THE so-called final phase of Zarb-i-Azb is under way in North Waziristan, 14 months after the operation began.

Thus far it appears the military has reclaimed much of the terrain that it had set out to do and it is certainly the case that the rate and intensity of terrorist attacks inside the country have gone down since the operation began.

But, as ever, in the long war against militancy, immediate successes can be undone if the next steps are not prosecuted with equal vigour and intensity.

To begin with, the fight in the Shawal region is expected to be very tough, according to the military and what the militants themselves have suggested. It is not so much a last stand by the militants as the fact that the region is difficult for armies to operate in, the dense foliage and mountainous terrain putting small groups of militants at an advantage, at least when it comes to evading the full force of the military power that is to be used against them.

This challenge ahead is indeed cause for sombre reflection even as the country remembers those who have already fallen in the war against militancy.

The battle will also be complicated by the Afghan question. Earlier, too many militants escaped into Afghanistan and while the military has repeatedly claimed that this is less likely to occur in the current fight, only the days and weeks ahead will confirm whether that is in fact true.

Unhappily, Pak-Afghan relations have taken a downward turn yet again in recent weeks and it remains to be seen how much cooperation is extended by the Afghan side to interdict or help capture North Waziristan-based militants who flee into Afghanistan.

As the sorry tale of Mullah Fazlullah has underscored, unless the Taliban leadership is captured or eliminated and unless cross-border militant movements are curbed the relative peace inside Pakistan since Zarb-i-Azb began may not last long.

It always has been and very much remains so in the interest of both Afghanistan and Pakistan to cooperate in the fight against militancy — even if the two states sometimes behave as if that were not the case.

Finally, there is the question of the Haqqani Network and US demands. While the military has claimed not to have made any distinction in the fight against militants in North Waziristan, it also appears to be the case that the Haqqanis have been encouraged to play a more direct role in the Afghan Taliban leadership structure.

Furthermore, while the timing of the announcement of the Shawal operation may have nothing to do with the US government’s resolve to withhold Coalition Support Funds, there remains far too much that is unknown about how the military makes decisions vital to securing the country. More transparency in policy and especially the results of goals is needed.

Published in Dawn, August 22nd, 2015

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