IT’S been 20 years since the publication of Carl T Rowan’s book, The Coming Race War in America: A Wake Up Call. It was in 1996 Rowan wrote that “we were immersed in a presidential campaign in which passions over race were at the forefront — and in unique and curious ways.

“[Republican presidential contender] Pat Buchanan proposed saying, ‘No way Jose,’ and building a wall to keep Mexicans out,” Rowan wrote.

Back then, Republican convention delegates were offended by such notions. It was just one of several reasons they chose Bob Dole, a senator from Kansas, over Buchanan. Twenty years later, however, we have seen Donald Trump become the Republican presidential nominee by making even more racially divisive statements than Buchanan’s.

To Rowan, a journalist and former US diplomat who died in 2000, signs of racial trouble could be found in the growth of white militia groups and in police departments that “reek with corruption, including condoned lawlessness by some policemen”.

His book was panned, however, for not making “the sound arguments his incendiary thesis demands”, as Jim Sleeper put it in a review of the book for The Washington Post. “He gives us islands of coherence in roiling seas of emotion,” Sleeper wrote. “He rigs together some of his own columns, old news items, and wild digressions.”

All of which was true.

But it was also the case that Rowan was not a man to make such a forecast lightly, as Sleeper understood. Rowan, an African-American, was a nationally syndicated columnist for the Chicago Sun-Times. He had also been a diplomat during the Kennedy administration and a member of the National Security Council during the Johnson administration.

A resident of the District of Columbia, Rowan founded a scholarship program for DC-area students, called Project Excellence, and each year hosted a fundraising dinner that drew a racially and economically diverse crowd. It was as hopeful and optimistic an event as you’d find.

He was, as Sleeper noted, “an honest, if sometimes windy, voice for older, stolid, black working- and middle-class folk who owe much of their modest security to liberal initiatives, and to whom this country’s social fabric owes even more in return. If something has snapped in Rowan, one is tempted to pay heed.”

Few did.

Now here we are — with race relations in the United States widely regarded as being the worst in recent memory.

Earlier this month, the Southern Poverty Law Center, which monitors hate groups, noted an increase in chatter among such groups about starting a race war after a sniper killed five law enforcement officers and wounded seven others in Dallas on July 7.

“While anti-government extremist organisations like the Oath Keepers targeted the Black Lives Matter Movement and announced solidarity with law enforcement officers, especially those who make up its ranks, the most extreme response came from the racist right — from neo-Confederates to National Socialists,” wrote Ryan Lenz, editor of the SPLC’s HateWatch blog.

Still, for many, the very notion of a ‘race war’ is nonsensical, inconceivable. Then again, many of the recent fatal encounters between black men and police had been unimaginable — until they happened.

It may not even be that racial hatred is getting worse — I happen to think not. But technological advances in firearms and the ease with which messages can spread via social media have magnified the impact of our anger and resentments.

“White male paranoia has become epidemic,” Rowan wrote 20 years ago. He chided white politicians, Republicans in particular, for playing the race card. “They bring the race war closer, but either don’t know it or don’t care,” he wrote.

Trump has questioned the president’s birthplace, called Mexican immigrants rapists and criminals, and said he would ban Muslims from entering the country.

Rowan had also warned that members of extremist groups might try to start a race war by attacking black people.

“Many privileged blacks do not yet see how easily armed bands of white supremacists can attack black institutions and assassinate black leaders and thus goad blacks into responses of unprecedented fury,” Rowan wrote.

In June 2015, a 22-year-old self-described white supremacist joined a Bible study class at the Emanuel African Methodist Episcopal Church in Charleston, South Carolina, and proceeded to fatally shoot nine black worshipers.

Rowan had been right about how easily such an attack could happen, but in this instance he was wrong about how black people would respond. Instead of being goaded into fury, members of some of the victims’ families showed forgiveness.

We’ve also seen numerous protests over the killing and mistreatment of black people by law enforcement. Most have been peaceful, but not all.

So what might Rowan’s premonitions look like 20 years from now, and will anyone have listened?

—By arrangement with The Washington Post

Published in Dawn, July 28th, 2016