THE fate of Punjab Chief Minister Usman Buzdar has become a permanent feature of the country’s political discourse. A similar round of speculations about his status erupted in the wake of the Senate elections. However, so far there is no clear indication that he is on his way out.

The larger problem is the poor record of governance in Punjab. Whether it is the failure of the waste management system or frequent reshuffling of senior officials, in most areas the government of Chief Minister Buzdar has been found wanting. In addition, weak political management has led to disgruntlement among the ruling coalition parliamentarians from the province.

In the last two years, there has been a visible attempt by the PTI’s federal leadership to run Punjab’s affairs from Islamabad. The results have not been encouraging. Yet, Prime Minister Imran Khan continues to reiterate that Mr Buzdar is the most suitable person for the job.

This despite the fact that people in his own party and allies have been advising him to rethink his decision to keep him on as chief minister. This is linked to an increasing tempo of pulls and pushes by aspirants from within the ruling coalition to elbow their way into the province’s top office. Within the PTI, there is a long list of aspirants who have been lobbying to replace Mr Buzdar. From among the allies, PML-Q leader and Speaker of the Punjab Assembly Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi is seen as the strongest candidate. However, the PTI leadership is said to be reluctant to hand over the reins of the province to an allied party. The PPP is also eyeing an in-house change in the Punjab Assembly by roping in the PML-Q and having the PML-N lend its support. For now, there is little headway on this front.

If the performance of the present chief minister is an indication of how things will be managed ahead, it is hard to see the kind of betterment happening in Punjab as claimed by the ruling party. This means with each passing day the poor governance will start to weigh heavy on the PTI’s re-election prospects in the province. This can have dangerous consequences because Punjab remains a stronghold of the PML-N and mismanagement in political and administrative areas will help the PML-N build its own stock for the next elections.

The prime minister will need to take some action in order to halt the slide. However, the complexity of the situation will make such a change very difficult. Punjab is turning out to be the biggest challenge for the PTI government at a time when it needs to show performance in all areas. Till such a change happens and there are visible signs of improvement in the province, the fate of Usman Buzdar will keep featuring prominently in our national discourse.

Published in Dawn, March 21st, 2021