After months of slumber, which saw several top hopefuls search their souls before nixing a run, the Republican field has burst into life, 17 months before Democrat Obama will ask voters for a second term. — File Photo

WASHINGTON: An impossible-to-predict race is unfolding for the Republican nod to take on President Barack Obama in 2012, confounding the buttoned-down party's trend of favoring anointed heirs.

After months of slumber, which saw several top hopefuls search their souls before nixing a run, the Republican field has burst into life, 17 months before Democrat Obama will ask voters for a second term.

One top contender, Mitt Romney, launched his second White House bid this week by accusing Obama of Europe-style socialism, while Sarah Palin teased reporters on a cat-and-mouse chase around American landmarks.

Romney's top establishment rival Tim Pawlenty courted evangelical Christians and trekked through Iowa in the kind of campaign the exacting voters in February's first-in-the nation contest demand.

Two big questions dominated commentary running into the Republican race.

First, could Republicans, pulled right by the ultra-conservative Tea Party, pick a candidate compatible with the center ground where US presidential elections are normally won?

And is the nomination worth having at all, as Obama, who even critics admit is a master campaigner, builds a war chest that may reach a billion dollars and exploits all the advantages of incumbency?

In May, Obama's ratings spiked in the wake of the daring special forces raid into Pakistan to kill Osama bin Laden, and his prospects looked strong.

But, one week of dismal economic data later, the Republican nomination suddenly looks more tantalizing and candidates are lacerating Obama over the slow recovery and jobs growth.

“If the economy does not improve, or if it starts to slide backwards, the president does not have very much of a cushion,” said Professor Costas Panagopoulos of Fordham University in New York.

“That is something that creates a natural opportunity for any credible Republican contender.” Polls mean little at this early stage, but top candidates must convince big money donors they have a viable path to the nomination.

But with the Republican grassroots fragmented, and with no obvious nominee, strategizing is tougher than ever - and as always, how a candidate performs against expectations in a particular state can say more than vote tallies.

The frontrunner in the jumbled Republican field, Romney wheeled out his campaign on Thursday, wrapping himself in the US flag in an “American as apple pie” setting in New Hampshire.

With his square jaw and perfect haircut, he looks like a president - but some see the millionaire former Massachusetts governor as juicy target, due to an unfortunate history of political flip-flops.

Romney is also vulnerable over his Massachusetts health care plan, similar to Obama's national scheme, which conservatives despise.

He might be the frontrunner, but Romney is a weak one, garnering just 17 percent to top a RealClearPolitics average of Republican presidential polls.

Romney's top Republican establishment foe may be Pawlenty.

The former Minnesota governor probably needs nothing less than a win in Iowa and a showing in the New Hampshire primary that squeezes Romney to run a viable campaign.

Romney has an Iowa dilemma and has not yet committed to contest the state.

In 2008, Romney bet large in the state, but was beaten by conservative favorite Mike Huckabee, dealing a severe blow to his campaign. Another loss to a right-wing champion could once again raise questions about his viability.

“If Pawlenty can win Iowa, can make a serious run at Romney and Romney limps out of New Hampshire, (Romney) could easily be done,” said Dante Scala, a political analyst at the University of New Hampshire.

The Tea Party, set up by conservatives opposed to Obama's “big government”ways, has yet to unite around a candidate.

Palin, the former Alaska governor, can still steal a headline, skewer rivals where they are weakest and tap into the conservative soul.

She would likely ignite the Tea Party crowd, but doubts remain over her commitment to run and negative approval ratings that could doom a general election bid.

One-time Palin protege, Congresswoman Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite, may be an alternative standard bearer for the fiscal and religious right.

Another possible candidate, former governor Jon Huntsman of Utah, seems a fit for the center ground of a general election.

But Huntsman may be too moderate for the conservative grassroots and has a major vulnerability - he served Obama as ambassador to China.

Long-shot candidates include Newt Gingrich a former Republican House speaker whose campaign has had a poor start. Former senator and evangelical favorite Rick Santorum and libertarian champion Ron Paul may also run.

Even former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani is taking a look - despite his dismal 2008 campaign.