LAHORE, June 29: The country continues to face 20 per cent water shortage with rivers receding once again against official projections. The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) had forecast that water flows would improve substantially by June 25 and shortages would absolutely end by the month-end.

The combined river flow dropped on Tuesday to 227,300 cusecs, less than half of last year's 525,000 cusecs the same day. During the last two days, Tarbela level dropped by five feet as the Indus River System Authority (Irsa) is forced to release additional water from the lake to meet irrigation needs of cotton, rice and sugar cane crops.

On Tuesday, the lake stood at 1,415 feet. It was 1,418 feet on Monday and 1,420 on Sunday. On the corresponding day last year, the dam level was 1,487 feet and river inflow was 293,000 cusecs against 124,000 cusecs on Tuesday (this year).

Mangla dam which stood at 1,139 feet also faced depletion as Irsa increased releases from 15,000 cusecs on Monday to 25,000 cusecs on Tuesday. It planned to increase the discharge to 30,000 cusecs on Wednesday (today) to compensate for the drop in Chenab flows.

The Mangla level on Tuesday stood at 1,139 feet against 1,192 feet last year on the same day. River Chenab has come down from 36,700 cusecs on Monday to 29,600 cusecs on Tuesday - a drop of 7000 cusecs in 24 hours. Last year, the river had a flow of 58,700 cusecs.

River Kabul is the worst hit. It recorded a flow of 39,000 cusecs against 88,300 cusecs last year. With June turning pleasant as far as the temperature is concerned, the river inflows have shrunk.

"With no certain forecast, the Irsa can hardly plan anything with some measure of certainty," says an Irsa official. It is almost disaster situation with dams' level dropping in rainy or flood season.

The country needs canals flowing to their capacity from June 10 to September 30. These four months are crucial for cotton, rice and sugar cane. Now Irsa is depleting dams to meet cotton's water requirements and it would continue doing so for rice and sugar cane during the next few weeks.

If river supplies remain as volatile as they are now, maturity of cotton crop may face serious pressure. An official of the Punjab Agriculture Department expressed some worries about the next wheat crop as well.

"If all water supplies are consumed now by the current crops, one does not know what will happen to wheat in November next. The whole planning has turned topsy turvy by the erratic behaviour of rivers this season and one can hardly predict anything," he said. On the other hand, officials of the Meteorological office claim that there would be normal monsoon rains this year.