Retailers used multiple promotional gimmicks to turn the pre-Eid shopping frenzy into a multi-billion rupees business bonanza. The projected outcome was sales of a whooping Rs900bn this year.

The cash gift vouchers introduced by popular brands this year were in addition to sale deals and special offer schemes on and off line shopping.

At the lower end Chinese goods ruled but at the high end the local designers and brands dominated the market. The middle segment was mixed with a noticeable presence of varieties from Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand beside China in children wear, alongside local brands.

The sale of mobile phones and car accessories also emerged as hot items claiming consumers’ special attention

In artificial jewellery market, imports from India claimed a major share across the board. In men’s fabrics local varieties competed with Chinese; and so was the case in shoes.

In toiletries, the higher end was shared between local and global brands, but Chinese products had a walkover at the lower end, as not one could beat them in a price war in this segment.

Beside personal products the sale of mobile phones and car accessories also emerged as hot items claiming consumers’ special attention.

A harsh heat wave in the first half, and monsoon rains in the second half of Ramazan, did affect business for brief spells. The killing of a popular singer in Karachi, while depressing, could not take away the lure of the biggest Muslim festival, one that Pakistanis find irresistible as it provides a rare exception to enjoying worldly goods.

“If security alerts fail to dissuade people from visiting shopping malls, bazaars and sub-bazaars what else would?” asked an economist. “It is up to experts to explain the compulsive shopping behaviour despite the risks; but the rush in markets suggests that the people of the country like to celebrate Eid to the best of their capacity”, commented Dr Dur-e-Nayab, an economist at the Planning Commission.

In the absence of trackable sales numbers the size of the Eid economy is projected on a combination of family Eid budget estimates and some indicative statistics shared with Dawn by the relevant officials in Karachi and Islamabad. State Bank sources confirmed that the flow of remittances in Ramazan is double the monthly average. This year it was tipped to reach about $2.4bn (Rs250bn). According to sources in the open currency market the inflow of remittances through sub-legal channels (Havala/Hundi) is not less than $1bn (about Rs100bn).

Pre-Eid cash withdrawals are massive, executives of multiple private banks confirmed. They, however, declined to share the actual amount taken out from bank deposits. The State Bank estimates it in the vicinity of Rs225bn in 2016 compared to Rs200bn in 2015.

Another indicator is the demand for new currency notes which has persistently been rising; along with its supply. Altercation between customers and staff at bank branches over availability of fresh notes, a common sight, indicates the demand supply gap. In the open market new notes are available in abundance at a premium.

People use fresh notes for Eidi (cash gift) at the religious festival. Abid Qamar, SBP spokesperson told Dawn that the supply this year was higher than last year. In 2015 the SBP reported induction of Rs141bn new currency notes before Eid. Abid boasted of the success of SMS service introduced to ensure direct delivery of notes to public through 500 E-branches in 116 cities of the country during Ramazan. “According to data pooled in till last week Rs19bn were distributed through the scheme”, he said over the phone.

“Eidi constitutes about five per cent of the Eid budget of a family. If even half of SBP fresh notes Rs75bn are assumed to be used for Eidi, a reverse calculation would throw up a total countrywide collective private Eid budget over a trillion rupees”, commented an analyst.

About 30m seven-member Pakistani families spend on an average as much as Rs29,000 each. This amount, eyeing the Rs14,000 minimum wage or the current official estimates of a 29pc poverty level, appears unrealistically high.

“The high per head spending can be perfectly credible. The income and wealth disparity has increased dramatically over the past three decades in Pakistan. There is a class that has developed a taste for luxuries. For them Eid shopping lists don’t stop at designer dresses, shoes, bags or jewellery. Their pocket and lifestyle permits them to extend it to the latest mobiles, new car models and home renovation”, an economist at the Planning Commission said requesting anonymity.

“Yes, there are people who can’t afford extra spending but others buy them clothes, shoes and better food. At this time of the year Muslims tend to become more sensitised to the suffering of their fellow citizens. They are inclined to help make the day special for the needy”, commented another market watcher.

Published in Dawn, Business & Finance weekly, July 11th, 2016