November 29, 2002	Friday	Ramazan 23, 1423

KARACHI, Nov 28: A sharp price rise up to 20 per cent in last three years on transport, ghee, cooking oil, tea, milk powder, spices and a few other essential items has literally pauperised an average middle income group family.

Prices of pulses and flour varieties during the last three years fluctuated within a manageable band of prices during late 1999 to November this year.

Consumers are now paying 20 per cent more for a a five litre tin of Dalda ghee. It now costs Rs395 as compared to Rs330 three years from now. Similarly, Habib Banaspati (five litre ghee) is now priced at Rs385 as compared to Rs317, while Tullo five litre ghee is tagged at Rs365 as compared to Rs325. Same kind of increase was recorded in the price of cooking oil.

In milk powder, the price of Millac 2,500 gram pack now costs Rs550 as compared to Rs515 while Nido 1000gram pack is being retailed at Rs199 as against Rs183. Everyday 1000gram carries price tag of Rs194 compared with Rs178.

Tea prices have also gone up in the last three years. Tapal 200 gram pack, which was available at Rs44 three years back, is now priced at Rs51, while Yellow Label 200 gram pack is available at Rs60 as compared to Rs50. Supreme tea pack of 250 gram now costs Rs62 as against Rs58.

In squashes, Rooh Afza, Naurus and Jam-e-Shireen are being retailed at Rs75 each as compared to Rs70, 65 and 68 respectively three years back. Mitchells squash bottle is available at Rs55, up by Rs5 in three years. Ovaltine (big pack) is sold at Rs185 as against Rs170. Ahmed’s tomato ketchup is priced at Rs32 as compared to Rs30.

In spices, red chilly (small sabut) is tagged at Rs60 per kg from Rs42 per kg while grinned is sold at Rs65 as compared to Rs60. Coriander (sabut and grinned) are sold at Rs48 and Rs53 per kg as compared to Rs30 and Rs36 per kg. Clove is now peaked to Rs375 per kg from Rs280 per kg. Cardamom small (No. 1 and 2 qualities) are selling at Rs1,000 and Rs780 per kg as compared to Rs840 and Rs720 per kg respectively three years back.

Atta fine 10 kg bag sells at Rs115 per bag as against Rs110 per bag, while price of 10 kg bag of atta No. 2.5 has been enhanced to Rs100 from Rs95, while a drop in prices have been seen in maida and sooji by Re1 per kg. Atta fine produced by mill sells at Rs11 per kg as against Rs12 per kg three years back.

In pulses, masoor prices dropped to Rs31 per kg from Rs35 per kg while mung is being retailed at Rs30 per kg from Rs32 per kg. Mung price has been increased to Rs27 per kg from Rs24 per kg. Black gram prices have surged to Rs28-30 per kg from Rs22-24 per kg while Kabuli prices have declined to Rs27-32 per kg from Rs36-40 per kg. Arhar prices have caved in to Rs28-31 per kg from Rs44-48 per kg.

Irri old now costs Rs12.50 per kg from Rs12 per kg while no change has been seen in price of basmati’s wind three qualities at Rs24-28 per kg. Price of Basmati Sella qualities hover between Rs26-28 per kg as compared to Rs28-32 per kg three years back.

Many factors like global prices, exchange rate parity, arrival of commodity from producing areas, cost of production, utility charges and petroleum prices play major role in determining the inflationary trend.

As far as rupee-dollar parity is concerned — dollar has gained its strength against the rupee in interbank market, thus making imports expensive. When military took over, a dollar was available at Rs51.87 in interbank as compared to current value of Rs58.50 to a greenback. Dollar touched peak exchange value of over Rs67 immediately after 9/11. It has now come down to Rs59 thanks to increase in volume of dollars inflow because of the steps taken by the US administration to curb hawala and hundi.

The ex-depot price of petrol has shown a rise of 23.48 per cent to Rs32.18 per litre from Rs26.06 a litre, while diesel price has gone up by 100 per cent to Rs21.38 per litre from Rs10.66 per litre. Furnace oil price has shot up by 62 per cent to Rs11,381 per ton from Rs7,000 per ton. Kerosene is selling at Rs18.95 per litre from Rs10.50 per litre, up by 80 per cent.

Oil imports are directly related to world oil prices. But the government has been frequently increasing the petroleum development levy (PDL) in the last three years to achieve its revenue targets.

Urea bag now costs Rs425 per 50 kg as compared to Rs338.70 three years back due to increase in gas prices.

Taking an example of gas price surge, it is seen that gas rates in four categories (0-100, 101-200, industrial and commercial) have increased by 11.4 to 41.6 per cent in the last three years.

In electricity, rates have been skyrocketed by five per cent to 27 per cent in just three categories of consumers.

Patron-in-Chief, North Karachi Association of Trade and Industry (NKATI), Capt Moiz A. Khan, in a letter to President Pervaiz Musharraf on November 14, said that the KESC had again increased the fixed charges by 50 per cent on consumers’ power bills, which is bound to hurt the industry. He said electricity is the most expensive in Pakistan as compared to the entire world. The current KESC tariff stands 400 per cent more as compared to the USA.

Despite the inflationary trend in the last three years, the military regime tenure has been a mixed bag of positives and negatives, but on the macro-economic front, positives outweigh the negatives by a big margin.

According to Research Head of Invest Cap and Securities, Mohammad Sohail, privatization process has picked up in the last three years. The smooth privatization of Pak Saudi Fertiliser, oil and gas fields and somewhat controversial yet high price yielding process of UBL have restored confidence.

An increase of $4.9 billion in forex reserves in one year, surpassing the Rs400 billion tax collection mark in 2001-2003 and continually improving trade numbers are all initial signs that Pakistan is slowly moving towards becoming a self-sufficient nation, he said.

The latest step towards ‘undisclosed trading’ is just a part of several capital market reforms that continued to be implemented. The government gave more powers to the SECP.

Sohail said that the State Bank has been granted full autonomy, oil and sector is being liberalized, CBR is being restructured, a fiscal responsibility law has been drafted and several other such steps in the right direction (coupled with Musharraf’s presence for another five years) are likely to serve as a platform for the good economic results.