SKOPJE: Macedonia’s hopes of joining the European Union and Nato were in limbo on Monday, a day after voters backed a plan to change the country’s name by a large margin but failed to hit the 50 per cent turnout required for the referendum result to be valid.

Prime Minister Zoran Zaev said he would press on regardless with a vote in parliament to endorse the change of name to the ‘Republic of North Macedonia’ but the defence minister said an early election might now prove necessary, potentially derailing the whole plan due to a tight timeframe.

Some 91 per cent of voters backed the name change, demanded by neighbouring Greece as a precondition for it lifting its veto on Macedonia joining the EU and Nato. But turnout was just 36.9 per cent, final figures showed, far below the required threshold.

The EU, echoing the pro-Western Zaev, hailed the referendum result as a ringing endorsement of Macedonia’s plans to join the bloc and Nato.

“It is now in the hands of politicians in Skopje to decide on the way forward,” Nato head Jens Stoltenberg and top EU official Donald Tusk said in a joint statement. “We encourage them to seize this historic opportunity.” Russia, which opposes Nato eastern expansion, said it expected the law in Macedonia to be respected.

Zaev lacks the two thirds majority in parliament to push through the name change, and the main nationalist opposition VMRO-DPMNE has vowed to block the legislation. Many of its supporters did not vote in order to invalidate the result.

“In the coming week we will assess if we can secure the necessary majority for the constitutional changes, and if not we will call an early election,” Defence Minister Radmila Sekerinska said.

“The downside is that the election would postpone adoption of the constitutional changes for 45 to 60 days,” she said.

Political analysts said the outcome greatly complicated the tiny ex-Yugoslav republic’s push to join Western structures.

“Instead of having a clearer picture the outcome of the referendum will only deepen the political crisis,’ said Petar Arsovski a political analyst. “We are likely heading towards early elections and Macedonia does not have time for that.” Greece tried to put a brave face on the setback.

“We hope that Mr Zaev’s initiative for a constitutional reform will be successful,” Greek government spokesman Dimitris Tzanakopoulos said on Monday.

“The Greek government will continue with sobriety and prudence ... to support the need for an implementation of the deal. This opportunity must not be wasted,” he said.

Greece has insisted on the change because it views the name ‘Macedonia’ as implying a territorial claim on a northern Greek region of that name. Greece’s parliament must also approve the June name deal and, like Zaev, leftist Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras also faces opposition from his nationalist foes.

Published in Dawn, October 2nd, 2018