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Modi real, the wave unreal

Updated Mar 14, 2017 11:11am

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PUNDITRY notwithstanding, all five Indian states that went to polls recently saw their governments getting evicted. The victims included the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Congress and the Uttar Pradesh-based Samajwadi Party. In a direct contest between the BJP and Congress in four of the states, it was two each. The BJP was ousted from Goa, which gives Prime Minister Modi his handpicked defence minister. The BJP and its Akali allies were shown the door in Punjab, the state from where Mr Modi promised to stop river water flowing to Pakistan.

What lessons are we to draw from these BJP defeats before we discuss Uttar Pradesh where the party trounced everyone and pulverised many into seeing a Modi wave? Anyone with the street power combined with a pliable media’s lung power, the kind the BJP commands today, can go to town with any number of wild interpretations on the verdict. His opponents, if they had the wherewithal, which they don’t, could claim, for example, that Punjab and Goa were mandates against Defence Minister Parrikar’s and Modi’s militarist policies with neighbours, which of course would be a canard. But the claim could be dressed up as fact with lungpower on TV. This is how pliable media markets political events — with spin and bias.

And this has been the pattern from the time the editor disappeared as the buffer between the newsroom and the proprietor, and the owners of TV channels and newspapers began to push their agenda as fact. The Modi wave is their interpretation of the recent state polls, but it bears little or no resemblance to fact.

Against two losses for the BJP, the Congress lost two of its own states in Manipur and Uttarakhand. If the smaller states of Goa and Manipur, which returned hung assemblies were not significant in anyone’s calculation, why would BJP president Amit Shah claim, falsely, that the BJP had won in four, instead of two states? Bluster works. In both Goa, where the BJP lost, and Manipur, where Congress lost, Congress emerged as the largest party.


What lessons are we to draw from the BJP defeats before we discuss UP where the party trounced everyone?


According to an encouraging precedence laid down by Rajiv Gandhi in 1989, the ruling party which loses the mandate in an election should not stake claim to form the new government without a majority even if it is the single largest party. Rajiv Gandhi, who was reduced from an unprecedented 400-plus seats to a minority, sat in the opposition despite Congress getting the highest tally. He let an archrival cobble a government with the support of the BJP and the Marxists.

In the current context it means that the Congress should step down in Manipur and the BJP should vacate Goa. But Mr Shah has to claim a greater victory than the party got, and the question of political rectitude does not apply in such circumstances.

Statistics is a double-edged sword. The BJP gained seats in Uttar Pradesh under Modi’s watch but lost percentage points in vote share from his parliamentary performance. In fact, the BJP almost exactly replicated the performance of the Congress in 1980, when the Congress won 309 seats with 39.6 per cent of the votes, while the BJP won 11 seats with 10.8pc votes. In 2017, the BJP has 312 seats with 39.7pc votes, while the Congress has seven seats with 6.2pc of the state’s votes. Wave?

In fact, the BJP’s vote share dipped by three percentage points from its 2014 peak of 42.7pc. On the other hand, former chief minister Mayawati’s tally went up from 2014 parliamentary polls when she drew a blank with an approximately 18pc vote share. Congress with half her votes got Sonia Gandhi and her son elected as MPs in 2014. Mayawati didn’t get a single MP. Should we accept Congress as more popular in Uttar Pradesh than Mayawati?

Who or what should be blamed for the BJP’s drop by three percentage points even if the seat share went up? And what kind of a wave was it that the BJP’s chief minister in Goa lost his own constituency? The questions are vital if one is claiming or disputing a Modi wave. Was it the absence of a Muzaffarnagar-like assault on Muslims that the vote share in Uttar Pradesh dipped, or was it demonetisation that eroded the count?

Ambedkar told us that Hindu-Muslim riots create a transient Hindu identity and in peacetime everyone goes back to their caste jostling. We should add here without demur that a communal riot might not be necessary today if the media can be harnessed to poison the minds ‘peacefully’. Mr Modi is a gifted orator, the media his force multiplier.

The Gujarat narrative of successive victories for Mr Modi reflects Ambedkar’s analysis of caste behaviour, whereby the BJP cobbled together adversarial groups such as the Patels and Dalits under one anti-Muslim canopy. The caste reality also extends to Muslims even if the fact is seldom acknowledged. So why did many Muslims vote for the BJP, as the results suggest, even though Hindutva leaders mocked and abused them? We have no evidence to go by Ms Mayawati’s claims that the electronic voter machines were rigged. However, if the CIA can keep an eye on us through our TV screens, as recently revealed by WikiLeaks, then tweaking a distant microchip is theoretically possible. There is no proof, however, that this transpired in the recent polls. Nevertheless, the BJP’s victory in Muslim-dominated constituencies like Deoband doesn’t add up.

Uttar Pradesh is flanked on the west by Delhi and on the east by Bihar, both states that roundly spurned Mr Modi’s appeal in previous polls. Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa are separated by long distances. What kind of a wave did Mr Modi whip up that it ebbs here and flows there?

The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Delhi.

jawednaqvi@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, March 14th, 2017

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The views expressed by this writer and commenters below do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Dawn Media Group.



Comments (202) Closed



Kittu Mar 14, 2017 04:37am

A contrarian convincing analysis. Only thing left out is: How they won in Muslim dominated areas. If BJP can win Muslim votes, it will rule for long time to come.

Harmony-1© Mar 14, 2017 04:46am

"The BJP and its Akali allies were shown the door in Punjab, the state from where Mr Modi promised to stop river water flowing to Pakistan."

Peace! Happy Holi to all.

Ahmed Mar 14, 2017 04:46am

Lets accept Modi's grand victory, whether we like it or not, no doubt there. Surprising Muslim voting to BJP is probably by women supporting BJP's opposition tripple talaq (divoce by a husband by uttering talaq three times) as non-Islamic. What goes in favour of BJP is also its stress on education to Muslim youth, scholarships offered. Modi's promise of economical development, everybody gets benefit of it, muslims included, must have attracted youth. Yadav's opposed Modi, but others plus some Muslim support made the victory a history. Let's accept the history openly.

AYZA Mar 14, 2017 05:01am

Many thanks to Mr. Naqvi for setting the record straight re Modi's questionable "wins" in traditionally Muslim areas, i.e., UP and Deoband. I have Indian Muslims university friends from both these areas and after they talked to relatives who voted in these elections - none of them voted for Modi or his party reps. In fact they abhor the man and all he stands for.

It's quite astonishing how many pro-Modi Indian readers of dawn.com spin their own glorified view of how and why Modi won in certain states. It's as if the BJP and Modi never lost a single seat or region in India which is certainly not the case! Having seen firsthand how electronic voting machines can be manipulated, one shouldn't be surprised if Modi and his media billionaire "friends" manipulated the voting outcome in his favor.

Gary Mar 14, 2017 05:08am

Pretty bad analysis Modi won 83 of seats in UP and without Muslim votes that was impossible and it happened because of Modi wave . Also Goa and Manipur , BJP forming a government, get your facts right.

ENIGMA Mar 14, 2017 05:33am

Quite a few mixed results from recent Indian elections. It's quite clear that Modi's win in UP was mostly due to a highly nationalist media blitzkrieg which created a "Bollywood" like PR campaign to brainwash and manipulate a highly gullible and less educated Indian voter who turned the election around in UP for Modi. Yet on the other side, Modi lost badly in GOA and other areas where BJP CM's were ruling the roost. So go figure!

People's will Mar 14, 2017 05:56am

The basic problem is the opposition has made itself totally irrelevant by it's policy of opposition for the sake of opposition.

The Indian people are furious with this attitude of opposition.

PM Modi has been very shrewdly pleading repeatedly that he should be given 60 months after 60 years' congress rule.

