THE world has entered what the UN has termed an era of “water bankruptcy”. The phrase is not to be sidelined as over-the-top rhetoric. In many regions, societies have been drawing down water far faster than nature can replenish. Resultantly, rivers, aquifers, glaciers and wetlands have been exhausted in ways that are no longer reversible. The UN University’s latest report warns that water systems across continents are already in a post-crisis state, where one can no longer count on recovery after a drought or flood. This global condition carries particular urgency for Pakistan — a lower-riparian, semi-arid state whose economy, food security and social stability depend overwhelmingly on the Indus basin. Climate change has intensified floods and droughts alike, accelerated glacier melt in the upper reaches of the basin, and worsened groundwater depletion across the plains. Rapid population growth, inefficient irrigation and poor urban water management have pushed demand well beyond sustainable limits. In the language of the UN report, Pakistan has been spending not just its annual “water income” but also its long-term “savings”. Against this backdrop, India’s decision to place the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance is deeply troubling. For more than six decades, the treaty provided predictability, data-sharing and dispute-resolution mechanisms in one of the world’s most heavily used transboundary river systems. Pakistan’s warning at the UN that unilateral actions and information withholding amount to the weaponisation of water should be taken seriously. In an era of water bankruptcy, uncertainty only deepens the crisis, making it harder to plan for agriculture, electricity generation and flood control.

Yet it would be a mistake to see Pakistan’s water predicament through the lens of external threats alone. Even if the treaty remains intact, the country faces an internal reckoning. Bankruptcy management, as the UN report makes clear, is not about returning to a lost past but about adapting honestly to new hydrological realities. That means rethinking crop choices, pricing and subsidies, investing in groundwater regulation and recharge, protecting ecosystems, and modernising irrigation. The coming years will be decisive. With global water risks rising and regional cooperation under strain, Pakistan must prepare for scarcity as a fact of life. Preventing a full-blown water collapse will demand diplomacy abroad, discipline at home and the political courage to act while we can.

Published in Dawn, January 22nd, 2026