Gulf War make them deeply wary and still fearful.

Iraqi forces and Fedayeen militia are now using the unsecured cities and desert space to inflict stinging attacks on the exposed flanks of the U.S.-led advance.

“Iraqis remember what happened last time — they revolted in Basra, the Americans did not back them up and then they faced massive reprisals from Saddam later,” said Barthelemy Courmont of France’s Institute for International and Strategic Relations.

The loss of a Turkish springboard was also a major drawback.

“It has put a huge question over when they will be able to lay siege to Baghdad. For that, you need to encircle a town and they won’t be able to do that for at least four to five days,” Courmont said. Troops would have to go the long way round from the south to cover exit routes north of Baghdad.

Part of the problem was that the U.S. and British strategy was based on hopes of a mass uprising against President Saddam Hussein, but this was not happening.

NO LIBERATION JOY: “I think the planners in the Pentagon were expecting less resistance. Military men such as General (Tommy) Franks may have been less surprised,” said Frank Umbach, security and defence analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

“They aren’t being greeted in the south as some had suggested, but you have to bear in mind the deep disappointment the Shias felt after being let down in 1991. Also, while they may be against Saddam Hussein, there’s no reason to assume they are in favour of an American-led government in Baghdad.”

Umbach said Turkey’s refusal to allow U.S. forces to invade from there had slowed the march on Baghdad.

“The original strategy too was to have 60,000 troops coming into the north via Turkey. That’s not happened and ... it has caused an inevitable delay and a weakening because everything has had to come through the south,” he said.

“I think we’re looking at a conflict which will last at least another couple of weeks.”

Saddam had clearly altered his disastrous sitting-duck military posture of the 1991 Gulf War, in which his forces were overrun in four days following 38 days of aerial pounding.

“The Iraqis have realised it’s all about regime change, so this time they are waiting to fight in the cities,” said Jacques Beltran of the French Institute for International Relations.

“It is clear that as far as Baghdad is concerned, Saddam and his inner circle will fight to the death — so yes, that will have an impact on the timeframe.”—Reuters