Desperation of Rahul Gandhi has made a caricature of himself and the people of India are speaking through the ballot box.

Rajeev Nidumolu Mar 14, 2017 06:43am

"Nevertheless, the BJP’s victory in Muslim-dominated constituencies like Deoband doesn’t add up."

It adds up if Muslim women voted for BJP because of triple Talaq issue

VB Mar 14, 2017 07:03am

Not in alignment with my belief, but logical, factual, nicely written. I have one question, wouldn't Muslim women vote for party pushing Uniform Civil Code, imagine someone fearing divorce like situation for a near and dear, may be?

P. S. Natarajan Mar 14, 2017 07:06am

Muslims definitely didn't vote for BJP in Deoband or anywhere, nor are likely to do so in future, but their votes got divided between the secular parties. These are, however, the secularists and not the BJP, who do their best to polarize. For example, Mayawati while giving many tickets to Muslims asked all Muslims to vote for her party thereby inadvertently suggesting that all Hindus minus Dalits vote for the BJP.

hem pant Mar 14, 2017 07:56am

It looks like Muslim women have voted for Modi in Muslim dominated area . Good work

SATT Mar 14, 2017 08:12am

People who are calling it a Modi wave actually saying common people are fool..No..Indian voters are intelligent voters,they voted for BJP not because of Modi but they wanted to put new player in power cycle which was one time SP and other time BSP.By doing this people have created a new power pole which can challenge other poles if they are becoming same by that reducing the probability to be get bounded.It is just like creating more options.The article has not been updated BJP has already made governments in remaining two states of Goa and Manipur so what Amit Shah was saying was right.These elections are also have said one thing that Muslims are now politically irrelevant in UP.

Amit Mar 14, 2017 08:24am

Well written article with convincing analysis. Didn't realize that people drove away the current government from all the states until I read this.

R. Kannan Mar 14, 2017 08:21am

BJP won in Muslim dominated constituencies which merely shows that Mr Naqwi's ranting is not shared by other Muslims.

Ms Mar 14, 2017 08:24am

Bjp forming govt in 4 out of 5 states. Poor analysis.

Feroz Mar 14, 2017 08:33am

BJP victory in your home state is difficult to swallow it seems. What you cannot see is that voting on the basis of caste and religion is going out of vogue. For long fear mongers had created insecurity in the mind of voters to garner votes on caste and religious lines. It is very difficult for many like you to understand that the negative stimuli is not swaying voters who are now demanding a lot more. Leave aside a lot more, the opposition to the BJP got many chances but delivered nothing.

Old leftists fogies and members of the Establishment that enjoyed power and perks for seven decades are unable to cope with the tide of shifting sands. To believe that needs and aspirations of Indian Muslims is very different from the rest of the population is a cardinal mistake made not just by this author but also large sections of the media. The needs are the same of faster economic growth and prosperity accompanied by lesser harassment through corruption. Time to wake up, fear does not sell !

Focus Mar 14, 2017 08:37am

India ia still not using it's quota of Indus water. Mr. Modi can apply water treaty any time if he wants. Remember it is central gov matter not state's and Narendra Modi is strong PM of India not CM of any state.

truth Mar 14, 2017 08:38am

I don't know why people like Jawed Naqvi, Barkha Dutt, Rana Ayub etc find it difficult to accept facts that BJP is here to stay. In 2019 elections too it will be BJP. Congress is a mess. The entire party is now like Rahul Gandhi, not knowing what to do. So please accept the facts.

Syed Mohammed habeeb Mar 14, 2017 08:43am

In Goa and Manipur, the BJP are forming the government as they are rallying the independent candidates behind them.

Muneer Mar 14, 2017 08:48am

Very convincing and evidenced.

R S Chakravarti Mar 14, 2017 08:55am

@Harmony-1© That promise was really nonsense. As far as I can see it was just a bit of chest-thumping. And (Indian) Punjab is supposed to be the place where people would welcome better relations most of all. Let us hope for the best.

R S Chakravarti Mar 14, 2017 09:00am

@Kittu One explanation I have seen is that Muslim votes were split among different parties. In any case, the new rulers have to take care of the Muslims also. That is the important thing.

Right Mar 14, 2017 08:59am

I have never seen such poor post poll analysis. Facts 1. Undoubtly Muslims (mainly women) in UP voted for BJP. 2. Manipur from 0 MLA to 23 big jump vote share increased many folds most likely BJP will form govt. 3. GOA vote share increased but lost the seats due to broken alliance with MGP which split the BJP VOTES. 4. Punjab BJP Was a smaller partner here. And the shots are called by akalies. Still 17 seats with 32% votes with 10yrs of antiincumbacy is pretty discent fight when projection was to get only 3-4 seats.

OLD MONK Mar 14, 2017 09:00am

@MS. " BJP forming govt in 4 out of 5 states. Poor analysis."

I have 65 years of experience and witness to all this for pretty long period.

Are we here to hold brief on behalf of our Country ....? Why should we, for any good reason; if there is any ?

In life one need not answer every charge raised. Listen to other people and concentrate on better things in life !

AMIYA DEKA Mar 14, 2017 09:09am

@Harmony-1© Modi never said anything like stopping river water to Pakistan. He said India will not let a single drop of 20% of water which is due to India as per treaty to flow into Pakistan.

AMIYA DEKA Mar 14, 2017 09:10am

@Kittu , Yes things have started changing on the ground for better. How long one can fool the people?

R S Chakravarti Mar 14, 2017 09:10am

@Gary In these states, the BJP lost in the sense that it isn't the largest party in the Assembly; the Congress is. But the BJP got support from others.

I don't know about Manipur, but the Goa Congress was supposed to be extremely corrupt earlier. I don't know whether there are any such allegations about Parrikar. All this may be legally irrelevant but surely matters to the public.

Khem Mar 14, 2017 09:15am

I do agree with writer to a certain extent, I think BJP government was rejected by people of Goa but Amit Shah doesn't want to accept this defeat. That's why he proposed Manohar Parrikar the current Defense Minister for CM's post to fool people of Goa. BJP must understand here merely changing CM's face doesn't mean that it has right to form government. BJP is doing horse-trading in Manipaur too where Congress has won most number of seats. Though it was remarkable that BJP has won 21 seats in Manipur where earlier it has no presence.

So it should be Congress who should get first chance to form government both in Goa and Manipur not BJP.

anees Mar 14, 2017 09:32am

Good attempt at playing down victory of BJP and Modi. UP has areas where 80% votes are with Muslims which BJP won. What does it mean!!! The answer my friend is blowing in the wind...as they say.

Vish Mar 14, 2017 09:35am

Below par and poor analysis I can say .

rajendra Mar 14, 2017 09:39am

He is right. MODI is real and wave may not be real.

Suppression of women in Muslim community has shifted some of the muslims(women) votes. As usual, you don't know which card MODI will play.

Human first Mar 14, 2017 10:03am

Some points missing BJP lost in goa due to leaders living BJP before election and forming aliance with shiv sena which lost badly .Other parties have put condition that they will suppor BJP if Mr Parrikar becomes CM. BJP was no where in Manipur but have performed very well there .No other party is ready to support Congress in Manipur .

sachin Mar 14, 2017 10:04am

Poor analysis..

Human first Mar 14, 2017 10:05am

In Punjab Capt Amrinder singh was about to leave party .relationship between Rahul Gandhi and him are not very good.

kumar Mar 14, 2017 10:25am

Very poor analysis sir, the 5 state elections are based on state level electorate mood. One main factor influenced poll result is local governments anti incumbency. BJP lost hopes on Punjab long back due to strong anti incumbency for SAD and BJPs worst governance. Everyone is talking about Modi wave in UP because they won biggest state in India with bumper majority, even though there is no state level leader for BJP in UP, Modi capitalized anti incumbency and won UP paying way for smooth 2019 elections for BJP.

