THE recent agreement with Turkmenistan and Russia to become partners in the plan to import electricity via a long transmission line from Central Asia to Pakistan is vindication of the vision that lies behind the project. Known as the CASA 1000 project, it originally involved the import of hydroelectric power via a transmission line from Tajikistan to Pakistan in the summer months. But then, Russia and Turkmenistan expressed an interest in becoming partners as well, and since these countries have substantial surpluses of thermal power, it became feasible to keep the line energised during the winter months too. Now officials in the power sector from around Central Asia are preparing for a meeting of a group known as the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation that Pakistan is hosting in October and during which the participation of other countries in CASA can be discussed.

The vision is a grand one. A large regional power grid can connect multiple countries across Central and South Asia, with a market-based mechanism to feed power into the grid and draw from it depending on need. Massive grids of this sort were envisioned many decades ago but only now are they starting to come to our part of the world. CASA has broken the ground, and with growing interest from countries such as Russia and Turkmenistan, it is clear that the transmission line has opened a door to the vast energy surpluses of Central Asia. In time, it can grow to include numerous countries, and perhaps eventually even Iran and India with Pakistan and Afghanistan reaping substantial benefits as participants as well as from transit fees.

But there is one big problem that stands in the way of realising this vision: geopolitics. Security remains the biggest question mark hanging over the project since a substantial part of the transmission line will have to travel through Afghanistan. India and Pakistan are in the midst of an escalating spat as the crackdown in Kashmir grows more brutal by the day. And dealings with Iran continue to face substantial obstacles in spite of the withdrawal of sanctions. Pakistan can play a role in controlling some of the geopolitical issues that hang over the vision of a regional power grid, but ultimately the fate of that vision will be decided by the amorphous forces of history larger than any single government. The project should move ahead step by step therefore. Making CASA operational is a reasonable proposition. The government should do everything in its power to make headway in the CASA project during the forthcoming CAREC gathering. The security questions hanging over the project should not be underestimated, but neither should the potential benefits. Rarely have cooperation and confrontation yielded so stark a trade-off. Given the possibilities that a regional power grid opens up, its pursuit should not be allowed to fall out of focus.

Published in Dawn, August 21st, 2016