MY friends are betting on whether the general election scheduled for Feb 2 will actually take place. As of yesterday the odds stood at 50:50.

That speaks volumes about the state of political affairs in this country. Nobody is quite sure about anything anymore. Unlike previous polls, many candidates who have successfully registered for the election have yet to put up their campaign posters in the provinces.

Candidacy registration has been far from smooth, especially in at least eight provinces in the south where protesters have blocked the process. Election Commission officials in some of those troubled constituencies have quit en masse, citing their inability to perform the task up to normal standards.

Somchai Srisuthiyakorn, one of the five Election Commissioners, has publicly stated that this is the “most difficult” election ever held in the political history of the country. He and EC chairman Supachai Somcharoen have urged the government to consider postponing the polling in the face of possible violence and unrest if the caretaker administration insists in going ahead with the snap election.

Premier Yingluck Shinawatra has so far refused to yield to the two main demands of the anti-government People’s Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) led by Suthep Thaugsuban: That she quit and that the upcoming election be postponed. She has also said she is open to negotiations.

The EC’s Somchai has gone out of his way to try to strike a deal between the two opposing groups, but so far to no avail. Both sides have refused to meet face to face, although an EC “broker” has met separately with the rivals.

EC chairman Supachai has made no secret of his concern at the government’s insistence on its stand. He said violence might break out and the caretaker government would be conducting its business in a restless manner.

Also, there is a high risk that the election will not produce the minimum requirement of 95 per cent of the total number of MPs nationwide. In that case, the whole process could be declared null and void. Supachai estimated that up to 26 constituencies might not be able to complete registration.

Meanwhile, the government has claimed that the election date has been stipulated by Royal Decree as Feb 2, so can’t be changed. But the EC, which is constitutionally tasked with the job of organising the election, has taken a different stand: Yes, the ballot-casting can be legally moved to a later date, and the government has been informed of the EC’s position on this issue.

Pheu Thai Party leader Charupong Ruangsuwan has gone one step further by publicly suggesting that the EC might have conspired with the Democrat Party, which has boycotted the election, and the PDRC to sabotage the election.

That obviously has pitted the country’s election organiser against the ruling party and the caretaker government 3 a new stand-off that adds further confusion to the already chaotic situation.

Whether it was a slip of the tongue or not, Army chief General Prayuth Chan-ocha has added fuel to the fire by refusing to rule out the possibility of a coup if things get out of hand.

Despite the posturing from all sides, it would be stating the obvious to say that the election won’t be a smooth one.

—The Nation/Asia News Network