BALAJI VISWANATHAN Mar 14, 2017 10:47am

All governments ousted? Really? The only state that had a BJP government before the elections - Goa - has a BJP government now. And the states that didn't have a BJP government - Manipur, UP and Uttarakhand - also have a BJP government now.

Manu Mar 14, 2017 10:49am

Modi campaigned only in UP- in the most important state undergoing elections and came out completely victorious- BJP is forming the government after 15 years! You can of course chose to turn a blind eye to this. But I think your ploy of spreading hatred against Modi is not working. Even the muslim population of UP realized that Modi is the best bet. People voted for Modi irrespective of caste or religion. Also, the media has been extremely critical of Modi. His win has been despite the media aggression and not because of it.

JD Mar 14, 2017 10:55am

Sir, ur analysis is poor and far from facts and reality. In Punjab, now the SAD-BJP coalition has lost, BJP may now breath freely now it has more options. only gain for BJP from Punjab is that AAP has weakened itself & BJP now has chances of winning MCD elections. Gujarat has become distant dream for AAP. It has nothing to do with militarist policies, in fact total campaign shows that Modi was least bothered abt Punjab. In Goa, Parsekar could not hold his flock together and his voters too. Setback to BJP for a while, as it has to send back Parrikar to the state (considering his present stature, he's been demoted. They'll hv to groom other leader immediately). EVM tampering! If SP had won, then also Mayawati wud hv made this allegations. If tampering can be done in UP, it can also be done in Punjab, Manipur and Goa. Abt Rajiv Gandhi, times hv changed. it is better to giv stable govt. from start, rather enjoying drama from opposition.

D.K.PAMNANI -INDIA Mar 14, 2017 11:11am

Analysis of election is not up to the mark, BJP won thumping majority in UP and Uttrakhand. 39.7% when the polling ratio is 60.1%. In 2014 it was 65-66%.

SID Mar 14, 2017 11:20am

@Harmony-1© You are not aware of situation in Punjab. Water scarcity is a big issue & they are not ready to share water with their neighbor state ( Haryana ) . Don't make assumption that BJP lost due to water statement ? There were bigger issue like anti incumbency & drug issue which went against SAD-BJP. Every one including BJP& SAD knew they are going to lose in a big way .

BNJ Mar 14, 2017 11:20am

Flawed analysis. Not convincing at all.

AKKS Mar 14, 2017 11:26am

Poor analysis to say the least!

wellwisher Mar 14, 2017 11:27am

what are you trying to prove

Rajput Mar 14, 2017 11:29am

Population of uttar Pradesh is more than Pakistan...so it's like winning a nation...winning with such massive margin shows the trust people have in Modi..a true statesman..

ZAK THE COMEDIAN Mar 14, 2017 11:43am

Poorly researched article.

kamaljit singh Mar 14, 2017 11:54am

Poor observation.

sk Mar 14, 2017 12:00pm

As usual , a rant from JN. In Manipur, in 2012, Congress won 42/60 seats. This time is 27/60. BJP had 0/60 and this time its 21/60. Yes, congress got more seats, but I hope you can read between the black and white portions. In Punjab you say BJP and its allies.. Its actually the other way SAD and its ally BJP. BJP was the junior partner and the last 10 years SAD ruled building an anti incumbency along with corruption and drug. People gave 5 seats to Akali+ but thy got 16. But the fact is that the akali+lost fair and square. Goa - after 2 terms of bjp and movement of parrikar to center, bjp was in tatters. its a hung assembly. lets not kid ourselves that UP is the BIG fish. No one will say this but UTK , Manipur and goa.. no one really cares in the big scheme of things. lets put it this way.. no one cares if you lose champions trophy or asia cup as long as you win the world cup.

Bhupendra singh Mar 14, 2017 11:59am

Good article. But I agree with some but disagree with others. No doubt there is a Modi wave among most of Indians irrespective of urban or rural. But I agree Muslims did not vote for Modi and bjp win in muslim majotiy areas is due strong anti muslim feeling so hindu vote consolidation which resulted in non relevance of muslim voting

azad Mar 14, 2017 12:09pm

@Harmony-1© So you think the congress government will allow the flow of water to pakistan?

azad Mar 14, 2017 12:12pm

Amit shaw did not clain that BJP won in 4 out of 5. But he said BJP would form the government in 4 out of 5 with alliances.

No one Mar 14, 2017 12:14pm

Well let's talk In UP there is no way that anyone can say that this win was a Luck. This win was a massive win and thus showed that now people will not tolerate caste politics.

As in Punjab if u say that BJP lost because they did nothing, so i want you to consider this thing that BJP only fought on 23 seat against Akali's 90 so 23 seats doesn't make any difference. Goa was a mistake for BJP because they took away Manohar Parriker from there but now it is soughted out Manipur is a victory for BJP because they never got this much seats earlier this shows ppl's faith in true development rather than any baloney. So in last get ready to see PM Modi as PM in 2019

Real indian Mar 14, 2017 12:18pm

@Harmony-1© There is no bjp in panjab ok its all about akali....So bjp has nothing to do with panjab this time ...Look at manipur, bjp was nothing but now going to form govt, same in goa they formed govt there bjp has gained more than loss in this election..

guest Mar 14, 2017 12:29pm

There is only one truthful journalist left in India. Thanks to Dawn for such unbiased report on India amidst so Much Modi hype.

guest Mar 14, 2017 12:32pm

@Harmony-1© The real reason for BJP's loss there.

GS Mar 14, 2017 12:30pm

In Goa and Manipur BJP is forming government with it's aliies. It is evicted from Punjab due to family rule of Akalis, yes BJP should have restrained family rule being a minor ally.

Raj Mar 14, 2017 12:41pm

@R S Chakravarti the rulers treat everyone in same manner. Do you expect SPL treatment for Muslims?

shankar Mar 14, 2017 12:51pm

UP and the heartland India is acid test for any Indian politician and Modi has trumped all opponents. BJP vote share of around 40% is no mean achievement even when you take a three cornered contest in elections.

Skumar Mar 14, 2017 01:00pm

This is absurd ... he is comparing vote share between assembly polls and parliamentary elections

Farhan Mar 14, 2017 01:06pm

Lol @Harmony

BJP lost in Punjab cos of Akali Dal,which was the main party in Punjab! Akali lost cos they ruled Punjab for 10 years with BJP n there was a massive problem of drugs in Punjab during Akali's rule!

Chandra Shekar.K. Gowda Mar 14, 2017 01:09pm

Hippocratic, narrative analyses and good attempt to playing down victory of BJP / Modi.

REnjith Mar 14, 2017 01:19pm

The more the opposition parties play minority card (Muslim and Dalit card) BJP will get stronger and stronger. When they argue only for minorities the Majority of Hindu votes consolidating in favor of BJP.

D.K.PAMNANI -INDIA Mar 14, 2017 01:20pm

@Harmony-1©

Do not worry. in Punjab there is incumbency factor. After 5 years, it will be again AKLI + BJP. Till than, have a peace.

VINEETH Mar 14, 2017 01:27pm

It is time the left intellectuals learn that electoral battles in much of India isn't waged based on ideals, but on leaders and how they stitch together viable caste-religious arithmetic.

VINEETH Mar 14, 2017 01:29pm

There is a plausible explanation for BJP's victory in Muslim-dominated Deoband. BJP managed to consolidate the Hindu votes while the votes of Muslims got split between SP and BSP.

