FOR a number of years now, an interesting thesis has suggested that there is a phenomenon known as the ‘Karakoram anomaly’. In a nutshell, the thesis suggests that where glaciers in the eastern Himalayan range, in Nepal and Tibet, are known to be retreating due to the impact of climate change, in the western reaches of the range and the Karakoram there is evidence that many of them are in fact surging. Very little scientific measurements have been made with regard to the glaciers of Pakistan’s northern areas, comprising three of the world’s largest mountain ranges — the Himalayas, the Karakoram and the Hindu Kush. The result is that we are left to conjecture about the actual impact and dynamics of global warming in this region. From some preliminary observations made by one glaciologist by the name of Ken Hewitt, we understand that these ranges may be going through a process of change that is different from what is happening to their counterparts in the eastern Himalayas.

This is an oddity of staggering proportions, considering that the glaciers and snowfall of the northern areas are almost entirely the source of our water supply that powers the turbines in our dams and irrigates our land. Without the water that flows in such abundance from these mighty ranges every year, Pakistan would be an arid desert. With so much at stake, and with such an interesting thesis as the Karakoram anomaly floating around, one would think that far more attention would be paid to the dynamics of global warming in the western Himalayas than is presently the case. But as it turns out, we remain woefully blind to what may be in store for us in the coming decades as the pace of global warming picks up.

A small group of dedicated individuals is making some effort to change that. Under the Pakistan Integrated Mountain Conservancy Programme, they have just finished the first winter trek of two of the longest glaciers in the range, in an attempt to gather data that would enable us to know how the glaciers are being impacted by global warming. Their efforts are welcome, but some key inadequacies remain. For one, their data gathering for the moment is restricted to photographs and GPS coordinates of selected points. For another, their research is on the Braldu glacier, and a small set of glaciers around the Shimshal area. The thesis of the Karakoram anomaly, however, rests in large part on observations of the Panmah glacier and its tributaries. The efforts of these dedicated individuals are to be applauded, but far more is going to be required before we can begin to say that the Karakoram anomaly exists, and whether or not it is representative of what is happening in the rest of the range at elevations above 3,000m. For that, the state needs to take the task more seriously.

Published in Dawn, February 28th, 2017