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OUR foreign policy management has long been without direction and coherence. Yet it has never been so chaotic. The events of the past few months have further highlighted the muddle. This became more evident during the latest US drone strike that killed Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Akhtar Mansour.
It took time for the Foreign Office to react to the incident. The Foreign Office appeared clueless even when the US president confirmed the death of the insurgent leader on Pakistani soil. An almost dysfunctional ministry is hardly expected to deal with the serious geopolitical challenges that this country faces.
But it is not just the Foreign Office that is to be blamed for the confusion and the embarrassment the incident has caused. Like other matters of the state, foreign policy management too suffers from multiple power centres running the show. In such a situation one cannot expect a clear and rational approach that reflects the national interest in the prevailing global reality.
Surely, foreign policy starts at home, and it is the chaos in domestic politics that is reflected on the external front too. Given his highly personalised way of governance Nawaz Sharif has kept the foreign affairs portfolio for himself, perhaps in the hope of grooming his daughter for the job in the future. Adviser Sartaj Aziz and special assistant Tariq Fatemi share the responsibility of running day-to-day affairs. There is little doubt regarding their combined abilities but neither of them is trusted with policy. It is just a ceremonial position that the adviser holds, with little of the effective power associated with the ministerial post.
Nawaz Sharif is neither Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto nor Benazir Bhutto, who took a deep interest in global affairs.
Sharif’s insistence on keeping the portfolio is intriguing given his extreme naivety and little comprehension of foreign policy issues. He is neither Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto nor Benazir Bhutto, who took a deep interest in global affairs. His lack of understanding and limited appetite for the subject is legendary. Even though the previous PPP government did not have an enviable record in governance, it at least had effective foreign ministers like Shah Mahmood Qureshi and Hina Rabbani Khar. The existing chaos in foreign policy management is largely owed to a missing foreign minister.
Even routine envoys’ conferences have not been held over the last three years, highlighting the low priority assigned to the institutionalised policymaking process. This is so despite the massive changes that have taken place in the world and the serious geopolitical challenges faced by the country in their wake. Foreign visits have become a substitute for policy. Not surprisingly, Sharif has earned the reputation of being one of the most travelled Pakistani leaders in recent years, with little to show in terms of positive outcomes.
There is no overarching vision and poor articulation, confused implementation of policies and conflicting statements have added to the chaos. The disarray was quite evident in the aftermath of the death of Mullah Mansour in the US drone strike. While the Foreign Office remained vague on the incident, the interior minister came out with a blistering attack on the United States.
It was not for the first time that Chaudhry Nisar spoke on an issue that does not directly come under his purview. He had previously issued a statement criticising the Bangladesh government on the execution of local Jamaat-i-Islami leaders. His various statements were contrary to the government’s policies on India and Afghanistan. Has he been authorised by the prime minister to give such statements, or has he been expressing his personal views?
This confusion has provided greater say to GHQ in foreign policy matters. For sure, the generals have always had their own ways of determining the country’s relations with India, Afghanistan and the United States. But the absence of any clear policy direction and vision from the civilian leadership has allowed the military a much greater role.
That also constrains any effort to embark on a pragmatic foreign policy course. The military’s security-tunnel vision and one-dimensional approach have been responsible for Pakistan’s growing regional alienation. A foreign policy driven by paranoia and narrow security concerns has been a major factor in driving the country towards a road block.
Pakistan’s Afghan predicament is a case in point. For long, our Afghan policy has remained the sole domain of the military and the ISI, with hardly any significant civilian input. That has put us into a box from where it is hard to get out of. The recent US drone strike, targeting an Afghan Taliban leader on our soil for the first time, has placed us in an embarrassing position, with no explanation to offer for how the insurgent leader was freely moving around and travelling on a Pakistani passport.
Notwithstanding the US incursion into Pakistani territory, the incident has placed Islamabad under greater international scrutiny over its links with the Afghan insurgents. It will be a serious challenge for Pakistani policymakers to deal with this complicated situation.
Sharif’s move to improve ties with India has become a major source of tension between the civil and military leaderships. The generals are unimpressed by his vision of building bridges with the Modi administration. In fact, there has been a visible hardening of the military’s position in recent months vis-à-vis the Indian prime minister’s aggressive regional diplomacy.
Friendship with China is one area where there appears to be complete unanimity between the civil and military leaderships. Over the years relations with China have strengthened, with the focus shifting from purely strategic to economic cooperation. But even that policy is largely driven by the Chinese vision. There is still no clarity in Islamabad about how we want to shape this strategic relationship to achieve the maximum benefit from our growing ties.
Foreign policy is too serious an issue to let it drift. Given the significant geopolitical developments taking place around us, there is a much greater need for a more imaginative approach that is able to pull Pakistan from the brink. But can Sharif learn a lesson from the debacle and fix this messy affair?
The writer is an author and journalist.
Twitter: @hidhussain
Published in Dawn, June 1st, 2016
