ELECTIONS used to be fairly straightforward affairs, with clear winners and losers, credible victory margins, and dignified albeit weepy speeches by those swept out of the race.

No longer. The days of clear-cut poll results are over. In a complicated, polarised, and very unequal world where the old clash with the new, some yearn for progress while others dream of the past, victors win with slim margins and losers are loath to admit defeat.

This is true in Afghanistan. It is also true in Indonesia, the world’s third largest democracy and the largest Muslim majority nation where both candidates in recent presidential elections are claiming victory.

Both Jakarta Governor Joko Widodo, 53 and Suharto-era general Prabowo Subianto, 62 say they have the support of the majority of Indonesia’s 140 million voters. The official results of the vote will only be declared on July 22.

For those looking in, Indonesia’s political landscape certainly looks confused and messy. Look behind the chaos, however, and it is clear: after years of authoritarian rule, Indonesia is a strong, vibrant and resilient democracy.

Imagine this: more than 187 million Indonesians were registered to vote at more than 450,000 polling stations on more than 7,000 islands across the vast archipelago.

Look even deeper and there is little doubt that Joko Widodo — better known as Jokowi — has won the presidential polls. If the formal vote counting and tabulation process concludes without massive fraud, he will be sworn in as the country’s new president on 20 October of this year.

Quick counts carried out by Indonesia’s credible survey institutions indicate that Jokowi has won 52pc of votes compared to 48pc won by Prabowo.

The contrast between the two men could not be starker. Jokowi is a modest man of the people, low-key but charismatic, tolerant and modern. Readers of this column may remember that I wrote about Jokowi when he burst on to the Indonesian political scene almost two years ago after being elected governor of Jakarta.

His opponent, Prabowo, represents old-style Indonesia of privileged politicians. Jokowi initially had a commanding lead over Prabowo but his popularity took a dip after a nasty smear campaign in which he was falsely said to be both Christian and ethnic Chinese. Both candidates are in fact Muslim and ethnic Javanese.

How Indonesia resolves the dispute — and how the two candidates and their supporters respond to the decision matters to a closely watching world.

Indonesia is an important player in Southeast Asia. Beyond that, Indonesia’s political choice will have an equally strong impact on the wider Asian region and also on Europe and the United States. Most importantly, the way Indonesians conduct themselves will resonate across the Muslim world.

Indonesia offers a successful alternative model for Islamic societies, especially Egypt and other troubled Arab nations. As a Muslim majority country which is also a robust and vibrant democracy Indonesia is quite exceptional in a Muslim world dominated by monarchies, dictatorships and uncertain, vulnerable democracies.

Indonesia’s experience in transiting from years of authoritarianism to democracy stands as an inspiration at a time when countries like Egypt are back peddling on meeting popular aspirations for change and political reform, war looms between Israel and the Palestinians and Iraq and Syria descend into chaos.

Egypt’s failed democratic transition is proof that democracy needs visionary, thoughtful and cool-headed leaders, careful nurturing and can never be taken for granted.

The choice Indonesians faced in the closely fought elections was between Prabowo, a man who harks back to a past era, talks tough at a time when the world is looking for Indonesian “soft power” to tackle 21st century challenges and Jokowi, a young and dynamic politician who stands for a new and progressive Indonesia, ready to take its place as a global power.

Indonesia over the last decade and more has witnessed a massive transformation of its economy, with analysts now predicting that by 2030, the country will have an economy larger than either Germany or the United Kingdom.

Whoever takes over the reins of power will have to tackle a long list of challenges, including a slowing economy, over-reliance on commodity exports, infrastructure bottlenecks and corruption. Keeping Indonesia open for business and avoiding the dreaded “middle income trap” will be other important priorities. The next president will also need to confront the problem of religious extremism which threatens a country known for its tolerance and moderation.

The world needs an inspirational, forward-looking Indonesia which stands proudly for pluralism, human rights, civil society and reform in a world where these values are in short supply. Friends of Indonesia are hoping they can continue to engage with a country which can fulfil its role as a modern and promising 21st century power.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels.

Published in Dawn, July 12th, 2014