LONDON: The British government may restrict visa applications from students living in countries — including Pakistan — that are considered most likely to claim asylum in a move designed to bring down annual net migration, a government official said.

The move comes after Bri­tish Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party was punished in local elections in England last week by voters angry over issues, including illegal immigration. The government is expected next week to publish a policy document, known as a white paper, which will set out how the government plans to reduce net migration, which reached 728,000 people in the year to June last year.

“Our upcoming Immi­g­r­ation White Paper will set out a comprehensive plan to restore order to our broken immigration system,” the Home Office said in a statement. High levels of legal migration have long dominated Bri­tain’s political conversation and were one of the major drivers for the Brexit referendum in 2016. Out of the 108,000 people who claimed asylum in Britain last year, 16,000 had student visas, government data shows.

The government does not provide a breakdown of the nationalities of those who had student visas, who went on to claim asylum. But the government said people from Pakistan, Nigeria and Sri Lanka were the most likely to claim asylum in Britain after arriving on a work, student, or a visitor visa.

In the aftermath of the party’s poor local election results last week, some Labour members of parliament urged the government to do more to take a more decisive approach on issues such as bringing down net migration. Jo White, who represents a group of lawmakers in previously Labour heartlands known as the “Red Wall”, said the government should stop “pussyfooting around”.

According to the Times newspaper, which first reported the story, the Home Office is attempting to build intelligence that will allow caseworkers to spot patterns in the profiles of people who are most likely to abuse work and study visas as a loophole to claim asylum.

Officials have earmarked Pakistani, Nigerian and Sri Lankan visa holders as the most likely to go on to apply for asylum. According to The Guardian, they are working with the NCA to build a model that would reject a visa claim from a person who fits the profile of someone likely to go on to claim asylum.

Challenges and criticism

Madeleine Sumption, the director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, said it was difficult to assess whether the government and the NCA would be able to create such a model.

“The key question, and one that is hard to assess from the outside, is if they have the information to accurately decide who is likely to claim asylum after they arrive. Because obviously it can be quite difficult.”

Diana Beech, a London higher educational professional, told Dawn in a statement: “The recent gains by Reform UK in the local and mayoral elections across England have clearly spooked the UK government, which is now looking for ways to show voters it means business when it comes to bringing down net migration levels.

“Unfortunately, the latest proposal to restrict visas to students from certain countries, which may make it into the forthcoming Immigration White Paper, shows the government is prepared to bite the hand that feeds us in an effort to demonstrate it is taking action to reduce numbers. International students from Pakistan and India, among others, provide a vital source of income and ideas to UK universities and take their talents and skills out into the global workforce when they start building their careers.”

She concluded by saying this “seemingly quick win” for the UK government would “prove to be a big hit to the UK economy”.

With input from Reuters

Published in Dawn, May 7th, 2025