VINEETH Mar 14, 2017 01:31pm

@AYZA If manipulated EVMs were to blame, then SP and Congress would have been the first ones to raise alarm bells. As it stands now, only Mayawati from the BSP, who is famous for her tantrums, has made it and no one else in the opposition backed her. Moreover, if BJP manipulated EVMs in Deoband, what prevented them from doing that in states where they lost, especially Bihar? India's election commission of late has a reputation for its integrity. Nobody questions that. The time for vote manipulations are long gone here.

analyst Mar 14, 2017 01:31pm

2014 was a fight between Congress and BJP(lok sabha) 2017 was a fight between SP,BSP,BJP,Congress and other regional parties,hence the decline in vote share pc

Namo Mar 14, 2017 01:33pm

@AYZA please Get your self educated.

Pradeep Mar 14, 2017 01:34pm

@Amit No it doesn't cover it realistically. In Manipur BJP got 21 seats compared to zero earlier. In Goa it fell short of majority due to the erstwhile CM who himself lost his seat but they are able to form the government with the help of their usual allies. Let's admit it barring Punjab, congress couldn't do anything anywhere.. in fact in most probability it will be ousted from Manipur too.

TechScribe Mar 14, 2017 01:46pm

@Harmony-1© You've got your facts wrong. Modi only promised to divert the rivers from J&K to Punjab. Punjabis know it doesn't take them a state government to do that. SAD which was the senior partner in the SAD-BJP combine in Punjab lost popular support. The only reason congress won was because they had Capt.Amarinder Singh projected as the CM candidate. Come next general elections you'll see Punjabis voting en masse for Modi.

Virag Pachpore Mar 14, 2017 01:49pm

The overwhelming victory of BJP in all the four states except Punjab has devastated all the myths of vote bank politics in India. The Muslim, Dalits, OBC, high castes all and sundry voted for the BJP on the one single plank of DEVELOPMENT! DEVELOPMENT!! AND DEVELOPMENT!!! alone. Prime Minister Modi's sincere appeal was well received by the people and they believed in him and voted. The problem with the so-called progressive, secular, democratic and modern writers, thinkers and political leaders is that they just don't believe in this simple thing called public faith. That Modi and BJP have won today by their performance in the last two and a half years.

Reddy Mar 14, 2017 02:26pm

How and Why UP was won by Modi and its implications can be debated till cows come home and beyond. The hard reality is even a mega disruptive economic measure like Demonetisation, couldn't stop the die hard vegetarian duo of Modi-Shah , from making a mincemeat of veterans like Mayawati , SP and their vote banks. The timing and magnitude of victory is key and cannot be writen off easily. Unless his opposition regroups and stitches up meainingful alliances, his victory in 2019 is more or less assured.

KK Mar 14, 2017 02:27pm

I dont know what Naqvi sahab want to say. He wants to belittle the performance of Modi. Had the secular parties not forgotten silent majority hindus, perhaps congress could not have seen this day. By wooing minorities and directing state funds for minority appeasement the so called secular parties thought they will keep majority at bay.

jp Mar 14, 2017 02:37pm

increasingly our intelligentsia is getting it wrong, may be the age gap, average age our subcontinent people is around 30 years...

Vinod Mar 14, 2017 02:40pm

I live in Goa, the mood of the public was not in favour of Congress.But they had no choice as Mr.parikkar was no longer the cm , he had moved to the central ministry had he been here in Goa as cm BJP would have won by a healthy​ margin. Any way since he is back as the cm things are set​ to change.

kavita Mar 14, 2017 02:36pm

Wishing Modi away will not make him lose. The people of UP have voted and it is their choice! As for Punjab, BJP had an alliance with SAD the party that was corrupt to the core Maybe this is Modi's way of getting rid of them. Let Congress rule the state and emerge victorious in the next election, you can comment then.

True Indian Mar 14, 2017 02:51pm

@ENIGMA Please make such statements only when you have data

Indian Mar 14, 2017 02:58pm

@Harmony-1© internal politics doesn't affect foreign policies it doesn't matter who comes in Punjab policies towards pakistan is decided by central govt that is MODI .

JAyesh Mar 14, 2017 02:59pm

I feel the writer don't understand Indian electoral system. The argument of 3% less vote in UP is not right, if you consider Central and State election independently. At Central election , people tend to vote for national part which is not the only criteria in state election. So, drop down in % is understood. In Punjab- BJP is just support part of Akli. It fights for less seat and hats off to Punjab people , if the party wont perform then they will loose. Its not reflection of BJP that you see in Punjab. Goa - even though the CM lost , people has not totally rejected BJP , that can be seen in seat gap of BJP and congress. Overall , I m very happy with the way BJP is driving India forward. Better than congress anytime.

Indian Mar 14, 2017 02:56pm

More modi is criticised unnecessarily his support is going to increase

sunilkulkarni Mar 14, 2017 03:01pm

it is fact which is to be accepted that modi has become tall leader after up election. Muslims in india have realised that caste is not only criteria and they are living in secular country where sab ka saath sab ka vikaas only works. india doesnt work on caste lines when devolepment has become defining trait. muslim women and youngsters voting shows that Azamkhans days are numbered. appeasement policies of all partys except BJP has made BJP a dominanat force and will rule for another 10 years. communists have become irrelevent,aap has become nuisance ,congress has become weak under pappu. stong india will achieve peace with pakistan.

Harmony-1© Mar 14, 2017 03:08pm

@Namo - By the looks of it far better "educated" than you!

abc Mar 14, 2017 03:09pm

@AYZA if that was the case they would have won in every state by manu[plating EVM why only one state , others would not sit quote ..

MANI KANT Mar 14, 2017 03:14pm

Today voters across religion , age group and regions have voted for BJP. The muslims have been fooled by the politiacal parties just to get votes. This is the first election where the Muslims have thrown away the carrots of the diferent parties and in masses have voted for BJP. The Muslims have realised that BJP does not believe in appeasement politics but actually work for the downtrodden.

Inspite of these positive changes, if people donot wake up and remain in their deep slumber and keep of criticizing BJP, only GOD can help them.

Sana Mar 14, 2017 03:23pm

@ENIGMA sure twist numbers and feel happy our country our vote and Modi is the man !

Sana Mar 14, 2017 03:27pm

@Right brilliant analysis

Desi Dimag Mar 14, 2017 03:29pm

@Harmony-1© You will be disappointed further too.

PILLAI Mar 14, 2017 03:33pm

Out of 5 states 4 is with BJP. BJP has 3/4 majority in UP & Uttarakhand and Goa & Manipur also BJP is going to make their Government. Defence minister Mr. Parrikar will become as CM today evening. Out of 403 seats, 325 seats won by BJP with the hard work of Mr. Narendra Damodardas Modi, which is a landslide win & only because of Modi Wave and its clear that in 2019 also he will win as PM of Hindustan. US experts also predicted that BJP will win in 2019 General Electtion. WASHINGTON: Prime Minister Narendra Modi has emerged as a clear favourite for the 2019 general elections after the BJP's landslide victory in assembly elections, top US experts on India have said.

Premsan Mar 14, 2017 03:37pm

@Harmony-1© Modi had only said India will utilise our legitimate share only from 20% quota. Never mentioned to stop water.

VIVAAN SINGH Mar 14, 2017 03:42pm

To be honest i tell you how bjp win im Muslim area .. When 20/19 candidates are muslim 1 hindu( bjp) .. Then muslim vote divided into different candidates like sp and bsp and Congress all candidates are muslim vote divided ..!! That's why non muslim vote to bjp!! Thats call reverse polarization!!

KKRoberts Mar 14, 2017 03:46pm

It is not Modi wave.It was demonitization wave.

NP Mar 14, 2017 03:51pm

Hopefully, you know, that in the meantime even in Goa and Manipur BJP has been in power.

Yash Mar 14, 2017 03:55pm

@AYZA.Please face and except the fact. BJP won in U.P because of Modi and that to with a land slide victory. People from all religious believes voted for him. Fair elections in such a large scale an happen in India only.

