OBSERVING the transformation of the United States under Donald Trump, both domestically and internationally, has been fascinating. It was widely believed that while a US president wielded influence over other nations, he had little power to challenge the entrenched bureaucracy and military establishment that truly governed the country. Likewise, it was considered unthinkable that the US and Europe could diverge significantly on critical issues. Trump has disproved both assumptions.

In his second term, Trump has succe-ssfully dismantled key elements of the civilian and military bureaucracy. Once dominant, these institutions are now struggling to maintain relevance. He also shattered the notion that hostility towards China and Russia was as ingrained as the transatlantic partnership with Europe.

In his first month, Trump alarmed Europe with threats to take over Green-land, and proposed cutting aid that was fuelling the Ukraine-Russia war. He also talked tough about Nato.

Simultaneously, he engaged diplom-atically with Russia, and pursued better ties with China. His softer stance on Taiwan signalled a significant departure from previous US policies.

While European nations framed the war in Ukraine as a fight for its survival, Trump viewed it as unnecessary and avoidable. He condemned the loss of young soldiers and civilians on both sides as tragic, and committed to ending the conflict through negotiations — bypassing Europe entirely by proposing Saudi Arabia as a possible mediator.

Trump is known for his unpredictability, but his current stance — consistently advocating against European interests while favouring China and Russia — signals a geopolitical shift unlike anything seen in the past two centuries. He seems to have recognised that maintaining close ties with Europe, despite its wealth, has been costly for the US.

He believes that Europe has relied on American taxpayers’ money while fuelling unnecessary wars at America’s expense. He also sees Europe losing its edge in scientific discovery, declining in global market influence, lacking control over rare earth metals — now crucial for modern industries — and experiencing economic stagnation for decades. In contrast, Trump views the future as belonging to emerging economies that are steadily increasing their share in global trade, investment and business.

European analysts are deeply concerned about the American moves that mark a significant departure from traditional transatlantic alliances. This has prompted European leaders to push for increased defence spending and a more assertive foreign policy. The European Union is actively enhancing its defence capabilities, recognising the necessity of self-reliance as US support becomes increasingly unpredictable.

China and Russia, on their part, are relieved. The shift signifies that the US has detached itself from historical commitments and burdens, repositioning itself as a free agent on the global stage.

In this recalibrated geopolitical posture, the US sees its strategic interests better served through alliances with China, Russia, and the other emerging powers.

Qamar Bashir
Islamabad

Published in Dawn, March 6th, 2025