ISLAMABAD: The monsoon pattern is in decline for the rest of the season, but heavy rainfall is expected in the middle of next week in the twin cities and parts of Hazara, Malakand and Kashmir.

The Met Office has said weak monsoon currents are continuously penetrating upper parts of the country from the east and are likely to strengthen from today (Sunday).

At the same time, a westerly wave is also likely to influence upper parts of the country on Tuesday and Wednesday. The combination is expected to bring heavy rainfall, leading to flash foods and mudslides in hilly areas.

Rain-thundershowers with gusts of wind are expected in scattered locations across the country, including the Mirpurkhas, Thatta, Hyderabad, Shaheed Benazirabad, Sukkur and Larkana divisions in Sindh and the Zhob and Kalat divisions in Balochistan.

Rainfall is expected in Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan from Monday to Wednesday.

Overall rainfall in the country this monsoon has been around 21pc below normal between July 1 and Aug 3. Rainfall was above normal in Punjab, KP and GB in July, below normal in Sindh and Balochistan and close to normal in Azad Jammu and Kashmir.

The future outlook for rainfall is bleak, as localised phenomenon was discouraging the inflow of clouds from the Bay of Bengal towards the Himalayas.

“Monsoon systems are likely to weaken gradually during August, producing less than average rainfall,” the Met Office said, adding that this would exaggerate prevailing drought conditions in parts of Balochistan and Sindh.

Below average rainfall is also expected in the catchment areas of major rivers, which may be a matter of concern particularly for Mangla Dam, as the monsoon is likely to decline further in September.

Published in Dawn, August 5th, 2018