Mrityunjay Tripathi Mar 14, 2017 03:59pm

@AYZA You're getting it wrong. It's a secret ballet. May be your friends hate Modi but this time all my educated Muslim friends and their wives voted for BJP. Off course they cannot go shouting in public about this only to invite wrath of Mullahs . Politics in India has completely changed for good. Muslims now want development

shiva Mar 14, 2017 04:02pm

Reality Modi is the best leader.

NetJOCKEY Mar 14, 2017 04:07pm

@AYZA people like you are the ones who get brain washed so quickly. Do you know that in 2014, when Modi won a historical 73 out of 80 seats in UP Lok sabha, it was a congress Govt at centre. So do you think Rahul Gandhi was helping BJP by fiddling with all EVMs ! funny, isn't it ? Also, I know many muslims who vote for BJP because they are too tired of people like Mulayam treating them as vote bank. Also, a big population of Muslim women support BJP and this number will only go up in future.

vote rigging and booth capturing are things of the past in India and it has gone past that age. It's not going back there any time soon.

Harry Mar 14, 2017 04:06pm

How they won in muslim area? Because modi talks about gender equality (and muslim women voted for him...maybe in silence). And make sure electricity is reached in 19 thousand villages in just 2 years (which congress cannot do in all these years). He opened bank account for all the poor. He provided free GAS connection to 1.8 crore people.

Yash Mar 14, 2017 04:11pm

@AMIYA DEKA . Mr. Naqui should be able to understand what Mr. Modi said about the Indus water treaty. Under the treaty India is entitled 20% and that's all he mentioned . India is not using the allocated %age at present.

John Mar 14, 2017 04:13pm

@Harmony-1© - I pity your mentality.

ANoop Mar 14, 2017 04:15pm

The authors implies that its 2 loss and 2 win for BJP but he doesnt see the number of seat difference. Does he really compare UP with Goa .

Also he says the BJP has a massive media behind them and yet does not explain why this massive media was able was not able to reach tiny place like GOA but he says the same media can easily take the whole world or big states like UP/Uttrakhand easily.

U Mar 14, 2017 04:33pm

@Ahmed well said

Krishna Mar 14, 2017 04:33pm

You are in denial that Modi is quite popular and got elected because of that.

ANIL SAHU Mar 14, 2017 04:48pm

@Harmony-1© your wisdom is 0

TechScribe Mar 14, 2017 04:50pm

@Harmony-1© Don't sit on your high horse and make judgments about others' education when your own knowledge of the ground realities in India zero

INDIAN BROTHER Mar 14, 2017 04:53pm

@AYZA Do You think electronic voting machines can be manipulated in one of the largest state in India...don't be so naive..If it is manipulated like what the SP mayawati says, then not even a single vote should be in favour of other parties...now i know you will not hesitate to call this CALCULATED MANIPULATION. Lets accept the fact and definitely Indians (Hindus and our Muslim brothers) will have a good quality of life including education, eradicating poverty and corruption. Modi Era will be the golden Era in the history of India..Period.

Raj Patel Mar 14, 2017 04:58pm

BJP wasn't dominant party in Panjab in past. Defeat was of Akalidal and BJP has to bear collateral damage nothing new. Goa and Manipur didn't have clear mandate hence anybody can claim Gov. with support of independent candidates and what is wrong Mr. Naqvi ?? Did congress not taken advantage in past being in power in center?

Devendra G Mar 14, 2017 05:04pm

@Harmony-1©

Punjab State will not allow Modi or Central Government to go back on his promise regarding Indus Water Treaty whether it is Congress Government or Akali because it is in their Election Agenda too. In fact now Modi is in fix as to whether give concessions to Pakistan or not. So expect the worse !

Sandy Mar 14, 2017 05:19pm

@AYZA if bjp had such technology, why not the other states as well?? Wouldn't it have been easier for him to do the same for the smaller states?? Think logically.

Varadraj Mar 14, 2017 05:22pm

Modi is not a wave, Tsunami

Lakshman Bhakta Mar 14, 2017 05:31pm

@AYZA Congress won consequently twice, 2004 and 2009. If there was indeed tampering, opposition would have raised this issue. The BJP or other parties did not raise the issue of EVM tampering...

harish Mar 14, 2017 05:38pm

Strange no awards returned yet..

S.R. Mar 14, 2017 05:37pm

Jawed Naqvi - why don't you accept the verdict and move on? After 4 years judge if the the governments delivered or not. Attempting to plant ideas in the minds of people will not change anything. Let people judge if the government is working for them. The losing parties will attempt in 4 years to block BJP and their allies from governing successfully. That's politics. People still expect positive results from BJP using their current personal status as baseline. If they see after 4 years their lives have not improved then ALL Indians will feel justified if BJP loses power. But you must acknowledge that the fundamental principles of BJP against corruption and caste communal ideology has been widely accepted by people.

Nirman Mar 14, 2017 05:44pm

@Harmony-1© He doesn't need state govt to do that. Center govt van do that anytime it wants without asking/telling states.

Raj Patel Mar 14, 2017 05:47pm

Author should give this stats also BJP rules 53 % of Indian population and 58 % of geographical area. So called national party Congress rules only 8 % of population.

Devendra G Mar 14, 2017 05:54pm

@AYZA " Many thanks to Mr. Naqvi for setting the record straight re Modi's questionable "wins" in traditionally Muslim areas, i.e., UP and Deoband."

So you are ' surprised ' ...do visit India and you will be' shocked ' to see the development.

And after two terms of Modi, do visit again and you will be ' seriously worried ' about doing something like India ! Good Luck !

Desi Mar 14, 2017 06:00pm

Why media are talking about UP - it's population is 229 million. Population of Punjab+ Goa

Citizen Mar 14, 2017 06:01pm

As per author only politician gained in the recent UP election is Mayavathi!! He didn't say anything about great Rahul gandhi who scored only 7/403

Masood Hussain Mar 14, 2017 06:12pm

Impressed with the analysis more than the Modi victory,

MILIND Mar 14, 2017 06:10pm

@AYZA " I have Indian Muslims university friends from both these areas and after they talked to relatives who voted in......"

In our native language there is a saying " Few Roses don't make a Garden " If you are interested just check how ' Exit Polls ' are conducted in India.

And what were the results / predictions of those conducted by 5 different agencies !

MUHAMMAD Mar 14, 2017 06:13pm

We should not be commenting or discussing this matter as it is india's internal matter. We remember modi for the Gujarat episode but what i have sensed is that he has done alot for india and ppl have faith in him which is not spreading even to muslims. If the ppl of india want him then we should not have issues with that. Our goal should be to have good relations with whoever is in the power in India as thye represent the indian ppl.

allan Mar 14, 2017 06:28pm

Naqvi analysis is totally wrong. SP and BSP were ruling UP for number of years. BJP is a new party in UP and Muslim dominated electorate have shown enough confidence and trust to gain 300+ seats of and it is a Modi wave of course. In Punjab BJP did not stand as BJP but supported Akali and people of Punjab did not want Akali. In Goa I think BJP will form a Government

siddhu Mar 14, 2017 07:17pm

in UP, BJP Victory is Huge more than expectation. and In Manipur (Smaller State in Noth East) emergence of BJP will help in stability and bringing peace. Day before the poll counting , BJP was Zero in Manipur Assembly but after counting they gain huge mandate. Congress cheated before election by crating 7 new districts.

SIMBA Mar 14, 2017 07:25pm

@PILLAI 'US experts also predicted that BJP will win in 2019 General Electtion'

the same people anticipated a landslide victory of clinton over trump!

