It is an interesting time for silver as the US government recently added it to its list of critical minerals. Silver mining will now be prioritised financially and operationally, and the metal will be stockpiled. China has begun applying controls on silver exports, thereby tightening supply. Both countries consider silver essential to the energy, defense, and technology spheres.

Buying, storing, and tracking

Pakistanis can buy silver in several ways: physical metals, mutual funds, and Pakistan Mercantile Exchange futures contracts, though the last option is recommended only for advanced investors. Physical gold and silver can be purchased from reputable jewelers and merchants such as ARY, Karat Jewelers, and dozens of other strong players. Prices are published in leading daily newspapers. Kitco.com, a leader in financial information, has begun publishing prices in tola — in addition to ounces — the former being common in Pakistan.

Silver bars, not jewelry, are ideal for investing because bars are standardised and therefore highly liquid (quickly sellable). Coins are smaller and cheaper, but they carry higher premiums, which can push up the purchase price. The grade or fineness should be 99.9 per cent. Lower grades, such as “sterling silver” (92.5pc), cannot be considered fit for investment.

Timeframes and price potential

It’s imperative to remember that silver is a long-term investment — meaning a timeframe of at least a couple of years and ideally more is required for there to be a sufficient return on investment. Major rallies and corrections, typically lasting two to six months, will occur and are opportunities to buy or sell. It’s useful to build an initial small position and then add over time.

The metal is a long-term investment, requiring at least a couple of years, ideally more, to yield sufficient returns

Michael Oliver, an experienced commentator specialising in momentum structural analysis, a distinct form of technical analysis, expects silver prices to surge to $100-120 per ounce from the current $80-90 during the early months of 2026. Longer term, meaning over the coming years, $370 is favored by Mr Graddhy, the Swedish writer of the Graddhy Report, a veteran analyst focused on cycles. Furthermore, $500-600 is the target favoured by Steve Penny, American writer of the Silver Chartist, a leading technical newsletter on silver.

The drivers of the rise in rates

Industry is the first driver. In recent years, roughly half of silver has been used industrially, and the other half in jewelry and investment. In 2024, industrial demand hit the highest level in history. Silver is the best electrical conductor at room temperature, making it a metal for PV panels used in solar electrification. Electric vehicle-driven demand for silver will also remain strong, as solid-state batteries, which require more silver than lithium-ion batteries, are likely to be the most favoured going forward due to their superior performance.

The second driver — investment and jewellery — is accelerating as families and investors globally are losing confidence in US Treasuries and other government bonds, as well as in paper currencies’ ability to protect purchasing power.

The third driver is monetary policy. Large-scale stimulus and interest rate cuts by central banks to stimulate economies or keep stock, bond, real estate, or other markets afloat are likely to dominate the year or two ahead.

The fourth and final driver is the silver market itself, specifically the following interrelated points: physical demand outstripping the paper market, a more favourable gold/silver ratio, and a catch-up to the inflation-adjusted high. In China, where physical pricing is prominent, prices have been trending $5-8 per ounce higher than in the West.

The gold/silver ratio is around 60:1, but during bull markets, it typically falls first to 40:1 and eventually bottoms at 15:1. Hence, the ratio can fall several times, meaning silver can outperform gold several times. Keeping this analysis in mind, silver should already be at a bare minimum of $110 per ounce.

In conclusion, while all investing involves risk, silver offers the possibility for strong returns when prudently held in a balanced portfolio.

The writer is an independent investor and financial analyst

Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, January 19th, 2026