July 11, 2002	Thursday	Rabi-us-Sani 29, 1423

BRUSSELS: Turkey’s political turmoil could put new strains on its sensitive relationship with the European Union, making a crisis over Cyprus’s bid to join the EU more likely, diplomats and political analysts say.

Bulent Ecevit’s three-party government was teetering on the brink of collapse on Wednesday after several ministers resigned and his party mutinied amid growing concern over the premier’s health and the fate of desperately needed economic reforms.

Turkey has been a formal candidate for EU membership since December 1999 but has yet to open accession negotiations because of continued concerns in Brussels over human rights abuses.

The European Commission, the executive body overseeing the enlargement of the Union to the east and south, is worried about the government crisis in Ankara, but has no wish to be seen to be meddling in Turkey’s internal affairs.

“We are following the situation very closely. This is obviously a matter for Turkey but we are sure that Turkish institutions will work to ensure political stability and to maintain the momentum of reforms,” said Commission spokesman Jean-Christophe Filori.

Privately, EU diplomats say the crisis, which coincides with the crucial, final stage of enlargement talks with 10 candidates including the divided island of Cyprus, has the potential to damage EU-Turkey relations, possibly quite badly.

CYPRUS FACTOR: The EU wants Ankara to pressure the Turkish Cypriot statelet in northern Cyprus into cutting a deal with the Greek Cypriots who run the internationally recognized government that would let Cyprus enter the EU, probably in 2004, as a reunited island.

An agreement would also facilitate Turkey’s own bid to open accession talks, although it is also required to scrap the death penalty, ensure civilian control of the armed forces, guarantee freedom of speech and grant cultural rights to minority Kurds.

Prolonged political turmoil in Ankara would reduce the chances of a Cyprus settlement before a summit in Copenhagen in December when the EU expects to conclude enlargement talks with the Greek Cypriot government, among numerous other candidates.

“It also means Turkey is unlikely to pass the reforms it needs to if it wants the EU in Copenhagen to announce a date for launching its own accession negotiations,” said one diplomat.

In the past, Ecevit has suggested Turkey might formally annex northern Cyprus if the EU effectively admitted only the Greek Cypriot part. That would sink Turkey’s own EU ambitions.

The EU would prefer a peace settlement but has said it would admit a divided island if there is no deal. Greece has threatened to block the whole historic EU enlargement project into eastern Europe if Cyprus is not included in the first wave.

Scouring the storm clouds for the glint of a silver lining, some diplomats say an early Turkish election — Ecevit does not in theory have to call a vote until 2004 — might produce a new political dynamic in Ankara and, hopefully, more clarity.

Ecevit’s coalition includes a right-wing nationalist party hostile to the EU and to the reforms needed to join it.

“Polls suggest the Islamists could come to power and they have been making some quite pro-EU noises. After all, the EU means democracy and openness and protects them from the army,” said one diplomat. The powerful Turkish military establishment sees itself as the guardian of Turkey’s secular constitution and forced out the last Islamist-led government, five years ago.

Another diplomat said an early Turkish election might not be good for a Cyprus settlement but neither was today’s confusion. Some are hoping pro-Europe Economy Minister Kemal Dervis and Foreign Minister Ismail Cem could gain sway in a new government.

STRATEGY NEEDED: Political analysts say the EU can do little to shape events in Turkey but urgently needs to develop a more coherent strategy towards its big Muslim neighbour.

“Turkey is the litmus test for whether the EU can build a strong and viable common foreign policy,” said Heather Grabbe of the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank.

She said the EU needed to speak to Turkey with a single and consistent voice. It should not bend the rules to let Turkey in but should show it is serious about Ankara’s candidacy.

Turkish politicians have often complained that the EU does not really want to admit their large, overwhelmingly Muslim country of 65 million which borders Iran, Iraq and Syria.

Reinforcing their suspicions, German conservative Edmund Stoiber has said publicly he does not believe Turkey should be admitted. Stoiber could become chancellor of the EU’s biggest country — which is home to more than two million Turks — after a September 22 general election.

Diplomats say that some inside the EU may secretly hope that the Turkish crisis leads to some kind of bust-up that would put paid to Ankara’s 40-year dream of joining the Union.

But Grabbe said: “Anybody with a strategic view of Europe’s prospects cannot afford to write off Turkey.”

Somewhat ironically, one country that would certainly not welcome Turkey’s exclusion from Europe is historic rival Greece.

“The crisis in Turkey creates fears in Greece. Isolation from the EU would increase its aggressiveness and Greece would be the first to feel the heat,” said one diplomat.

Greece, which takes over the bloc’s presidency from Denmark in January, wants the EU in Copenhagen to offer Turkey, if not a start date, then at least a clearer road-map to accession talks.

“Such a strategy could be blown off course by this crisis,” said the European diplomat.—Reuters