DUBAI: US President George W Bush’s identification of Iran, Iraq and North Korea as the “axis of evil” continues to unsettle parts of the Middle East. The first likely target in Washington’s expanded “war against terrorism” is Iraq - but the costs of going to war against Iraq are huge.

Unless Iraqi President Saddam Hussein is linked to Sept 11 or subsequent terrorism, the US would have to act alone. If it does, it will not be easy. Iraq is not Afghanistan — the opposition is weaker and the regime stronger.

Critics — even those who favour toppling Iraqi President Saddam Hussein — are questioning the rationale for attacking Iraq without an established link between Baghdad and the Sept 11 events.

Critics see Bush’s latest diatribe as an election ploy. With mid-term congressional polls in November, the president of the Arab American Institute in Washington, James Zogby, says: “Conscious that his domestic popularity ratings are at an all-time high, the strategy the White House has developed is to continue to play to Bush’s strong suit.”

But commentators say there are key differences between the war in Afghanistan and the one being talked about against Iraq. First, they suggest that defeating the well-trained Iraqi army would not be as easy as unseating the unprofessional Taliban forces.

Second, while the ex-king Zahir Shah and the opposition Northern Alliance were readymade allies to replace Taliban, there is hardly a single strong and credible force that could replace Saddam Hussein. Third, the crucial factor of the role of the neighbouring countries is uncertain.

During the attacks on Afghanistan, Central Asian countries, Iran and Pakistan backed the United States and its coalition, but the same cannot be expected if Iraq is attacked.

Meantime, just as the US is citing every excuse for a possible campaign against Iraq, Baghdad is beginning to employ every strategy to head off such a possibility.

While the Taliban refused to cooperate with American demands, Saddam has sprung a few surprises in the last few days and has been on a charm offensive to woo the international community.

Some experts in the region say the next thing to watch would be the possibility of the “rehabilitation” of Iraq in the coming months, and the fate of Russian proposals for resuming weapons inspections and the lifting of sanctions. —Dawn/ InterPress Service.