October 5, 2002	Saturday	Rajab 27, 1423

ISLAMABAD, Oct 4: With gas falling short of around 3,600 thousand cubic feet per day, the government has planned to increase its production by over 100 per cent within eight years.

“The local gas production has been targeted to increase from current 2336 mmcfd (thousand cubic feet per day) to 5000 mmcfd by the year 2010-11,” a senior government official told Dawn. Total gas reserves of the country are estimated at 21 trillion cubic feet (tcf).

This is part of a long-term gas production and development strategy prepared by the ministry of petroleum and natural resources that also entails decreased gas supplies to domestic consumers.

The strategy aims at increasing the industrial consumption by enhancing the drilling activities, utilization of natural gas as a replacement fuel for imported furnace oil, expansion of transmission and distribution infrastructure and expansion in use of compressed natural gas in the transport sector.

Pakistan is estimating to face a natural gas shortfall of 3,600 to 6,000 million meter cubic feet per day (mmcfd) by the 2020 if pipeline projects for its import are not materialised.

Pakistan’s oil import bill stood at $3 billion during 2000-01 but declined by around 25 per cent during last year due to reduced consumption because of sluggish industrial activity and low international prices. These prices are again on the rise with estimates that import bill could once again touch $3 billion mark.

If none of the import projects materialise in the next five years, dependence on oil imports would go up proportionately and oil import bill is estimated to surpass $15 billion by 2020.

These estimates suggest that country would have a total supplies of 3,034 mmcfd of gas in 2004 against a gross demand of 3,271 mmcfd leaving a shortfall of 237 mmcfd. By 2006, the shortfall would increase to 476 mmcfd as total supply is projected to be at 3,264 mmcfd against a gross demand of 3,690 mmcfd.

Based on development of already discovered gas fields and projected future discoveries, the total supply of gas is estimated to increase very slowly, around 100 mmcfd per year, till 2008. The gas supplies would start declining at an average 175 mmcfd from fiscal year 2008 to 2020.

The supplies will reduce from 3,381 mmcfd in 2009 to 1,567 mmcfd in 2020. Gross demand would keep on increasing at an average 200 mmcfd of gas and jump to 7,515 in 2020 from 3,015 mmcfd in 2004.

Even in the moderate GDP growth rate, gross demand would go upto 5,175 mmcfd by the year 2020 against conservative estimated demand of 2,997 mmcfd in 2004. The gross demand is based on transmission, distribution and compression losses at 8 per cent and decreased to 6 per cent by 2005. The losses are projected to remain constant at 6 per cent till 2020.

The deficit is expected to increase from 237 mmcfd in 2004 to 591 mmcfd in 2007 and 775 mmcfd in 2008. The deficit will further increase to 1,053 mmcfd in 2009 and almost double to 2,456 mmcfd in fiscal year 2013.

The gas deficit would increase to 3,219 mmcfd in 2015, 4,785 mmcfd in 2018 and 5,947 mmcfd in 2020.

Under the moderate growth rate scenario, a surplus of 37 mmcfd to 43 mmcfd is expected to prevail during the period 2004- 06. However, deficit would start from fiscal year 2007 with a nominal 23 mmcfd and increase to 202 mmcfd in fiscal 2009.

The deficit would further increase from 432 mmcfd in fiscal 2010 to 1,370 mmcfd in fiscal 2013. The shortfall would touch 1,954 mmcfd in 2015, 2,967 mmcfd in 2018 and touch 3,610 mmcfd in 2020.