ISLAMABAD: Though the polio programme and the Ministry of National Health Services (NHS) have been continuously claiming that the polio virus will be eradicated this year, health experts believe that it will depend on how both departments deal with the virus during the current high transmission season (HTS).

The ability of the polio virus to infect children increases in high temperature due to which most of the cases are reported from May to September. The period is called the HTS. In low temperature, from October to April, the virus remains less active.

An official of the ministry said the current high transmission season will decide the fate of the polio virus in the country.

“If the polio programme takes extraordinary steps to curb the virus, the crippling disease can be eradicated from the country. Otherwise next year once again we will be claiming that the virus will be eradicated this year,” he said.

“The polio programme should ensure that not a single child is missed during vaccination campaigns because only that is how the virus can be controlled or children can be saved from its onslaught,” he said.

On the other hand, Dr Rana Safdar, head of the National Emergency Operation Centre, claims that arrangements have been made to ensure that the virus does not infect children during the high transmission season.

“The situation is in our favour. In 2014 there were as many as 16 clusters of virus all over the country due to which 306 cases were reported. In 2015 the clusters were reduced to eight and the number of new cases to 54. This year so far only one cluster, which is a mix-up of Karachi and Peshawar, has been reported,” he said.

Similarly, he said, nine cases had been detected this year so far but during the same period last year as many as 23 cases were reported.

“Another improvement is that last year 25 per cent of environmental samples were found positive but this year only 13pc of such samples have been found positive,” he added.

The environmental samples are collected from water in sewerage lines. If the polio virus is found in the water, the sample is declared positive. It shows that someone (adult or child) is carrying the polio virus in the body.

“This year 120 environmental samples from all over the country have been tested. Of them, only 14 samples were declared positive. One site each in Karachi (Gadap) and Peshawar (Shaheen Muslim Town) is coming persistently positive, indicating low immunity pockets,” Dr Safdar said.

“The recently launched inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) campaign will surely help in last sanctuaries of the virus. We expect that parents will cooperate. They should not forget that the children who are administered IPV should also be given oral polio vaccine (OPV) in every campaign,” he said.

The IPV is formed of dead viruses and administered through injection. The OPV is formed of live but weak viruses.

Published in Dawn, May 4th, 2016