RAKSHAS Mar 14, 2017 07:46pm

@ENIGMA little knowledge of the history of Indian politics is more dangerous than ignorance. Read about incumbency in electoral politics and you will know what true democratic voting is which I am certain you have never experienced.

indian Mar 14, 2017 07:48pm

Only word, every citizen of India wants development, better infrastructure, better governance and no non sense. When I am saying every citizen of India means Muslims also. Everyone can see tht BJP is Modi is doing good for everyone but not based on the religion. zero corruption, better governance, poor pro government, better delivery, no free bees to anyone etc. under this central government.

Uday kulkarni Mar 14, 2017 07:49pm

Please read below some of the work of Modi that caused the real wave : Mini Government, Max Governance- 46 ministers instead of 71; A new ministry for skilled development and Entrepreneurs; Foreign Investments (Japan alone signed $35 Billion- Bullet trains 260Km avg speed );India's Uranium deal with Australia - 500 tonnes of Uranium for clean power & energy; Rural electrification (3000 electrified goal to make 100% villages electrified by 2020); Top executives visiting India over investment. like,1.(Microsoft)2.( Pepsico)3.(Facebook)4.( Amazon ). Modi's " Clean India initiative (100 crores for separate Toilets for school girls); Amended Labour Law (1 day business set up); Jan Dhan Yojna (generated 6000 crores ); Pension schemes for poor enrolls 12.5 lakh, accident insurance for poor farmers enrolls 123 million, life insurance enrolls 29.2 million; Delivered One Rank One Pension to armed forces after many decades of struggle; LED bulbs prog; Subsidised cooking gas TO BPL poor....

kabuttar Mar 14, 2017 07:51pm

i dont share the view of writer on results. Indian politics is a great game of maths and ground responses on schemes of govt. drop in bjp votes in up by 3% is nt a big surprise as people in India have started differentiating between state and national politics. so, state vote may have come down. most of the seats in which bjp lead in 2014 they repeated the same in 2017. Muslim dominated areas won by bjp: reason could one of following or mixture of the following 1. for long mandal politics and minority appeasement has been the major plank for a lot of parties to go into elections, with middle class voters increasing this seem to fade moreover it makes the Hindu think that the parties only care for Muslims. 2. lot of Muslim people especially women have got jobs and the triple talaq issue. 3. Muslim votes got divided. 4. if a Muslim predominant area cant be won by bjp does it imply all Hindu majority constituencies vote for bjp????

san grover Mar 14, 2017 07:58pm

very bad and unfair analysis. You should correct your facts and make some sense. represent the real picture of the scenario. BJP is now ruling 60 percent of the population of India. This is real fact

Ram kripal yadav ( Ayodhya) Mar 14, 2017 08:10pm

@ AHMED As I know Yadav has not opposed Modi. around 60% Yadav was in support of modi. because we want devolopment in my state and we have full trust on modi.

John Mar 14, 2017 08:14pm

@Harmony-1© Modi did not tell he will stop water to Pakistan. He only said we will utilize the water legitimately belonging to India. Please get yours facts right before making comments...

John Mar 14, 2017 08:17pm

@AYZA

if EVMs are manipulated then Akali dal and BJP would have not lost the state. also bihar last year..what kind of logic you guys look for...incredibally laughable.

RIDHI Mar 14, 2017 08:24pm

Please understand... Manipur Modi won 21 from zero last time. Hi UP and Uttrakhand saw massive wins. In fact vote share in Manipur is more than that of CONgress. MGP in Goa it's previous ally, which won 3 seats. Add this to the total as it was an ally before and BJP has won 4 States. Importantly, BJP is forming it's government in all 4 States except Punjab. The author has wrongly compared voteshare of 2014 lok Sabha pols of BJP + with only BJP. Even then maintaining voteshare in assembly election vis a vis Lok Sabha is only due to PM Modi wave due to its super n strong n people oriented policies.

T Nazeer Mar 14, 2017 08:25pm

It is interesting to note the alleged "No proof" EVM (Electronic Voting Machine) fraud happened only in UP where the BJP won. The author may not like BJP or Modi. By the same logic , how the other parties won in Goa and Punjab? Is the EVM worked perfectly right. On thing we need learn from India is democracy in spite of all corruption and other similarities like PAK people in India believe in democracy and Election Commission does a good job. Modi's win in UP is simple. The caste politics Yadavas, Dalits and other rowdi raj got a beat. People voted for change like US!!!!!!

RIDHI Mar 14, 2017 08:31pm

Please be known that Modi is the best leader the world can get and we Indians r lucky that he is our PM. All of us Indians share the feeling.

ANT Mar 14, 2017 08:43pm

@P. S. Natarajan The BJP winner got 43% of the vote where hindus form 28% of the electorate. He had to have got at least 15% of the muslim vote even if every hindu voted for him. Also 11% of the electorate in Deoband is dalit.

fs Mar 14, 2017 09:03pm

@Harmony-1© "Mr Modi promised to stop river water flowing to Pakistan" Win or no-win still it is a promise. Happy Holi for you with only fare share of water to you.

Mustafa R. Mar 14, 2017 09:19pm

Bottom line, the incumbents lost.

Mustafa R. Mar 14, 2017 09:21pm

It was a referendum on Modi and he got a 39% favorable vote, let us say half of the Hindu vote.

Uday kulkarni Mar 14, 2017 09:41pm

Let me add here the AFTER EFFECTS OF REAL MODI WAVE :

1) The Stock Markets NSE & BSE jumped up in last 2 days by 500 points. 2) Rupee versus USD. Rupee up by 78p this morning and Indian Rupee is at the highest in last 18 months. Strong Rupee will be making foreign trade cheaper.

The markets and economy has reacted strongly & positively to BJP becoming strong and many bills will soon see the light of the day much faster than before like GST bill (One nation one Tax). These election results have already sent positive waves because now the opposition which was opposing these bills just for the sake of opposition will have no say in obstructing the changes in laws needed for growth of India.

MOhan Sharma Mar 14, 2017 10:23pm

for the first time.. i agree with the writer

Shalinder Mar 14, 2017 10:25pm

Agree with you for the first time. There was no Modi wave. There was a wave of realization of truth. Wave of unity against caste and religion politics. This was the doing of Modi - not just his wave but his actions. People voted for him despite demonetization. Please do remember he campaigned in UP only. No doubt, there was a factor of incumbency in all the states, but Modi just catalyzed it further from 200 seats to over 300 - clearing all the ways to Rajya Sabha majority. Not just a wave, but a planned move for Sabka Vikas, Sabke Saath. Jai Hind!

Shalinder Mar 14, 2017 10:28pm

Oh and one more thing, when Mr. Amit Shah claimed it's 4 states for BJP, he was not lying. Tomorrow is swearing in ceremony for Manipur and Goa. You should have waited for one more day to publish your article.

shisir Mar 14, 2017 10:49pm

such a lame analysis

Baba ladla Mar 14, 2017 10:50pm

Yes, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi are definitely more popular than Mayawati as per ur own logic. Why? Cos their popularity is not caste dependent like Mayawatis!

Mahesh Vyas Mar 14, 2017 11:08pm

@AYZA why he could not temper EVMs in Punjab and Goa??

Namo Mar 14, 2017 11:10pm

@Harmony-1© Get real.

Siddhartha S Mar 14, 2017 11:13pm

I am reminded of a story that used to do the rounds during the cold war era... In a two horse race involving a horse from the USA and another from the USSR, the American horse won by a length. PRAVDA commented on the race like this: The horse from the USSR came in second. The capitalist Americans' horse came in slightly ahead of the last one.

MIND CONTROL Mar 14, 2017 11:14pm

In fact, the BJP’s vote share dipped by three percentage points from its 2014 peak of 42.7pc.

OMG!!

3 percentage points??

That is 0.03%???

That is CATASTROPHIC.

Except when you consider the vote share of others.

