November 15, 2002	Friday	Ramazan 9, 1423

KARACHI, Nov 14: Pakistan’s industrial consumption of petroleum, oil and lubricants (POL) has increased by 1.62 per cent during July-September 2002-03 to 4 million tons as compared to 3.92 million tons in the same period of 2001-02.

Out of total six main POL products, consumption of petrol has shown an increase of 2.5 per cent to 273,850 tons from 267,200 tons due to rising trend in car and bikes sales in July-Sept period, says figures compiled by the Oil Companies Advisory Committee (OCAC).

Car sales in July-Sept period rose by 23 per cent to 12,880 cars as compared to 10,485 units in the same period of 2001- 02. Sales of motorcycles (Honda, Yamaha and Suzuki) surged to 35,377 units as compared to 27,614 units.

Auto sector has already asserted that the car market is expected to grow approximately by 10 per cent in the current fiscal year.

The main reason of rising consumption of petrol is increase in auto sales, otherwise petroleum prices have been going up and a large number of cars are being converted into CNG.

Consumption of high speed diesel (HSD) touched to 1.719 million tons in the first quarter of 2002-03 as compared to 1.566 million tons, up by 9.82 per cent.

Oil analysts attributed the increase to rising sales of commercial vehicles. A total of 15,689 light commercial vehicles (Potohar, Bolan, Hilux 4x4 and 4x2, Ravi, Shehzore and Ceres) were sold in July-Sept 2002 as compared to 12,245 units. Combined sales of bus and truck (Hinopak, Nissan and Mazda) rose by 66 per cent to 727 units from 438 units. Rise in diesel consumption is also considered as a barometer to gauge the performance of agriculture sector which had definitely showed a boom. Similarly, consumption of light diesel oil (LDO), which is used in agricultural machineries, has also jumped to 72,122 tons from 51,670 tons in July-Sept 2001.

Jet fuel consumption surged to 170,721 tons from 135,166 tons, up by 26 per cent since all international flights had resumed their flights after 9/11 incidents followed by negotiations of new supply contracts with airlines by some oil marketing companies. International airlines had suspended their operations in Pakistan soon after Sept 11 catastrophe last year.

Consumption of kerosene oil rose to 86,944 tons from 78,683 tons.

The consumption of fuel oil declined by four per cent to 1.623 million tons from 1.782 million tons. Head of Research, InvestCap and Securities, Mohammad Sohail, linked the decline in fuel oil sales to improved water supply situation and higher reliance on hydel power generation instead on thermal coupled with switch-over of a number of power plants to natural gas from furnace oil. He said even the production of power from Hubco plant, which is the highest consumer of furnace oil, also remained thin during July-Sept 2002.

“Rise in POL consumption is a true reflection of improvement in economic indicators,” he said, adding that it is to be seen whether this positive economic development could sustain in political government tenure.

Another analyst said that it was difficult to forecast the consumption of POL products in future as a lot depended on the post-government scenario coupled with general economic conditions in coming months. Transport business will improve in case economic activity picks up, he added.