WITH two vast oceans giving it a sense of security against foreign aggressors, the US could understandably be lulled into believing itself to be inviolable. When the Japanese carried out a surprise attack on Pearl Harbour in 1941, the US woke up, fought back, and emerged as one of the victors of World War II. The next challenge to US supremacy came from the Cold War with the Soviet Union, ending in the dissolution of the latter in 1991. Feeling ultra-secure and confident, the US, now the sole superpower, embarked on extending its outreach to every corner of the globe. Some American analysts started projecting liberal democracy and market economies as the only universal organising principle of governance for all countries.

As the new century dawned, two developments shattered this sense of supremacy. First, Al Qaeda attacked America’s iconic buildings in New York and Washington on Sept 11, 2001. Second, China emerged as a global economic powerhouse and a potential military challenge. While 9/11 led America into distant and never-ending wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, China continued its peaceful rise. A multipolar and interconnected world began to shape up. America decided to contain the further rise of China. In 2017, the US National Security Strategy resolved to advance US influence globally and counter rising powers like China and Russia. This was reinforced by the Biden administration’s NSS-2022, which focused on out-competing China, constraining Russia, defending democracies and human rights, and building coalitions with likeminded powers.

However, the policy to out-compete China didn’t work. Even the attempt to bog down Russia in Ukraine didn’t really go the way the US and Europe had envisaged. At home, US overstretch became costly — debt burden, high unemployment and a deteriorating road infrastructure. America began to review its approach to national security, leading to Trump’s NSS-2025, which stipulated that the US would no longer act as the guarantor of the world order it had helped create eight decades ago. The top priority for it now is the Western Hemisphere, a kind of reassertion of the Monroe Doctrine (1823) as manifested by the recent US attack on Venezuela, which was another blow to the rules-based order. On global issues, the US opted to engage more selectively (securing Greenland; continued support to Israel; military and economic coercion of Iran; preventing China from achieving unification with Taiwan). The US has also decided to deal with China through trade and tariffs, securing supply chains and next-generation missile defence systems.

Internally, President Donald Trump continues with his America First approach, seeking to boost the domestic industrial base, enhance border security, restrict migration, prevent erosion of traditional American values and prioritise emerging technologies for a competitive edge.

What will a reduced global role for the US mean?

What does America’s shrinking footprint on the global stage augur for different regions? For Europe, there is no choice but to decrease its reliance on the transatlantic alliance to secure the continent, spend more on its own regional defence and resolve issues created by liberal migration policies, which the NSS warns could lead to “civilisational erasure”. With shrinking US support, Ukraine is facing defeat at the hands of Russia.

East Asian and Pacific countries are struggling to strike a balance in their ties with China and the US. After the recent retrenchment of America’s global footprint, China is being viewed as the leading global power in Asia, albeit with challenges from Japan and India.

As for South Asia, following the May 2025 conflict with Pak­­istan, India has discovered that its strategic partnership with the US has come under severe strain. While NSS-2017 had predicated America’s Asia pivot on a strategic partnership with India, NSS-2025 mentions India only in terms of its commercial relevance to the US and contribution to Indo-Pacific security. India’s purchase of Russian oil has also upset the US and Europe. With Russia, India has maintained its traditionally strong ties, though President Vladimir Putin’s recent visit to India produced no notable outcome. Border tensions mar its ties with China. India is struggling to strike the right balance in its relations with all major powers, while managing its troubled ties with Pakistan, Bangladesh and other South Asian countries.

Pakistan-US ties are witnessing a reset after a decade-long stalemate, with possible openings for US investment in Pakistan. In NSS-2017, Pakistan was mentioned in the context of transnational terrorism or nuclear security; NSS-2025 does not mention Pakistan. We can debate the impact of America’s changing worldview on various global hotspots and China’s evolving role later.

The writer is former foreign secretary of Pakistan and chairman Sanober Institute.

Published in Dawn, January 18th, 2026