Donald Mar 14, 2017 11:15pm

@John Harmony-1 is only good for laughs.

sushant.t Mar 14, 2017 11:49pm

@AYZA ...Do u have a choice, moreover is there a better alternative.Give up this venomous outlook...India has finally started to break the congress shackles,of religious manipulation n corruption.If India grows then Indian Muslims will grow too....and that only Modi can do!!!

Bupi Mar 15, 2017 12:10am

@sk Well said

Sana Mar 15, 2017 12:17am

@Mustafa R. once again without Muslim vote he could not have won in certain areas why is this so hard to accept for you Mustafa

Well Meaning Mar 15, 2017 12:23am

lot of words not much substance . author is right . it is not a wave . but can he change public perceptions. BJP could win so many setas in a mid term poll againstthe hugely unpopular demonetisation is what is worth a study. and who care , the fact that they can get more seats now in upper house is what iis imp for BJP

Sana Mar 15, 2017 12:26am

@MUHAMMAD You are logical and analytical and rational wish more like you in your country

sree Mar 15, 2017 02:00am

@AYZA, I wonder if any of your friends have the true freedom to ever admit what they did. All my friends in USA say they didnt vote for Trump.

Sumit Mumbai Mar 15, 2017 02:28am

@ENIGMA BJP lost in Goa coz the supporting parties didn't like the chief minister who had replaced parrikar. Case in point they supported bjp again once parrikar was made cm.

alla bux Mar 15, 2017 03:04am

Goa is back in BJP fold. After massive victory in UP, it does not matter if BJP lost a little state like Punjab. In UP, in Amethi - the strong hold of Gandhis for generations, 3 out of 4 assembly seats went to BJP and if elections are held today for Parliament, Gandhis will be wiped out. The Modi wave is real and we will ignore it at our peril.

VINOD Mar 15, 2017 05:31am

@AYZA We have complete faith in our electoral machine and since independence all election results have been gracefully accepted by the loosing parties. A few madcaps have no supporters.

Fried Chillies Mar 15, 2017 06:08am

@Feroz dude may you enjoy many years of good health. As a Hindu I want to explicitly stress that Hindus aren't scared of Muslims per se but detest the make believe leaders of the community.

Fried Chillies Mar 15, 2017 06:11am

It's demeaning to Muslims when people sit on self appointed high pedestal claiming to shepherd the opinion of 20% of 1.25 billion population. The sheer arrogance besides sheer ignorance is laughable.

Anky INDIA Mar 15, 2017 07:48am

Typical un real description.. Badals ruled punjab for 10 consecutive years, bjp is an ally in Punjab, not the ruling party. N after 10 years, antiincumbency factor is always there. In manipur, bjp had zero presence in last election. Literally they had zero seats and now they have formed govt. What else you want. Exit of parikar from Goa to center caused them some seats this time.. For the record, Congress is ruling areas which constitute 8 % of Indian population..

SID Mar 15, 2017 09:09am

@Mustafa R. In multi party democracy system , 35% is enough to give a party majority . Look how many % of vote PML-N got in last election.

Zak Mar 15, 2017 09:49am

@Kittu unless the truth is out. Why would Minorities who are abused by a party, vote for them? Something fishy.

Zak Mar 15, 2017 09:51am

@AYZA well analyses.

Andy L Mar 15, 2017 09:52am

@Gary Well said.

Zak Mar 15, 2017 09:53am

@Gary . ....Also Goa and Manipur , BJP forming a government, get your facts right.

'Forming government', which means they did not win. So the writer got his facts right. Accept reality, not false perceptions.

AHA Mar 15, 2017 10:15am

It doesn't matter if Modi wave or Modi,,,,BJP will capture more areas. We want to get rid of 70 year pain congress

virendra tewari Mar 15, 2017 10:24am

The author looks to be prejudiced to Modi. You can not compare UP with other states. UP has got a population of about 22 crore , more than many countries including Pakistan. UP has given most of the Prime Ministers to India including Modi. Goa , Manipur are also states but they are not so significant politically compared to Up.

krish Mar 15, 2017 10:29am

Have you considered the fact that the bottom 95% non-elite muslims have come of their own.The muslim elite live off the state and the bottom 95% based on fear mongering.The muslim elite had this wonderful relationship with the psuedo-secular parties like Cong, SP, BSP etc. where they had to do nothing but to influence the other muslims to vote for these parties and get the protection monies. Now its quite clear that the hindus and its supposedly worst avatar the BJP govt. does really no harm to them so they have stopped paying the protection money to muslime-elite/political parties. Take the recent case of triple-talaq, it is BJP who is fighting for the rights of muslim women and who gets affected most by it ? Its the half of the other 95% of muslim women who get ruined by the 5-10% elite muslim men who run around giving these talaqs. And no surprises the muslim elite are against the change and so are the secular parties. So surprise that BJP got the vote of the muslims majority.

nav Mar 15, 2017 10:41am

Modi's BJP has formed government in 4 states out of 5 states where election happened. What more you want Modi to prove? Specially UP, which determines which party will have next PM is won by Modi's party..

Leo Mar 15, 2017 11:06am

World will soon see what street and lung power can do. We all love to be armchair hunters and suppport parties that can help maintain status quo for the elite .

Princely Mar 15, 2017 12:28pm

One clear take away from these elections. Caste no longer appeals to the voters. Voters want development. We may discuss for ages whether there is real development is there or not. But the other angle is 'THE VOTER is looking at development as a major issue' . And gladly for India and to some extent for MODI also, Even muslim voters are thinking on the same lines. Who won in which state is pure rubbish. What we must understand in this is the changed mindset of the people. 1. Supporting Development (Real or perceived). 2. Muslims are no longer afraid to vote MODI.

Princely Mar 15, 2017 12:46pm

the ordinary voter in UP wanted electricity for her work and home, education for her children, health care for her family and safety on the streets. These were minimum expectations that were promised for the last 70 years but never fulfilled. A Hindu and a Muslim worker in a carpet factory were equally affected when their unit did not have electricity and water, and both were beaten up by goons, who are again Hindus and Muslims on salary day. While all other political parties saw the caste and religion of voters, Modi approached them as individuals with aspiration and a yearning for a corruption-free fearless atmosphere to work in.

Lax Mar 15, 2017 12:56pm

What are you trying to say ?. Modi is gonna be here for sometime.... accept it...

hawkish dove Mar 15, 2017 02:31pm

The writer is correct in his facts and interpretation in most aspects. Indeed Rajiv Gandhi had set the precedent of not claiming power if the incumbent did not get a majority. However, it is his own party which flouted this norm in 2005 while setting up the government of Jharkhand (which was eventually kicked out). The writer has also carefully forgot to mention the fact that BJP went on to become the 2nd largest party in Manipur, from 0 to 21! BJP has formed government in Goa and Manipur, so Mr. Shah was not LYING to the people. When one refers to Modi wave he/she probably means that Mr. Modi's popularity hasn't ebbed one bit since general elections 2014. To almost sustain (vote share loss of 3%) is also an herculean task. Yeh janta hai, yeh sab jaanti hai..

Nelson Mar 15, 2017 04:03pm

2019 congress party election campaign jingle.

" Give me some sunshine.

"Give me some rain.

" Give us another chance mother India.

" TO LOOT YOU ONCE AGAIN.

Sunil Varma Mar 15, 2017 04:44pm

@Harmony-1© Pakistan people should understand India politics. In Punjab the Akali Sikhs were in power for the lat 10 years and BJP a very minor ally. They carried a baggage of anti-incumbency of 10 years and were defeated. Mr Modi and BJP did not camping in Punjab as all the force was diverted to UP where 403 seats were up for grabs. Any one who rules UP , rules India , therefor these 312 seats that BJP has bagged in UP will give them tremendous muscle in the Upper House ( Rajya Sabha ) to push through the reforms.

