PAKISTAN-India relations may still be volatile, unpredictable and subject to inexplicable twists and turns. But the rest of Asia appears to be moving slowly — and uncertainly — towards a less confrontational and potentially more peaceful future.

As illustrated in recent weeks, Asian leaders are engaged in potentially transformational and forward-looking moves which, if sustained, could ease the current obsessive focus on history and help ease new rivalries.

Recent bilateral and trilateral meetings between the Chinese, Japanese and Korean leaders in Seoul, historic talks in Singapore between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwan’s leader Ma Ying-jeou as well as the Chinese-Asean agreement to hold joint drills in the South China Sea indicate another, more positive trajectory which, if maintained, has the potential to transform Asia’s prevailing “cold peace” into a more solid, long-term, stable and predictable security environment, leading possibly to the construction of a new and effective multilateral Asian security architecture.

For many Asia-watchers, the questions are simple: can expanding trade and investment integration help Asian nations move beyond historical grievances towards better political relations? What is being done to forge a political order and Asian security framework that will encourage sustained stability and trust between countries? Can Asian countries learn from Europe’s experience in reconciling with adversaries?

A turn for the worse

The answers are complicated. Aspects of Asia’s security landscape are certainly troubling, indicating that economic interdependence and strong trade ties — and growing intra-regional tourism — are not enough to erase antagonisms. This is the case for Japan-China disputes over territory (the Senkaku/Diaoyo Islands), over history and over Japan’s new defence posture. Growing economic links between China and Asean have not eased tensions over conflicting territorial claims in the resource-rich South China Sea between China and Vietnam or China and the Philippines.

Little progress has been made on negotiating an Asean-China Code of Conduct for the South China Sea. Relations between Seoul and Tokyo are still soured over the legacy of World War II and especially the issue of “comfort women”. North Korea continues to cause worry. Although good at the moment, cross-straits relations could take a turn for the worse.

Opinion is divided on whether Asian nations can successfully manage these and other security challenges. For some, a conflict between ascending China and the US and its Asian allies is inevitable. Others believe equally strongly that close economic tie-ups between Beijing and Washington — and Beijing and the rest of Asia — make wars unthinkable. Also, Asian interdependence goes beyond trade and investments and covers questions related to the environment, pandemics, disaster relief, human rights and social media.

The rhetoric, posturing and manoeuvering are often strident and Asia is certainly messy, complicated, often conflictual and ever-changing. But it also has the potential for resolving its complexities through cooperation and networking.
Importantly, Asians have so far managed to keep their disputes under control. Fears of “miscalculation” leading to a wider conflict in the South China Sea, for instance, have not materialised.

Building trust

There may not be an “Asian Nato” or an OSCE-like structure in Asia but the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) with its security fora such as the Asean Regional Forum (ARF) and Asean Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) plays a pivotal role in seeking to defuse tensions. The East Asia Summit (EAS), whose members, in addition to Asean, now include the US and Russia as well as China, India, Australia and New Zealand — and which the European Union wants to join — is set to become an even more influential security player.

South Korea has thrashed out a Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative for peace and security. Also, even as leaders and their aides engage in bellicose language, other state and non-state actors, academics, business leaders and civil society representatives continue to work together to try and bring long-term peace in Asia.

Still, Asia lacks a firm multilateral security mechanism to ease tensions and enable durable peace — and reassure the world. Interpretations may vary on Asia’s future, but there is little doubt the region needs to back up its deep economic and growing social connections with equally strong moves to sidestep history, manage new rivalries through improved and sustained dialogues on security. Building trust and confidence is vital.

It’s too soon to celebrate, but the Nov 1 meeting between Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and his Japanese counterpart Abe in Seoul, with its promises of moving on from the past, could potentially herald a much-needed rapprochement between the two neighbours.

In addition, and equally importantly, a long-overdue trilateral summit bringing together Chinese and Japanese leaders with President Park Geun-hye of South Korea, the first such meeting since 2012, promised efforts for peace and stability in northeast Asia. Agreement was also reached to push for a resumption of stalled talks with the US, Russia and North Korea on the latter’s nuclear programme.

Significantly, the three countries announced a new round of free trade agreement negotiations in December. Last but not least, for the first time since 1945, President Xi Jinping of China and Taiwan’s leader Ma Ying-jeou will meet on Nov 7 in Singapore in a milestone move which, according to George Yeo, a former Singaporean foreign minister, could “open a new chapter in the history of China and the peaceful revival of the Chinese nation”.

Asian nations have managed to maintain peace and steer clear of armed conflict — but the security landscape in the region remains volatile and uncertain. It is also becoming increasingly complex. Conventional security threats, competing nationalisms and rising arms spending mix uneasily with non-traditional security threats ranging from climate change to illegal immigration.

Asians are, however, aware of the region’s security fragilities and know that the peaceful rise of Asia is critical for the region itself but also for a globalised, interdependent and globalised world. It is time that India and Pakistan followed their example.

—The writer is Dawn’s correspondent in Brussels

Published in Dawn, November 7th, 2015

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