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BERLIN, Jan 2: Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder appears to be moving away from his strident rejection of war with Iraq as Germany’s assumption of a UN Security Council seat casts an awkward spotlight on his election campaign promises.
Schroeder’s criticism of any US-led war against Iraq was credited with helping him win a second term in Germany’s September general election, although his position prompted US officials to call ties “poisoned”.
On Wednesday, Germany began a two-year term on the 15-seat Security Council along with four other newly elected members. It takes over the rotating monthly chair in February just as Iraq tensions are expected to peak.
Despite US lobbying against the move, Germany has also assumed the two-year chair of the UN committee that monitors enforcement of sanctions imposed on Iraq after its 1990 invasion of neighbouring Kuwait.
Schroeder is not expected to reverse his campaign pledge to keep German troops out of a war with Iraq.
But, keen to patch up relations with Washington and forge a more united European position on Iraq, Germany will not vote against any Security Council resolution endorsing an assault, analysts say.
“If the international community is left with no other option than military intervention, Germany cannot block it. It would show how isolated Germany is,” said Frank Umbach, a security analyst at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP).
“Other European nations share Germany’s concerns about military intervention, but in the end they will support the United States politically and even militarily. That could be a way of solving domestic problems, by saying if the rest of Europe is in favour, Germany can’t be against,” he said.
A Nov 8 Security Council resolution gave Iraq a final chance to rid itself of weapons of mass destruction or face “serious consequences”.
Arms inspectors searching for evidence Iraq has banned weapons are to report their findings to the council by Jan 27. Baghdad denies it has any such weapons.
DOMESTIC DYNAMITE: In recent days, Schroeder and his foreign minister, Joschka Fischer, have begun preparing the ground for a shift in position, with Fischer refusing to rule out supporting any new Security Council resolution mandating military action.
Schroeder said in his New Year’s address on Tuesday: “We Germans know from our own experience that sometimes only violence can stop dictators... But we also know what bombs, destruction and losses at home mean for people.”
Opposition conservatives are already accusing Schroeder of going back on his anti-war election pledges and any easing of Germany’s stance on Iraq in the Security Council could strain the ruling coalition of Social Democrats and Greens.
The Handelsblatt business daily said any change in stance would be “pure dynamite” for the so-called “Red-Green” coalition, which saw its majority slashed in the September election and has many members who are deeply opposed to war.
Gerhard Boekel, leader of the Social Democrats in the state of Hesse where regional elections are due on Feb 2, hinted at the problems ahead for Schroeder if he weakens his position.
“If the government clearly says that it will not send any German soldiers to Iraq due to fundamental considerations then it should also not raise its hand in any international forum for the military deployment of other countries,” he said.
“The question must be allowed whether US President George W. Bush would pursue the same course if there were no big oil reserves in Iraq.”
The DGAP’s Umbach predicted Germany would abstain from any new Security Council vote, but said Schroeder had severely hurt Germany’s quest for a bigger international role and a permanent seat on the Security Council.
“The best Germany can do is damage limitation. What one hears in Washington is that relations won’t improve much for the next two years,” he said.—Reuters