....By the the rives of Punjab and Indus water Treaty is Federal subject, and the Congress Govt in Punjab has no say at all.

Sunil Varma Mar 15, 2017 05:04pm

@Amit ....Well written article with convincing analysis. Didn't realize that people drove away the current government from all the states until I read this.

Wrong understanding my friend...the BJP now rules three fourths of India ...from north to south , east to west of India....all the large states of Jammu & Kashmir , Haryana, Gujarat , Maharastra , Madya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh , Utra Khand , Mani Pur , Assam, Utranchal, Haryana, Goa are BJP ruled today and they are well poised to defeat the Congress in Karnataka in the south in the next 10 months. The goal of the BJP is " Congrerss mukt Bharat " and they are soon getting there.

An Indian Mar 15, 2017 05:08pm

Two things that are factually incorrect here... First - BJP is forming the Govt. in Goa. The Cong. took their own sweet time in in-fighting by which time the BJP sewed up all the rest and showed majority. So it actually is going to form the Govt. in four out of six states that went to election. Your Mr. Nakhvi just doesn't do his homework right.

Second - in UP, Modi won in almost ALL the Muslim Majority constituencies - in some cases by 70-80% majority. It is impossible for the BJP to have manipulated votes everywhere (The Indian EC is militantly independent of ANY party - which is why we have a functioning democracy). Mayavati complained to the Election commission alleging vote manipulation. The EC shot her down.

Bottom line, The BJP now has a very good chance at the 2019 elections. Expect the BJP to be around for a while.

Sunil Varma Mar 15, 2017 05:25pm

@sk very well put :)

Li-En-Ja Mar 15, 2017 05:39pm

If you have made your mind not to accept the facts you can find thousands reasons. However the realty is infront of us, to accept or not is individual choice. The most ridiculous is "for example, that Punjab and Goa were mandates against Defence Minister Parrikar’s and Modi’s militarist policies with neighbours". You should know this was provincial election and not national election and local issues matters most than foreign policy issues. In Punjab BJP was only a Partner of SAD and not the main ruling party. Infact this defeat in Punjab has given a reason to BJP to create its own space larger than SAD and claim bigger role in National election like how it did in Maharashtra side lining Shiv Sena. You must appreciate in Manipur BJP fielded for the first time and formed the Govt. In a democracy it is not necessary that the largest party to form govt. rather party having majority forms the Govt. Rajiv Gandhi had decided to stay in opposition because he could not able to manage support

Naren Mar 15, 2017 05:49pm

Well if it's of any relevance to you BJP has won 325 seats with it's allies in UP ,Goa and Manipur are now with BJP too so os Uttarkhand . So yes , it's BJP all over India barring the southern states. The previous national and regional parties have always played the cast and minority card. This time they have given a different verdict. I sincerely hope that they work for the benefits for the common men. If not, as it happens in any democracy ,they will be shown the door. Having said that, this is a New India, unemployment, women's security and building up of the nation comes first. No cast, religion or any other factor will play any role. If someone still wants to live in 18th century, they can live at their own risk.

SID Mar 15, 2017 05:48pm

@Zak As per indian constitution , which alliance has majority number will lead to form Govt . If no majority , then President rule comes to effect. BJP led alliance had the majority number.

ahmad Mar 15, 2017 06:14pm

@AYZA just rubbish

JIgnesh Mar 15, 2017 07:02pm

If there was no Modi or BJP wave, Congress would have scored simple majority in Goa. This is first time that BJP is getting any seats in Manipur and that too 21 on its own with highest vote share in state. Its unprecedented and Congress is worried more with this situation. Anyways, BJP is forming govt in both Manipur and Goa, that itself shows BJP wave In Punjab, BJP was not a force (Its unfortunate that after 15 yrs of alliance, BJP is unable to make mark in Punjab). It was Akalis who lost, not BJP. But since BJP was part of that coalition, writer is taking up name of BJP to paint Punjab loss as the loss of BJP. Had Akali + BJP won in Punjab, I am sure writer would have given full credit to Akali only. No need to write anything about Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand because numbers speak for BJP wave

aga Khan Mar 15, 2017 07:55pm

@Feroz; Very well articulated. Thanks

Exact Mar 15, 2017 08:17pm

@ENIGMA don't try to divide

MS Mar 15, 2017 09:15pm

There is no defeat for BJP except a little slide in Goa, that too because of Parikar moving out of Goa. Parikar is an honest and capable person who had a larger role to play at national level. Punjab was never a BJP dominated state, absolutely no loss for BJP there. Manipur and UP is a big gain.

MEDUSA Mar 15, 2017 11:43pm

Excellent analysis Mr. Naqwi and so true!

@ AYZA- SPOT ON!

open your eyes Mar 15, 2017 11:56pm

poorest analysis

M D Bhasin Mar 16, 2017 12:05am

BJP is not the old BJP. Now it is 'the' Modi. To displace the Modi you need another Modi or a very strong and disciplined organisation (political party). It is not possible in the near future, at least not before 2019. And in the mean time, if he starts giving the results as he promises, why would people think of replacing him at all.

Nayak Mar 16, 2017 12:43am

Modi is loved with passion in India for his love for India. It is simple. if you keep comparing him to BJP/Hindutva/Rajiv Gandhi/VHP/Hindhu National Party, you will never understand it. Millions are loving him, not just supporting him.

AHMED Mar 16, 2017 03:27am

@Harmony-1© True and Happy Holi!

@hem pant True. Heavy majority of Muslims voted for BJP, you can't even think about winning with this much thumping majority without having the Muslim vote. .

Akil Akhtar Mar 16, 2017 04:42am

How is it being hailed as success when BJP lost two states as well...

R.K.Dubey Mar 16, 2017 08:34am

As far as the elections in the 5 states is concerned ,BJP won and formed government in 4 states. In Punjab BJP in not the main contestant ,it is the Akalidal the main contestant.

Sham Mar 16, 2017 10:24am

@Harmony-1© Looking Indian election throw narrow Pakistani narrative, laughable analysis.

Ahmed Ali Khan Mar 16, 2017 12:35pm

@Ayza, cannot agree more with you, I have exactly similar impression. Anyway, Great article - fresh perspective, informative and as usual, brilliantly written. Thanks Jawed Naqwi. We need more writers and analysts like you.

TechScribe Mar 16, 2017 12:37pm

@ENIGMA As we are talking Manohar Parikkar is forming a government in Goa. The results were fractured in Goa as they didn't project Parikkar as the CM before elections. Even in Manipur, no one expected BJP to muster enough numbers to form the government. India is a very diverse country and it will take a while for BJP to make inroads into many states. So far it has swept the north and made inroads into north which by themselves are significant achievements. In the next five years you'll see BJP in most states, including the southern states. In the next general elections there is no alternative to Modi. He'll come back more powerful.

TechScribe Mar 16, 2017 12:43pm

@Feroz Super analysis. I agree with you.

gary Mar 16, 2017 01:27pm

@truth Pappu will not leave the power and he will take his party to the gutter. He alone will ensure BJP stays till 2024 and beyond.

Nabarun Dey Mar 16, 2017 01:39pm

Only 12 more states to go !

ap Mar 16, 2017 07:17pm

some pak friends still think media helps Modi... Media in India is still congress legacy and they will NEVER acknowledge Modi, so supporting him is just out of question. the riots that happened (triggered by Congress - Congress ran with the sheep and hunted with the wolves) when he was 2 months into office are just an excuse to hate him because he challenges Congress.

dawn pls publish.

Narayan Mar 16, 2017 09:16pm

@AYZA So you will accept that the Congress won in Punjab by the same manipulation? What is good for the goose has to be good for the Gander!