THE news has been swiftly and emphatically denied, but in the past too there have been denials after the news was broken. In all likelihood, the Afghan government and the Afghan Taliban have, indeed, met for tentative early talks in Qatar over the past month — a revelation that introduces a positive element into the relentlessly negative news from Afghanistan in recent months. While the Taliban do appear to be committed to waging war on the battlefield and incrementally expanding their zones of influence and areas of control across Afghanistan, the very notion that senior Taliban leaders are willing to meet Afghan government officials suggests that there is an understanding that total victory on the battlefield remains an unlikely possibility for the Taliban. That notion has been reinforced by the US and Nato commitments to not only finance the Afghan security forces until at least 2020, but for American troops to once again help fight the Taliban. With the National Unity Government also not unravelling, despite the clear and continuing strains, the possibility of state collapse in Afghanistan is low. And while there should be no illusions about the Taliban’s capacity and willingness to wage an endless war, there is the reality that a war that cannot be decisively won opens the door to a negotiated, political settlement.

For Pakistan, the latest revelations offer both an opportunity and the possibility of further complications. According to news reports, Pakistan has not played a role in the recent contacts between the Afghan government and the Taliban, allegedly because both sides are wary of Pakistani involvement. That is not necessarily a problem for Pakistan: an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process has been the mantra of all stakeholders, internal and external, for a while and if a process can be kick-started without direct Pakistani assistance or involvement, that could be interpreted as a positive development. At the very least, Pakistan should not try and disrupt contacts between the warring Afghan sides — much of the blame that is heaped on it, including in the latest news reports, is linked to the belief that Pakistan prefers a negotiating process that gives it a prominent say in what is decided. Indeed, Pakistan should consider doing the opposite: encouraging whatever political contacts the warring Afghan sides want to have and discouraging cross-border militancy. A peaceful and stable Afghanistan is in Pakistan’s interests, but the peace and stability must be forged by the Afghans themselves.

Published in Dawn, October 20th, 2016