Faris Islam asks if future nights in Baghdad will be punctuated with fireworks or more fighting?

When explosions were heard across Baghdad on Monday night, the Iraqi people knew that this time, the explosions were a cause for celebration, not fear. The explosions — fireworks and firecrackers — heralded what Prime Minister Nour al Maliki decreed as ‘National Sovereignty Day’ and the handing over of security in Iraqi cities from US troops to Iraqi forces. From June 30th, US troops withdrew from cities through out Iraq, abandoning their forward operating posts for bases in the countryside. As US troops moved out, the Iraqi’s moved in, with the new, US-trained Iraqi security forces taking over control of the cities. Though US troops will remain in the country until 2011, and US trainers continue working with Iraqi troops in the cities, ‘National Sovereignty Day’ is a key landmark in the history of post-invasion Iraq.

The withdrawal has left many full of anxieties, even as Iraqi forces parade and party  on the streets it is now their responsibility to protect. As an article  on Tuesday summarised, ‘Shias fear more bombings by Sunni militants; Sunnis fear that the Shia-dominated security forces will give them little protection’. Despite security concerns, as the BBC’s Jim Muir reports from Baghdad , ‘even the checkpoints were garlanded with flowers and flags, and many had music blaring.’

Hours after the handover however, disaster struck one of Iraq’s major cities, as 27 people were killed when a car bombing ripped through a food market in Kirkuk . The bombing was not an isolated incident, as the days leading up to the withdrawal of US troops were punctuated with deadly attacks almost daily throughout the country, bringing the death toll from violence in June to 155 Iraqis.

The stakes ahead for the Iraqis — and the Americans — are enormous, as they move one giant step closer to the end game, that is, the removal of all US troops in Iraq. The slow draw down of US troops from Iraq over the next two years could hold enormous opportunities both for the US and Iraq, as well as for the Middle East and much of the world.

For the US public, despite the 130,000 troops still stationed in Iraq, Dan Balz argues in the Washington Post , the move has barely been noticed, as an Iraq-weary public deals with the death of Michael Jackson as well as reforms in their economy and healthcare. For Obama however, the event is crucial and needs to go smoothly, ‘given the fullness of his foreign policy agenda’. Needing more troops for Afghanistan, to pacify a strong anti-war lobby and to build goodwill throughout the Middle East, scaling back the US presence in Iraq — or at least the visibility of those troops — will be enormously helpful.

Throughout the Middle East, the shift of troops away from the more visible roles on the streets of the city to bases and training outposts in rural areas will have a symbolic affect on perceptions of the US. Adding to the Obama charm offensive  witnessed a few months ago in Cairo, ‘National Sovereignty Day’ is another visible step to reduce the view of the ‘Imperialist American’.

While the potential and possibilities are enormous, the path Iraq will follow is still fraught with difficulties and unanswered questions. Are Iraqi security forces trained enough to handle the expected upsurge in violence? Will sectarianism be put aside and a strong, democratic Iraq emerge? Will the sight of Iraqis dancing in the streets, voting in elections and treating their minorities with respect erase the images of anti-war protests, Abu Ghraib stress positions and terror attacks across the country?

It’s upon these questions that the legacy of Iraq and the future of the Iraqi people will be decided years from now, and on the answers to these questions that future nights in Baghdad will be punctuated with either fireworks or fighting.