November 1, 2002	Friday	Sha’aban 25,1423

SINGAPORE: Oct 31: America’s bid to pursue a regime change in Iraq, with or without the United Nations, could lead to instability in the region and a severe economic slowdown, speakers at a seminar in Singapore said on Wednesday.

Leading the discussions, political expert Chin Kin Wah said the most desirable scenario would be for the United States to get a moderated Security Council resolution passed, requiring UN weapons inspectors to report back to the Council if Iraq refuses to cooperate.

This scenario would pave the way for subsequent military intervention, he said at the seminar titled “War Against Iraq: Impact On The Region”, organised by the Singapore Institute of International Affairs.

But the US was not above unilateral action when push comes to shove, he pointed out. “Such action could trigger a new wave of anti-American, anti-western sentiments in the Muslim world,” he said.

The consequences would be a deepening of the Arab sense of humiliation. “This will find an echo among radical and militant constituencies in South-East Asia.”

SIIA council member Manu Bhaskaran said the economic consequences would depend

on the duration of the war but its effect was already being felt.

A short and successful war could lead to oil prices falling and global activity picking up. But a long war could lead to a severe slowdown, he warned.

The other speakers, SIIA council secretary Eric Teo and Professor Hank Lim, director of research of SIIA, added that a war would lead to uncertainty in the Middle East.

The seminar was chaired by MP Irene Ng. — The Straits Times / Asia News Network.