LOS ANGELES: With Al Qaeda on the run from Afghanistan, Yemen, Egypt and Sudan cracking down on terrorists, Somalia would be a likely refuge for members of the Al Qaeda network. If the US is to be as successful in Somalia as it has been in Afghanistan, it must keep in mind several lessons from that experience.

Some local warlords will attempt to use US intervention to further their own interests rather than crack down on terrorists. Many of these warlords have accused the transitional government of supporting terrorism and have urged the United States to destroy that government.

The US also must be wary of helping the states that surround Somalia that are inclined to use our interest for their own purposes. Ethiopia, the strongest US ally in the region and a strong supporter of US involvement, has a historical fear of a strong Somalia and actively supports and controls the warlords in the south of Somalia. In December, Ethiopia refused to allow its warlords to attend a Somalia-sponsored conference designed to broker a power-sharing arrangement for the country.

If the US does intervene militarily in Somalia, it cannot leave quickly. A quick military attack followed by a hasty withdrawal would make things worse and create a fertile environment for future terrorists. The humanitarian situation there is already dire. Some 300,000 Somalis in the southern part of the country face starvation because of a drought. Moreover, because of US suspicions that it has helped finance Al Qaeda, the assets of Al Barakaat, the country’s largest bank, have been frozen.

US military intervention must be quite modest, and done in cooperation with other nations, particularly African countries. The so-called Islamic Unity terrorist group, which has been supported by Osama, is not very formidable. It has only 2,000 hard-core supporters and is equipped with only small arms. They have been joined by less than 100 Al Qaeda terrorists fleeing Afghanistan. To the extent that it can work with local tribes and warlords, the US not only limits the risks to its own troops but also avoids evoking memories of the 1992-93 intervention of some 30,000 US troops. —Dawn/LAT-WP News Service (c) Los Angeles Times