FOR many years now, alarm bells had been ringing that water scarcity in the country was reaching a point where catastrophic consequences were imminent. It appears that the moment we were being warned about has more or less arrived. A new study by the Food and Agriculture Organisation looks at the impact that growing water scarcity in Sindh, as a result of the two-year drought from 2013 to 2015, has had on the province; it has given out truly disturbing numbers to substantiate its observations. More than 1.1 million people “fell below emergency-level thresholds” for survival as a result of this scarcity, and almost 75pc of people living in rain-fed areas “lacked the resources to cover basic survival and livelihood protection needs”. Not only that, the report finds “large reductions in yields and abandonment of cultivation altogether in the most drought-affected zones”, as well as widespread destruction of livestock — in some cases over 50pc of the herd died as a direct consequence of the drought.

These are staggering numbers. It seems we are no longer headed for an ecological calamity, but have entered one. If the levels of water stress continue to increase, matters will worsen and the consequences could be even more disastrous. Droughts are a part of nature, and in our part of the world, they have a cyclical quality to them. But in this case, the variation in rainfall that lay behind the drought appears to be linked to changing climatic patterns. Even though the study does not specifically flesh out the climate-change link, the report’s authors do acknowledge that there is one — a realisation that once again underscores the alarm that the impact of climate change on Pakistan does not lie in the distant future but is happening right now, and goes far beyond monsoon flooding.

The study itself was done on the request of the Provincial Disaster Management Authority of Sindh, which indicates that the authorities are aware of the impact of the drought and searching for ways to mitigate its effects. Now that the findings are before us, they must be taken up by the new chief minister, who should not only request an immediate briefing, but also demand an action plan going forward. The fact that such a study has been done at the behest of a department of a provincial government shows there is some political responsiveness to the important ecological ravages of climate change. The higher authorities now need to step up their efforts on an urgent basis and put together a coordinated response to mitigate the impact of the drought, as well as develop systems to build greater resilience. None of this is academic or wishing for the impossible. Given the will in the right quarters, we can surely mitigate the impact of climate change on livelihoods and ecology.

Published in Dawn, August 28th, 2016