Pakistan’s World Cup campaign has taken a hit with four consecutive losses following their initial two victories, putting them on the brink of elimination from semi-final contention. Now, the outcomes of other matches are as crucial as Pakistan’s own victories in the remaining two games if they want to to secure a top-four spot.

The race for the semi-finals is in full swing, with 13 league matches remaining (including India vs Sri Lanka today). India and South Africa seem almost certain to secure semi-final berths. Australia is in third place, while New Zealand’s loss to South Africa in Pune last night has intensified the battle for the fourth position.

Pakistan are currently fifth on the points table, having six points from seven matches and are ahead of Afghanistan at the moment due to their net run rate (NRR), which currently is -0.024.

By winning their upcoming matches against the Kiwis on Nov 4 and England on Nov 11, coupled with favourable outcomes from other games, Pakistan do have a remote chance.

Pakistan’s route to the semifinals

According to the International Cricket Council (ICC), Pakistan’s path to success necessitates winning both of their remaining matches while maintaining a superior NRR than several other teams that could potentially finish with 10 points.

If Pakistan were to lose one of their remaining two matches, the team’s chances would then hinge significantly on the results of other teams.

In that scenario, according to the ICC: “Australia lose all of their three remaining matches, New Zealand lose their two remaining matches, while Afghanistan lose at least two of their three remaining matches, and Pakistan finish with a better NRR than the many other teams that can also finish on eight points.”

In order to outpace New Zealand’s NRR, Pakistan will need to secure a victory against the BlackCaps by a margin of at least 83 runs or accomplish a successful chase within approximately 35 overs in the upcoming clash in Bengaluru on Saturday, according to cricket statistician Mazher Arshad.

Subsequently, Pakistan must sustain and further improve their performance in the final game against England to finish with a better NRR.

In the bleakest scenario for Pakistan fans, if the team loses both of their remaining matches, there won’t be any scenario left for their World Cup journey other than a safe return home for the team.