IF David Cameron thought the debate over Brexit — as Britain’s exit from the European Union is popularly known as — would be a genteel and civil affair, he is due for a surprise. By naming a date —June 23 — for the referendum, he has opened a can of worms that will continue to spill their venom long after the referendum is done and dusted.

The announcement has split the Conservative Party as well as the cabinet, with members now actively campaigning for the two opposing camps. Opinion polls are showing the ‘Out’ camp with a slight lead over EU membership supporters, but there’s a large proportion of undecided voters who make the result hard to predict. According to a YouGove poll, 38pc are for leaving, 37pc for staying and 25pc are undecided.

And this slender lead is deceptive as on several economic indicators, the majority of those polled said Britain would be worse off if it left the EU. Also, people tend to vote for the status quo in referendums, unlike national elections when parties in power can and do get kicked out.

In his earlier calculus, Cameron had assumed that the ‘Leave’ campaign would be led by Nigel Farage, leader of the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip), a marginal though colourful figure in British politics. This, assumed the PM, would put many people off. But with Boris Johnson, the popular London mayor, joining the Leave campaign, the Brexit camp suddenly has a charismatic leader to rally around.

As it is, the departure of Justice Secretary Michael Gove to the Leave side was a bitter blow to Cameron. Gove, one of the more cerebral Tory cabinet members, issued an eloquent statement detailing why he had decided to part company with Cameron on this issue:

“I believe that the decisions which govern all our lives should be decided by people we choose and who we can throw out if we choose…” The problem with the EU, he continued, was that “laws which govern citizens in this country are decided by politicians from other nations who we never elected and can’t throw out”.

This issue of sovereignty rankles with many Brits who feel that their parliament, judiciary and executive are constantly being overruled by Brussels. Old, revered institutions are becoming increasingly irrelevant as European laws and rules, drafted by overpaid EU bureaucrats, are imposed across the EU without regard to local customs and traditions.

Many have been angered, for instance, by the European Court overruling decisions handed down by the highest judicial authorities in Britain. Usually, the EU’s human rights laws are cited in these judgements, but many Brits are outraged that their courts are no longer free to interpret British laws without interference from the EU.

Towering above all other considerations is the issue of immigration. Most Brits feel there are already too many immigrants from the EU and elsewhere in their country. The number of immigrants living in the UK today is about to cross eight million, with 5.18 million born outside the EU and 2.74 million having their roots in the EU. And since most of them live in cities, they are more visible and, therefore, more resented, especially in a period when jobs are scarce.

So the spectacle of hundreds of thousands of asylum-seekers and economic migrants reaching Europe from the Middle East and other dysfunctional countries raises the fear that many of them will make their way to Britain. Angela Merkel has already declared her intention to force EU member states to accept quotas on the number of these asylum-seekers they would have to accept. Although Cameron has already declared his intention to resist such a step, this will be a contentious issue should the UK stay in the EU.

Brexit would mean increased pressure for another referendum for Scotland. Already, the SNP, the ruling Scottish National Party, has declared that even if the UK votes to leave the EU, it would insist on staying in. This could only happen if the SNP can force another referendum and then win it. So in a sense, the Brexit referendum is a vote on the United Kingdom staying together.

One element missing in this debate is the fate of the large British expatriate community living in Europe. Out of 2.2 million, a million Brits live in Spain alone. Many are retired, while others work in cities from Paris to Prague. As many of them are home-owners and have access to free local medical facilities, they fear their taxes would rise if the Leave camp wins the referendum.

And should the unthinkable happen and Brits vote to leave the EU, Cameron’s political future would be decidedly bleak. Although he has said he won’t resign if the ‘In’ side loses, the reality is that he has put all his political capital on the line on the referendum. A defeat would see a crippled Cameron, with his victorious cabinet colleagues who went over to the Out camp strutting around on the national scene. It is hard to imagine Cameron retaining his authority in such a scenario.

Clearly, most EU member states would wish Britain to remain in the EU. But few were willing to make the kind of concessions Cameron was demanding. At the end of marathon negotiations, all he could take back was a conditional brake on benefits for immigrants for their first four years of working in the UK. No wonder the media were uniformly scornful of this meagre sop thrown to the British PM.

The next four months are going to see a mighty struggle, probably characterised by growing bitterness. While Labour is pretty solidly pro-EU, the rancorous debate might split the Conservative Party.

irfan.husain@gmail.com

Published in Dawn, February 29th, 2016