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WITH just a few days to go for the EU referendum, it took the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox to silence the acrimonious debate, albeit for just a day. Over the past week, the polls have tightened, and the Stay campaign appears to be losing the argument. Powerful economic reasons to remain in the EU are being increasingly dismissed as scare-mongering tactics deployed by David Cameron and his team to frighten the Brexiteers into changing their mind.
One such weapon wheeled out by George Osborne, the powerful chancellor of the exchequer, was the threat to announce new expenditure cuts and higher taxes in a post-Brexit budget. This, he said, would become necessary to offset lower revenues caused by an exit from the European Union. Angry Conservatives, including Osborne’s cabinet colleague Michael Gove, rejected the argument, saying the chancellor could not unilaterally go against the party’s manifesto promise not to raise taxes.
When the campaign to convince voters began a couple of months ago, many expected the debate to be conducted in a civilised manner, and for David Cameron to continue as prime minister, no matter which way the vote went. But as recent events and speeches have shown, the Conservative Party has inflicted deep wounds on itself, wounds that will take a long time to heal. Meanwhile, if the Leave campaign wins the referendum on June 23, many feel Cameron’s position will become untenable, and that he would have to resign almost immediately.
His possible successor is Boris Johnson, the charismatic ex-mayor of London. When he joined the ranks of the Brexiteers, many cynical observers thought this was an opportunistic move that positioned him to take over from Cameron should the Leave group win. But while Johnson is the face of the Out group, it is Michael Gove who is supposed to be the brains. A close personal friend of Cameron’s, Gove has always been one of the brightest of the Leave crowd. And then there is Nigel Farage, leader of the United Kingdom Freedom Party, and instigator of the whole debate. It was his party’s surprisingly strong showing in local elections a few years ago that prompted Cameron to promise a referendum in his manifesto of 2010 in the first place.
There has always been a strongly eurosceptic element in the Conservative party, and currently well over a hundred MPs and several cabinet members are campaigning to leave the EU. Labour, by contrast, is largely for staying in, even though the party leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has been accused of being lukewarm in his effort to convince supporters to vote to stay. Polls have found that large numbers of working class Labour voters to be switching to Leave, mostly due to concerns about immigration.
In the homestretch leading up to the referendum, this has emerged as the dominant issue. Already exploited by Nigel Farage in his long campaign to leave the EU, the issue caught fire after a recent admission by the government that in 2015, net immigration into the UK had soared to around 330,000. London is a vast cosmopolitan city with a large population of people from around the world, and over the years, it has come to accept and welcome this rich cocktail of ethnic diversity. But this tolerant attitude is not typical of all of Britain. In smaller towns, many locals see their communities being swamped by an unending flood of foreigners. Many in the older generation resent their way of life being transformed by alien cultures. This is Ukip’s core support, and is now well on the way to transform the UK and its place in the world by pulling it out of the EU.
Many in the working class accuse migrants of taking their jobs, and depressing wages. Normally, these are Labour supporters, but on this issue, they diverge from their urbanised leadership that sees immigration as a positive factor. Indeed, studies show that immigrants pay more into the system by way of taxes than they take out in the form of medical services, school places and subsidised housing. Nevertheless, the fact is that one has to wait for weeks to get an appointment with a GP; schools are overflowing; and there are long waiting lists for housing. All this has built into resentment of foreigners, specially those from new East European members of the EU like Poland, Romania and Bulgaria.
And now, Brexiteers warn, there is the danger of millions of Turks having the right to enter the UK due to Turkey’s possible admission to the EU. This is despite the fact that this is a very distant eventuality. Indeed, this is just another example of how facts have been manipulated during the whole debate. Both sides have used figures to suit their positions, confusing voters with competing claims. The result is a high percentage of people who have still not decided how they’ll vote on June 23.
Another argument that resonates with the Leave camp is the notion that they have lost sovereignty to ‘unelected bureaucrats in Brussels’. Small businesses complain of endless red tape and expensive rules imposed by the EU. Johnson and his cohorts claim that once Britain is freed of these constraints, its innovative talents will be unleashed. This can only be proved by Brexit.
I have recently discovered that as a UK resident, I have a vote, and have been thinking about which side to support. On balance, I am tilting towards staying in the EU because I cannot face the stigma of being on the same side as Nigel Farage and Boris Johnson on any issue.
Published in Dawn, June 20th, 2016
