US Secretary Tillerson is greeted by Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi | Associated Press Service News Agency
US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s recent visit to Pakistan has inevitably brought US policy towards the region into sharper focus. Tillerson’s visit has followed a period in which the US President Donald Trump has publicly warned Pakistan over Afghanistan and alleged militant infiltration from its tribal areas. So it is little surprise that Tillerson’s visit is being carefully analysed to discern if the US motives and intent match its rhetoric.
Rex Tillerson didn’t just visit Pakistan. He visited Kabul first and from Islamabad went to Delhi as well. That in itself tells us that US policy in the region is really now the sum total of Afghanistan, India and Pakistan; in the case of India and Pakistan it has become a zero sum game where someone will lose. This is not really a surprise and has, in fact, been an open secret for several years. America has been openly encouraging India to play a greater role in Afghanistan for some time now.
US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley piled on the pressure against Pakistan on the eve of Tillerson’s visit saying, “America’s overriding interest in Afghanistan and throughout South Asia is to eliminate terrorist havens that threaten us. And to keep nuclear weapons out of the hands of terrorists, we will use all the elements of our national power, economic diplomatic and military to pursue these goals ... . We are really going to need India’s help in Afghanistan. They are good neighbours that we have in the region. So, having them helps not only with infrastructure and the aide that they can give towards rebuilding Afghanistan, [they can] also help us to keep an eye on Pakistan.” That is certainly an oversimplification of America’s interests — gaining influence over Central Asia’s oil and gas is surely something that has not escaped American attention or the fact that it wants to contain Chinese ambitions in the region. Yet with India, the American desire to build an enduring strategic relationship could not be clearer.
Despite its ‘do more’ mantra, America needs Pakistan to continue its operations in Afghanistan
This indeed is a blow for Pakistan — “keeping an eye on Pakistan” is almost casting Pakistan as a potential enemy. Rather than acknowledging Pakistan’s vast political and military investment in the American project in the region over the last 16 years [that by Pakistan’s reckoning has seen over 80,000 Pakistanis killed, more than 121 billion dollars lost and a serious domestic political backlash], America has now decided to make India the centrepiece of its South Asian strategy. In 2001, explaining his decision to join the US ‘War on Terror’ General Pervez Musharraf had argued that Pakistan had to co-operate with America, otherwise Pakistan would find the Americans joining hands with India at Pakistan’s expense. Well, that has happened anyway and Pakistan is sending its troops to fight, while without lifting a finger, India is getting all the American kudos and gratitude. One has to ask: how has Pakistan ended up in this position?
Whilst America embraces India at the expense of Pakistan, America has not finished with telling Pakistan to do more, in fact a lot more. Tillerson set his theme for Pakistan when he landed in Kabul, outlining the conditions for a future relationship with America saying, “It will be based upon whether they [Pakistan] take action that we feel is necessary to move the process forward for both creating opportunity for reconciliation and peace in Afghanistan but also ensuring a stable future Pakistan.”
Despite all the tough talk about defeating the Taliban emanating from Washington over the last few months Tillerson effectively extended an olive branch to the Taliban saying, “Clearly, we have to continue the fight against the Taliban and against others in order for them to understand they will never win a military victory. And there are, we believe, moderate voices among the Taliban — voices that do not want to continue to fight forever. They don’t want their children to fight forever. We are looking to engage with those voices and have them engage in a reconciliation process leading to a peace process and their full involvement and participation in the government.”
Maybe the realisation of the true American position dawned upon Tillerson as he was forced to sit in a windowless bunker on Bagram airbase with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, unable to make the short trip to the Afghan presidential palace, instigating his impromptu invite.
Yet preceding Tillerson’s imminent arrival, there was an upsurge in US drone strikes on Afghan territory bordering Pakistan that killed 31 people. Given uncertainty as to whether any drone strikes landed in Pakistan, Pakistan’s Foreign Minister Khawaja Asif was somewhat rattled with the confusion, arguing that the Afghan-Pakistan border was too difficult to determine whether any strikes had landed in Pakistan territory or not. This was despite other junior Pakistani government officials being much more confident in stressing the importance of Pakistan’s sovereignty and territory. Indeed it is remarkable that with Pakistan having contributed so heavily to the American war effort, Pakistani ministers continue to appear reluctant and hesitant to stress the importance of Pakistan as a sovereign state and to entertain any criticism of the US in its unruly behaviour across the border.